NEWSLETTER
A shortstop market data point here, though you want to be careful not to take TOO much away from it, since we don’t quite know the state of talks.
The Houston Astros apparently tried to get Carlos Correa to sign the Xander Bogaerts extension:
Astros offered superstar SS Carlos Correa about $120M for 6 years, and no surprise, to this point there’s no sign of traction. Assuming no deal occurs, Correa, 26 now, will be the youngest in a great free agent class. Astros did get McCullers done at $85M/5, so credit them there.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 24, 2021
Bogaerts’ deal, signed before the 2019 season when he was a year away from free agency at age 27, always figured to be the foundation for comps in the upcoming shortstop free agent class (we’ve discussed it many times in relation to Javy Báez). The challenge it presents, though, is that it was viewed as overly team friendly the day it was signed, and then Bogaerts got even better in 2019 and 2020.
Which is to say, it’s not a surprise that the Astros might start there for Correa, but that he might not see it as a reasonable starting place. Consider that Correa (26) is a year younger than Bogaerts was at that time, and has also already pocketed quite a bit more in career earnings (and his top overall pick signing bonus). Correa has also been a good bit better offensively – at least earlier on – and might project to have more offensive upside than Bogaerts, with similar defensive value.
The flip side, though, is that while Bogaerts has been very healthy, Correa hasn’t played more than 110 games since 2016(!). There’s a lot of upside there, yes, but all the injuries have piled up. Again, I can see why the Astros went to the Bogaerts deal, even if I can also see why Correa hasn’t signed it.
Any impact on a reasonable price tag for Javy Báez? I don’t see Correa and Báez as particularly great comps, as Báez is a couple years older and doesn’t really offer the same kind of bat as Correa. Instead, Báez offers better health and an elite glove, which probably raises his floor, even if the ceiling on Correa is much higher. Which is to say, Correa saying no to $120 million over six years doesn’t really tell me too much about whether Báez should get that much, and/or should say no to it. Unfortunately, Báez’s horrible 2020 season – and all the legit excuses that you can make for it – really complicates matters, too.
Generally speaking, if both Correa and Báez signed extensions today, I would expect Correa’s to be for considerably more money, and a big part of that is this: if each went out and had a fantastic and fully healthy 2021 season and then hit free agency, Correa would have an argument for $250+ million. Báez, who again is two years older than Correa and is without even close to the same offensive track record, would probably not approach $200 million even after a huge 2021 season. The two are simply in very different spots. (Ditto Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor, and maybe Trevor Story. I *love* Javy and want the Cubs to extend him, but right now, he projects as a pretty clear fourth or fifth-place option in that free agent class at shortstop.)
