The Cubs Have So Many Impactful Players Heading Into a Walk Year – Does It Matter?

In a pre-Spring Training piece at The Athletic, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney get into a range of topics facing the Cubs here at the outset of the 2021 season. Good, thorough read.

A section that stood out to me – it’s something Michael got into recently, based on comments by Jed Hoyer – was the bit about having guys over-perform in walk years. Specifically, The Athletic mentions Hoyer’s assertion that it can be a positive to have guys in their final year before free agency as a boost to performance. Setting aside the fact that it’s always felt like a back-handed diss on guys who have signed extensions or free agent contracts, The Athletic generally describes some truth in the matter: “There’s more than just the anecdotal evidence Hoyer cites here that confirms this theory. The contract-year phenomenon is something that’s been backed up by studies, with at least one suggesting that a bump of 4 to 6 percent in OPS is expected in a walk year.”

Obviously that bump would be substantial in a sport where the margins of offensive performance can be so slim, but it also would be not at all uniform across players. Some guys might push a little extra hard in the offseason, and thus might see a little extra performance boost during the course of the season. Some other guys might just be themselves like always, but because of the age they are in their walk year, they see a little better performance along the natural aging curve. And some other guys might see no impact whatsoever, while others might be impacted negatively by the seeming pressure to perform.

That is all to say, I have mixed feelings on the concept, though it stood out to me to see the studies referenced with hard numbers attached. My quick poking around the webz landed on a PECOTA-based study that suggested a slight bump in performance for upwards of 60% of players in their walk year was possible, and a college data analysis that suggests performance slightly declines after signing a free agent contract (which is not quite the same thing), the latter of which referenced multiple other studies with mixed results. The majority of those referenced studies – including the 4-6% one apparently mentioned by The Athletic – suggested a slight overall bump in a player’s walk year. So, while it wouldn’t be uniform across players, in the aggregate, maybe there’s a little something there. Aging and human nature? Something like that? I guess it’s not crazy or inappropriate to say that players would like to earn as much money as possible while they are playing baseball, so it’s not crazy that they could, at the margins, impact that performance in a slight way when there could be more money on the line.

(Flip side, devil’s advocate: aren’t you still strongly financially incentivized to perform in every single year except maybe the seasons that come after you sign a contract you know is your final contract? I just kinda don’t love this topic, because it’s too easy to stick some holes in the seeming logic … but it comes up so often and is so prevalent on this year’s Cubs that I had to discuss.)

Against that whole backdrop, I couldn’t help but think about the sheer volume of important players the Cubs have this year who could be heading into free agency after 2021. If the performance bump concept actually plays out for a majority of the Cubs’ walking group, hey, maybe the team is indeed in for a pleasant surprise.

Here are all the Cubs who are heading into their walk year:

Kris Bryant
Anthony Rizzo
Javy Báez
Craig Kimbrel
Zach Davies
Joc Pederson
Jake Arrieta
Andrew Chafin
Austin Romine
Dan Winkler

You could theoretically include guys like Trevor Williams and Jake Marisnick, who were signed to one-year deals as free agents, but who can be controlled via arbitration for another year. (Note: mutual options can be disregarded, since the incentive to hit free agency on a big platform season would be the same. I also disregarded Kimbrel’s $16 million club option for these purposes, since, again, under this way of thinking, he’d still be incentivized to have a big year and get that sizable option payout.)

That’s a whole lot of your most important players staring at their final season before free agency. Maybe it’ll matter in the aggregate. Maybe it won’t. But it’s definitely, by far, the most impactful group of walk-year players the Cubs have had in my recent memory.

None of that is to say you build a team, strategically, around the concept of a walk-year bump. For one thing, you want a little more longevity than that for your organization. For another thing, it’s not as if the Cubs haven’t wanted to extend many of their players, tacitly acknowledging that the walk-year bump thing is more like a tiny silver lining to a net negative situation, rather than a strategy you affirmatively deploy.

So that’s where I land. This whole thing probably matters a little bit, but I’m not sure it is a net good thing. And if the Cubs were to extend Javy Báez tomorrow, it’s not as if I would suddenly be writing about how much worse he’s now going to be in 2021.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

In their season opener on Friday, Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field.Keep reading to find out how to watch the Arizona-Colorado...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Logan Allen will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians when they square off against starter Ross Stripling and the Oakland Athletics in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.Find out how to watch the...

How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

In their season opener on Friday, Julio Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners play Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.Keep reading to see how to watch the Seattle-Boston matchup...

How to Watch Padres vs. Giants: Live Stream or on TV

On Friday, the San Diego Padres (2-1) take on Jorge Soler and the San Francisco Giants (0-1), with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at PETCO Park.Keep reading to find out how to watch the San Diego-San Francisco matchup...

How to Watch Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Live Stream or on TV

The Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) host Paul Goldschmidt and the St. Louis Cardinals (0-1) on Friday, with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET.Keep reading to see how to watch the Los Angeles-St. Louis matchup below.When is Dodgers vs. Cardinals and...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Astros vs. Yankees: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The New York Yankees (1-0), led by Juan Soto, visit Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros (0-1) at 8:10 PM ET on Friday.Find out how to watch the Houston-New York matchup below.When is Astros vs. Yankees and when does it...

How to Watch Rays vs. Blue Jays: Live Stream or on TV

The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) visit Yandy Diaz and the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) on Friday, with first pitch at 6:50 PM ET.Keep reading to see how to watch the Tampa Bay-Toronto matchup below.When is Rays vs. Blue Jays and...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

more cubs news