Chicago Cubs Signing Righty Trevor Williams to a One-Year Deal (UPDATE)

The Cubs have reportedly added another buy-low/reclamation starter to the fold, joining Kohl Stewart and Shelby Miller: former Pirates righty Trevor Williams.

CI’s Evan Altman with the report, later confirmed by Jesse Rogers:

Williams, 28, was set free by the Pirates earlier this offseason rather than keeping him in arbitration. He has been among the many options we discussed this past week for the Cubs to target, and he’s certainly going to be able to give you innings (he’s been healthy). But the question is whether he can get back some of what made him so effective in 2017-18:

(via FanGraphs)

On first blush, it’s not hard to see some bad luck in there, but you can also tell that Williams is a command and control guy who stated giving up just a tick more walks, and a lot more dingers. We’ll have to dig in.

For now, here’s how Bryan framed the idea with what the Cubs could do for Williams:

Trevor Williams

What makes him unique? Among the 96 pitchers to throw 750 pitches in 2020, Williams had the 20th-lowest release height (5.5 ft). And among pitchers that have a low release height (say 5.75 feet or lower), Williams had the sixth-longest extension. That combination is rare.

How didn’t his last team do a good enough job of emphasizing that? With the combination listed above, generally speaking you’d ask a pitcher to throw his hard stuff up in the zone, where the difference between his actual and perceived velocity will play the best against hitters. Williams didn’t do that enough with his four-seam fastball, as I see using the pitch highlighter on Baseball Savant:

His 144 (roughly, a third) highest four-seam fastballs: .247 wOBA allowed, 29.7 whiff%

His 148 lowest four-seam fastballs: .486 wOBA allowed, 11.1 whiff%

How can the Cubs emphasize it better? This is a flat Vertical Approach Angle guy, pitching too often like a steep one. Let’s cut out the low four-seamers, especially given that on low-in-the-zone pitches, we can go with a sinker with above-average vertical drop.

Also, I notice Williams has thrown just 99 curveballs in three years. We-the-Cubs love curveballs, specifically the knuckle-curve, our Pitch Lab’s speciality. But maybe, just maybe, Williams discovered something himself late last year yourself? He’s thrown 14 curveballs with more than 2350 rpm in his career, and half of them came in September 2020. Let’s build on that.

Williams might be the best bet among the group the Cubs were looking at to give you 120-ish useful innings in 2021, though he’ll have to be remade a bit if he’s going to give you more. I kinda love the possibility, though, given his relative youth and variety of pitches. There’s a whole lot there for the Cubs to work with.

Mild bonus? If the Cubs really dig Williams this year, they’d be able to keep him via arbitration for 2022, also.

Also, Williams is very funny, as you’ll come to see.

Elsewhere, the Cubs still figure to try to add one more starting pitcher, probably on a minor league deal. Among the guys they’re looking at: Jake Arrieta, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Archer, and Mike Foltynewicz. Really, any of those four would be a really nice add on a minor league deal if the Cubs can pull it off.

UPDATE: This is actually a pretty healthy guarantee – Rodon got $3 million – which makes me believe the market for back-end starters has really ticked up lately, presumably with greater confidence about fan attendance:

Altman later clarified, by the way, that there might not actually be that much, if any, cash deferred in the deal.

So, ultimately, Williams gets half of what Jon Lester got from the Nationals, if you were comparing the two deals. For the intangible, clubhouse stuff, you’d assuredly rather have Lester. For the higher floor in performance in 2021, you’d also probably have Lester. For the upside? Eh, I think Williams probably has the slightly better chance to be “good” in 2021 (and, again, the Cubs get him for 2022 if they want, as well).

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

SEC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

The Friday postseason college basketball slate includes two games featuring an SEC team in action. Among those games is the Creighton Bluejays playing the Tennessee Volunteers. Here are our recomendations for the best bets on action throughout the conference.How to...

Big 12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big 12 squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on Big 12 Games[lasso...

ACC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are two games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature ACC squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on ACC Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best ACC...

Big East Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are three games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big East squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Creighton Bluejays versus the Tennessee Volunteers.How to Bet on Big East Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"...

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Atlanta Braves open their season as -125 favorites in a road matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSSO.Spencer Strider takes the mound for Atlanta while Zack Wheeler is Philadelphia's starter for the...

Washington State vs. Illinois Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Two hot teams meet when the Washington State Cougars (21-14) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (17-15) on April 1, 2024. The Cougars will put their three-game win streak on the line against the Fighting Illini, who have won three straight.On...

Villanova vs. Penn State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Villanova Wildcats (21-12) will try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Penn State Lady Lions (22-12) on April 1, 2024. The Lady Lions have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Villanova...

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-110) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Mets. First pitch is on Friday at 1:40 PM ET on SNY, live from Citi Field.Freddy Peralta...

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Atlanta Braves (0-0) and the Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) match up on Friday at Citizens Bank Park for Opening Day. First pitch is at 3:05 PM ET.The Braves will look to Spencer Strider versus the Phillies and Zack Wheeler.Braves vs....

more cubs news