The More I Dig Into the Cubs Kohl Stewart Signing, the More I Like It

Because of the way the second half of last week played out, it feels like the Cubs’ signing of righty Kohl Stewart got short-shrift. I wanted to add a little more context and info to the move.

Stewart is kind of an odd bird when it comes to signings. He’s not really being signed to be a sure-fire rotation competition piece, since he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 (opted out), and has limited big league experience before that. He’s not really a mere minor league signing, though, because he has more pedigree and upside than you usually see in those deals. Oh, and also, it quite literally isn’t a minor league signing. Stewart got a spot on the 40-man roster, and a big league split deal that’ll pay him $700,000 when he’s in the majors, and $150,000 when he’s in the minors (AP). In other words, he got quite a bit more of an enticement than a typical minor league signing.

To that end, when I think of where to categorize Stewart as one of the Cubs’ pitchers going forward, I kinda feel like he’s more of an experienced prospect than anything else. He’s roughly in that same age range as the Cubs’ AAA starting options (26), he’s still got minor league options left, and, again, his big league experience is really limited (barely 60 innings total between 2018 and 2019).

The Cubs signed another AAA starting-ish pitching prospect, joining the Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele-type group. That’s pretty much the better conception of this one.

And even from there, it’s more a scouting/transformation play than grabbing a guy you have high confidence in his ability to contribute, because the reality is that Stewart hasn’t actually even been all that productive at AAA or AA in recent years:

(via FanGraphs)

So you see the results there, including atrocious strikeout and walk rates, even in the minors, and you’re like … how is this guy getting a big league deal and being viewed as a prospect type who might still have upside?

Well, again, it’s because scouts have liked Stewart from his young days, which made him the 4th overall pick in 2013 draft, and saw him befuddle batters with weak contact in the lower minors even when he was a teenager.

Sometimes a guy has all the things you look for and just doesn’t put it all together in the results department. But if you get a chance to get the bones into a new organization and maybe put your own stamp on the development? When the upside is what the scouts can all see? Sure, it’s easily worth taking a relatively low-cost chance. You’re talking about a guy who has used SIX pitches in the big leagues already – it’s not at all hard to imagine playing with that pitch mix, tightening it up, and improving just one or two pitches, and suddenly you have something.

Consider some data points that Brendan Miller got into over at Cubs Insider: Stewart’s curveball moves more than 93% of all curveballs, and his changeup drops more than 90% of other changeups. The curveball also put up 79th percentile spin in 2019, per Statcast. And his slider has actually been his most valuable pitch in the big leagues, with a value per 100 pitches that would actually place it among the top 20 starters in baseball if he’d thrown enough to qualify. He netted whiffs on it 1/3 of the time he threw it.

You don’t just put up movement like that or get results like that if you don’t have some talent. For whatever reason, though, Stewart has barely thrown those pitches in the big leagues, instead going extremely heavy with his two-seamer. That’s netted him a solid groundball rate and limited homers (thus he’s a FIP-beater), but if you have wipeout pitches available to you, maybe they can be deployed a little more aggressively? Not that you need to get him out of his zone as a contact manager – Cubs obviously have had a lot of success with those guys – but it’s hard for me to accept that a guy with a variety of nasty pitches is putting up a 12.7% strikeout rate(!).

The more I dig in on Stewart, the more I really think the Cubs hit a home run with this signing. By that, I do not mean he’s likely to contribute, let alone break out. There’s a reason he was freely available, and didn’t even get $1 million+ to sign. Instead, I mean that if you are an organization that now fancies itself able to get the most out of pitchers who haven’t quite gotten it to click in other organizations, then landing a guy who clearly has so much talent – and so much pitch diversity – is a big win. Get Stewart in the door, put him in the Pitch Lab, and see how he’s looking at AAA Iowa by midseason.

Or, heck, see what happens if he’s tightened up to a two-or-three-pitch mix and cranks up the fastball in relief …

In any case, what’s nicest about the Stewart signing is that if you do manage to unlock a little something and he becomes a productive big leaguer, he can remain under team control for up to five seasons.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Latest News

MVC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | April 2

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Tuesday that feature MVC squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Utah Utes versus the Indiana State Sycamores.How to Bet on MVC Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best...

Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | April 2

There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Tuesday postseason college basketball schedule, the Utah Utes versus the Indiana State Sycamores. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best...

Marlins vs. Pirates: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

In their season opener on Friday, Andrew Jacob Puk will take the mound for the Miami Marlins against Martin Perez and the Pittsburgh Pirates, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET at LoanDepot park.See how to watch the Miami-Pittsburgh...

Warriors vs. Hornets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Golden State Warriors (38-34) hit the court against the Charlotte Hornets (18-54) as double-digit, 11.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under of 218 points.Dig into the best bets...

Pacers vs. Lakers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Los Angeles Lakers (41-32) are 2.5-point underdogs as they look to extend a five-game win streak when they visit the Indiana Pacers (41-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The game airs at 7:00 PM ET on...

Clippers vs. Magic Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Los Angeles Clippers (45-27) are slightly favored (by 1 point) to continue a three-game road win streak when they visit the Orlando Magic (42-30) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET. The point total in the matchup...

Wizards vs. Pistons Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Detroit Pistons (12-61) are slight underdogs (by 2.5 points) to stop a five-game road losing streak when they visit the Washington Wizards (14-59) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET. The over/under is 229 in the matchup.Check...

Rome Odunze Has a Visit With the Bears Coming Soon

If you aren't already familiar with Rome Odunze's name or game, your time will come. The University of Washington wide receiver is one of the top prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. At this point of the year, I've officially...

Matt Eberflus Opens a Window to the Chicago Bears Draft Plans

NFL coaches are notoriously tight-lipped. And in his first two seasons as Bears head coach, Matt Eberflus has been no different. But every once in a while you'll catch Eberflus peel back the curtain and provide some insight regarding the...

How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies: Live Stream or on TV

Spencer Strider will take the mound for the Atlanta Braves when they square off against starter Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 3:05 PM ET.The article below will provide you...

more cubs news