The Pirates last (and only) win of the season came on Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs.
After that, they dropped two in a row to Chicago — Arrieta v. Anderson (just like their follow-up loss on Thursday) and Keller v. Davies (just like their other rematch today) — and were obliterated by the Reds in three straight. But now’s not the time to worry about the quality of that franchise. The Cubs need to win every single winnable game early in the season, because if they’re not clear playoff contenders come the middle of June, the daily #hugwatch will be in full effect.
Fortunately, I like the Cubs chances in Davies v. Keller Part II: Electric Boogalo.
In his first start of the year, Keller relied on a healthy dose of mid-90s fastballs and 87-MPH sliders, but patience from the Cubs hitters led to 4 walks (Happ, Bryant, Rizzo x2) and ultimately 3 runs in just 3.0 IP. Zach Davies, by contrast, fared a lot better, scattering 4 hits and 3 walks over 5.2 innings of two-run baseball. More than half of his plate appearances started off with a strike and his whiff rate was up over 10%, which is really excellent for him on both counts.
I also think the Cubs will stand to benefit more from an extra, recent look at Keller, with whom they’re less familiar relative to the Pirates and Davies (who saw them plenty during his time with the Brewers).
Davies v. Pirates: 15 games, 76.2 IP
Keller v. Cubs: 4 games, 15.0 IP
It’s not like that’s a HUGE deal, but I do think there’s a reason young pitchers tend to have a good first slate of games – no one knows exactly what to expect. The more familiar you are with a guys stuff, the better chance you have, no matter how nasty he is.
Happ homered off Keller in that game, but has recorded just 1 hit since. His five walks are helping his cause (he’s still got a .318 OBP), but it would be nice to see him pop off today. Let’s go Cubs.
Game Info
Pittsburgh Pirates (1-6) at Chicago Cubs (4-3) – Saturday, April 10th at 5:35 CT on Marquee Sports Network, 670 The Score
Starting Pitchers
Pirates: Mitch Keller (R)
versus
Cubs: Zach Davies (R)
Chicago Cubs (Lineup Discussion):
1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Willson Contreras, C
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Kris Bryant, 3B
5. Joc Pederson, LF
6. Javy Baez, SS
7. Jason Heyward, RF
8. David Bote, 2B
9. Zach Davies, P
Pittsburgh Pirates:
1. Adam Frazier, 2B
2. Phillip Evans, 3B
3. Bryan Reynolds, LF
4. Colin Moran, 1B
5. Erik Gonzalez, SS
6. Gregory Polanco, RF
7. Jacob Stallings, C
8. Anthony Alford, CF
9. Mitch Keller, P