NEWSLETTER
If you don’t count the second inning last night, as REAL baseball fans don’t, then the Cubs won 2-1. Great game. Great game.
• In all seriousness, last night’s game kinda spotlighted everything we already think/fear about this team, so I suppose that’s why I don’t have much of a BIG reaction. I think the starting rotation is full of guys who can be solid, but who are going to have games where they get knocked around because they aren’t elite stuff/velo guys. Gotta have that max command, and when you don’t, the risk of implosion is real. I think the bullpen is pretty darn solid, and have since the offseason. I just like the options the Cubs have brought in and carried over. I think the offense is full of extremely high-variance guys, who’ll vacillate between great stretches and terrible stretches, and you just wish they weren’t almost all happening at the same time. There’s a reason we’ve all said this is a team we could just as easily see winning 90+ as winning barely 70. Now we get to watch it play out, and sometimes that means getting stomped by a terrible, terrible Pirates team.
• With two outs in that fateful second inning, and with the Pirates up 3-1, Zach Davies had a chance to keep things from getting nuts. Bryan Reynolds was at the plate, and had just taken a perfect 88 mph sinker at the corner of the zone down and away for strike one. But then Davies threw another 88 mph sinker with the exact same shape to the exact same spot and Reynolds crushed it for a ground rule double that made the game 5-1, and that felt a lot more like that. As best I can tell from Willson Contreras’s setup, the pitch was supposed to be similar to the called strike, but further down and away, maybe out of the zone, getting Reynolds to swing thinking he’s about to take strike two on what looked like the same pitch, but actually wasn’t. Except in execution, it was. Give a big league hitter the exact same sinker – like a perfect overlay – twice in a row, and he will hit it hard.
• It was already clear by then that Davies didn’t have his best command, but he was also throwing way more non-competitive balls than you would normally see from him, so it wasn’t just the fine command that was off, it was flat out a lack of control. That means walks for a guy who doesn’t walk people, and it also means getting hammered:
This is about as scary as it gets for a command-control contact-manager. pic.twitter.com/jUZVNS41pL
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) April 11, 2021
• Throw in the fact that this Pirates team had just seen Davies last time out, and if you don’t have command but you’re throwing the same pitches? Yikes. And if you attack them with the same plan? Double yikes (Cubs.com): “They were able to make adjustments to the way I pitched in the first game. So, for me, it’s going back and seeing counts, seeing approaches, seeing the way guys take pitches off me, that’s something that I’ll study …. I tried to stay down and away, was trying to stay away from harder contact,” Davies said. “Their approach was completely the opposite of that, where they were looking for something in that zone. That’s where I typically pitch and they took advantage and they succeeded at that. That’s a credit to them. They’re a good ballclub. They’re a young ballclub that wants to study and wants to learn and get better as a team. And I didn’t respond to that.”
Davies said he didn't adjust quickly enough to Pirates looking in the zones he found success in his last start.
ZD: "Being able to recognize that quickly, and being able to make your adjustments in a game will help you succeed at that. And tonight, that didn't happen." pic.twitter.com/mrmwNyVyBB
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) April 11, 2021
• By Game Score (12), last night was tied for the worst start of Davies career. And when you consider the opponent, it probably gets the tie-breaker over an outing against the Dodgers a few years ago. Moreover, he had been on an extremely long hot streak before that outing:
Five runs off Zach Davies two innings in. That snaps his 19-start streak of allowing three earned runs or fewer. That run dated back to Aug. 31, 2019.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) April 10, 2021
• Alec Mills came out for a traditional long man appearance, and although he gave up some rockets, he kept them on the ground. His .071 BABIP isn’t going to last – and his K/BB numbers so far are quite poor – but I also think he is pitching through a very tough role, bouncing among types of outings. It could take a bit to settle into any kind of rhythm with that (not all pitchers can handle it), and in the meantime, he’s certainly gotten results.
• Jason Adam finally had the kind of 1-2-3 dominating inning (three straight strikeouts) that we have seen him flash before. The stuff is, without question, that kind of stuff. The question is whether he can harness it in much tighter spots than a blowout like last night. Almost all of his appearances last year were low-leverage (he had just one “high-leverage” inning in 2020, per FanGraphs).
• Another mostly successful multi-inning appearance for Dillon Maples, who struck out three over his two innings, allowing two walks and a solo homer. Basically, you’re just trying to get him “safe” innings like that right now so that he can keep getting his footing with the new delivery, and the Cubs can keep evaluating him without losing him on waivers. Thus, last night was a “success” in that regard.
• Offensively, the Cubs are getting production from the two guys who had the roughest 2020 seasons (Kris Bryant and Javy Báez) and just about no one else. Ian Happ has been the third best hitting regular on the team, and he’s hitting just .143/.333/.286 (87 wRC). Nobody’s having a rougher go than Joc Pederson. He drove in one of the runs last night with a single, but he’s hitting just .120/.179/.240, with a 17 wRC+.
• It’s not just the crummy contact, it’s also the ballooning strikeouts. After last night’s game, only the Baltimore Orioles (32.7%) have struck out more frequently than the Cubs (29.1%). Oh, but also? The Orioles – 71 to 70 – have a better wRC+.
• By WAR, the *entire Cubs positional group collectively* has been below replacement level this year, worth -0.1. That includes defensive value and baserunning value, where the Cubs have been positive.
• Can I leave you with a positive memory?
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