Lukewarm Stove: Shark or Arrieta for Cubs? Mets/Dodgers Battle for Bauer? Hader Asking Price? Arenado Dreaming? More
Oh boy. Have you been paying attention? Because the last couple days have been quite a ride for Cubs news, rumors, and transactions, and I don’t think it’s over yet. Things are actually happening.
Not going in any particular order, Tom Ricketts has reportedly increased the 2021 budget for player payroll, the Cubs have signed Joc Pederson and former top prospect Kohl Stewart to big league deals, Jake Arrieta is throwing for teams and there could be mutual interest for a reunion in Chicago, Jeff Samardzija is throwing for the Cubs, and direct Cubs rumors persist with Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz, Carlos Rodon, and Kolten Wong.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have re-signed Adam Wainwright and could be on the precipice of trading for Nolan Arenado.
Stuff!
There’s a Shark in Chicago and Other Puns
Parsing words is always a dangerous game when it comes to rumors, but when I read Patrick Mooney’s latest on the Cubs efforts with respect to Jeff Samardzija, it’s hard not to get a sense that there’s something there – perhaps something a little more than just regular old exhausting every option:
Mooney: The Cubs are among a group of teams expected to have a presence at Jeff Samardzija’s workout on Friday as they continue to assess their options on the pitching side. If healthy — and if the price is right — Samardzija could be the type of veteran starter who absorbs innings and brings a competitive personality into the Wrigley Field clubhouse. While the Cubs haven’t narrowed their focus on Samardzija — and his free-agent process is still developing — there’s an obvious history and a local connection there with the ex-Cub/former Notre Dame star.
If I had to guess, this isn’t going to be an either/or thing with respect to guys like Samardzija and Jake Arrieta (and in whomever else they’ve shown interest at this tier – there are tons). Simply stated, the Cubs are going to need someone to eat some innings this season – even if the rest of the pitchers all work out great. Going from a 60-game season to a 162-game season is going to take its toll. Does that mean the Cubs will add ALL older-veteran-innings-eating-nostalgia types? No. I’m sure they want some guys with some upside for a more medium-term stay with the team if it comes to that (Carlos Rodon? Mike Foltynewicz? Chris Archer?), hence the Kohl Stewart signing.
I’m just saying, the Cubs are very clearly and openly looking to add multiple starters:
Cubs still looking for starters to fill out rotation. Budget is limited but plenty of vets left on the market.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
Arrieta Pitching, Mets Interested – Also, Other Moves to Make
Speaking of Arrieta, the Mets are attending his session today, and seem to have some legitimate interest in him now that Steven Matz has been cleared out of the rotation and off the books. Obviously, Trevor Bauer is still an option (a more likely one, I’d wager) and Jackie Bradley Jr. is still a target now that they’ve missed out on George Springer, but Andy Martino says it pretty plainly, the Mets moved Matz’s salary out to add another player:
Make no mistake: This makes it a near certainty they will make another expenditure, whether it’s Bauer, Bradley, bullpen or other. They Matz trade as lined up with that intention.
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) January 28, 2021
Bauer, the Mets, and the Dodgers
To that end, it sure seems like Trevor Bauer to the Mets is something that’s going to happen. According to Jon Heyman and Andy Martino, the Mets currently have an offer out to Bauer in the 3-4 year range with opt-outs included, but for something less than the $36 million average annual value Bauer is seeking (because OBVIOUSLY). Bauer reportedly wants a longer deal than that – Heyman mentions the Cole/Strasburg range, which, again … LOL – but that’s the status of things for now.
Of course, the Mets aren’t the only option:
Bauer derby could shape up as Mets vs. Dodgers unless mystery teams emerge (always possible). Padres showed interest before their 3 pitching deals but also floated 3/4 year deal, which didn’t fly. @martinonyc had 1st Mets offer estimates
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 28, 2021
The Dodgers have been big on these short-term, high AAV offers the past few years, so I could see them making some sense given what Bauer is seeking. But I just don’t see how Bauer believes he’s going to get a record AAV on anything more than an extremely short-term deal.
Josh Hader Trade Offers
You know what’s been surprising this offseason? The lack of trade rumors for guys like Craig Kimbrel and Josh Hader. There have been some, mind you, but not a ton. Today, that could be changing, though, at least with respect to the Brewers closer.
