Today, FiveThirtyEight dropped its data-intensive model for the MLB season ahead, pegging the playoff/divisional/World Series odds for every MLB team. It’ll update from here after every game.
This preseason iteration, as you might expect, ain’t crazy about the Chicago Cubs. Although they are listed second in the NL Central, their playoff odds (32%) are rather low, and fall a good clip behind the top-listed Milwaukee Brewers (45%). More surprisingly, the Cubs’ odds to win the NL Central are just 22%, which means 10 percentage points comes from them taking a Wild Card spot? I know the unbalanced schedule could help them in a weak NL Central, but boy, I’d be REALLY hard pressed to say a Central team is going to get one of the two Wild Cards this year.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are at 34% to win the division, and the Cardinals and Reds are each at 21%, basically tied with the Cubs. The Pirates get a 1% chance, which seems awfully generous.
As for their currently-projected record, the Cubs are at 82-80, which makes sense on paper given the roster, but let me offer you this: the Cubs will either have a slightly better record than that (because they win early and keep on competing/winning) or a much worse record than that (because they lose early and sell off). I think either 86-76 or 74-88 (for examples) are a much more likely outcome for this Cubs team than 82-80.
In a relative sense, though, I don’t really have a problem with the four Central teams being bunched up, or the Brewers being the team who projects out as the best of the four. It’s all close if you’re being honest. Cubs probably have the highest ceiling, but also are right there among the low floors if things really go south.
The Dodgers sit on top of the pile at 103-59, which is just a bonkers projection for a baseball team preseason. It’s consistent with other systems, though, as well as the sportsbooks. They are just that loaded.
Check out the full slate of teams and projections and odds here:
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁
🥁—
Our 2021 MLB predictions –> https://t.co/wfcR7CfqYI
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) March 30, 2021