NEWSLETTER
Each year, among the most valuable trade pieces, you find the tip-top relievers. The value of an elite closer or setup man, as you go down the stretch and especially into the postseason, can be disproportionate to that of other player types. The price tags on elite relievers at midseason, then, have tended to be on the higher side. We’ve seen it with the Cubs and Aroldis Chapman, on whom the Cubs were able to heavily lean down the stretch and throughout their World Series run.
So, then, we all already know the score: if the Cubs aren’t competitive at midseason, and if Craig Kimbrel is still breathing fire like he has been since mid-August, they will probably be marketing him to buyers. Even with a $16 million club option for 2022, it’s not a lock that Kimbrel will be back with the Cubs next year, so if there’s value to be nabbed, the Cubs will be wise to seek it out. I doubt many would disagree.
But there are a couple much trickier questions to answer. For one, what if the Cubs aren’t totally out of it by midseason? How dicey do the playoff odds need to be for the Cubs to pull the trigger on a trade? What if the Cubs look meh but are in first place? What if the Cubs look great but are five games back? (I think they still sell in both of those cases, by the way, but you get the gist.)
And even trickier? What if a potential buyer comes to the Cubs way early this year and wants to jump the market in a Kimbrel trade? How early will the Cubs be prepared to make that kind of deal?
Bruce Levine doesn’t ask that question precisely, or suggest that it’s looming, but his write-up today is what got me thinking about it.
Craig Kimbrel is off to a phenomenal start to the season.
That also could soon make him the first trade target on the #Cubs whom other teams seriously pursue, writes @MLBBruceLevine. https://t.co/E2fIaxPZHt pic.twitter.com/D5NPl9KzBe
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) April 22, 2021
As we’ve discussed before, the market for buyers really doesn’t usually take optimal shape until well into July, when teams have a better sense of their chances, their weaknesses, and their other options on the trade market. So I don’t anticipate a team coming to the Cubs super early to try to land Kimbrel sooner rather than later.
But with the Cubs having already sold in the offseason (Yu Darvish), and entertained trade talks from there on other players, it’s not as if other teams don’t know the Cubs would be ready to listen whenever. So maybe some team wants to get out ahead of the market – and get more time from Kimbrel – and solicits a deal as early as May or June. How good does that offer have to be for the Cubs to forgo not only what could become an even better market in July, but also forgo the chance that Kimbrel, you know, helps the Cubs make the postseason?
From where I sit, I generally still land on the “let’s just see how the next couple months play out for the Cubs and the NL Central” side of things. I tend to think this Cubs team has some serious flaws and risks, but I also tend to think it is sufficiently talented that it could win 90 games and make the playoffs. I kinda want to see where things are tracking through June before I say it’s definitely time to sell.
HOWEVA, yes, of course, if some team came to the Cubs much sooner and was offering up a no-brainer package of prospects for Kimbrel, you do it. You do it, and then you figure out who closes your games from among the many other relief arms available – no, the Cubs don’t have another Kimbrel, but the bullpen is the one area where they do have some quality depth. If some team wants to offer up a Chapman-level package in order to get a deal done in May or June (a top 50 prospect and several other quality prospects), I mean, you just can’t say no to that. I don’t think it’ll happen, though, so it’s kinda easy for me to say this.