Robert Murray writes that “The Milwaukee Brewers continue to listen to trade inquiries for reliever Josh Hader,” though they do not feel as though they have to trade him. And, indeed, the asking price, according to Murray’s sources, is absurdly high:
The asking price for Hader, according to sources familiar with the situation, is a combination of both major-league players and prospects.
“We won’t be in on that,” one American League executive said.
“Don’t waste your time,” another executive said.
Michael’s Musings
• Earlier this offseason I told Cubs fans to look forward and forget the past … and the Cubs got in a time machine and pretended it was 2015:
Drop the banana … or, you know, sign Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Shelby Miller, Matt Duffy, Joc Pederson, Kohl Stewart and pretend it's 2015!
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) January 29, 2021
• Can we prevent the Joc Pederson misinformation campaign before it begins?
In nearly 1,500 PAs from 2017-2020, new #Cubs outfielder Joc Pederson has a 97 K%+
That means he's struck out 3% *LESS THAN* the league average for four straight seasons. Update your #Facts, my friends.
Same period:
Yelich: 99 K%+
Correa: 99 K%+
Bellinger: 99 K%+— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) January 29, 2021
• I do remember being so nervous he was going to steal the 2015 NL ROY award away from Kris Bryant back in 2015. Do you remember how insane his first-half was? He hit 20 homers before the All-Star break with a 137 wRC+:
The only time I ever hated Joc Pederson is when he was stealing KB’s thunder in 2015 for NL rookies.
Side note: Cubs now have 3 of the 6 finalists for 2015 NL Rookie of the Year on the roster (Bryant, Joc, and Duffy).
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) January 29, 2021
• This is so incredibly unrealistic I probably shouldn’t even put it in writing, but there have been precious few reasons for optimism this offseason that I just want to manufacture some dream-big vibes. Just leave me alone. So here goes: *IF* third baseman Matt Carpenter – and his $18.5M salary in 2021 – was expected to go back to the Rockies as part of a Nolan Arenado deal, and *IF* the Cubs payroll did just loosen up a bit, and *IF* those prior reports between the Cubs and Rockies on an Arenado trade last year (and trickling into this offseason) were ever true, then MAYBE you can see how Kris Bryant and his $19.5M salary, but more favorably projectable 2021 performance could be a comp for Carpenter in a similar swap with the Cubs. There’s still probably no chance the Cubs would be willing to absorb the net on whatever’s left of Arenado’s six-year, $199M deal, but just imagine Arenado’s glove at third, Javy Baez’s glove at short, and Anthony Rizzo’s glove at first. Now imagine the Cubs actually also sign Kolten Wong … that’s four Glove Glove favorites around the infield. Now wake up, because come on … (Fun though, right?).
• The Cardinals say they want to bring back Wong …
Cards would also like to bring back Kolten Wong and Yadier Molina, another St. Louis legend.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
• … but does Wong want to go back to St. Louis?
https://twitter.com/KoltenWong/status/1354950188872339467?s=20
• Here’s a stray thought based on the rumor below: If the Braves also checked in on Arenado, you do have to wonder if they’d be more seriously interested in trading for Kris Bryant. And if the Cubs are suddenly less concerned with shedding every single penny in the Bryant trade, you do have to wonder if a team like the Braves might suddenly be more able to swing a deal the Cubs would consider (i.e., Cubs eating salary for a better return).
Braves have checked in on Arenado, too. Probably a long shot. Rockies want big haul back but don’t want to eat much $ (that part makes some sense as he may opt out after 2021 anyway). #STLCards need may be greater than Braves.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
Odds and Ends
• Oh, hey! Matt Moore! I remember him. After throwing 85.0 innings of 2.65 ERA ball in Japan, Moore is returning to the big leagues on a guaranteed, $3 million deal with the Phillies. That’s pretty nuts. Good for him. The Phillies are probably not done yet, my friends.
Matt Moore, returning from Japan, has 1-year $3M deal with Phillies. Plus incentives. 1st @JSalisburyNBCS @Ken_Rosenthal
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
• Old friend alert:
Alex Avila gets $1.5M on Nats deal
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 29, 2021
• Not sure we could say that definitely forecloses any Willson Contreras Nats rumors (the Nats could simply include Yan Gomes in a deal the other way, and Avila would be the back-up), but we don’t particularly like those rumors anyway.
