NEWSLETTER
For baseball fans who feel left out this week by all the NFL Draft hoopla, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline tossed out some early mock drafts for this year’s July (yes, July now, not June) MLB Draft. To be sure, this far out – we’re barely into the amateur seasons – a mock draft cannot tell you precise picks, and in baseball, you really have a hard time nailing picks in the way you could in the NFL, where “needs” factor waaaay more heavily into the picks. But what mock drafts CAN tell you, even this early, is where the various tiers of baseball prospects are starting to sort themselves out.
And then you have the bonus fun of thinking about the guys who are still on the board around the Cubs’ pick at 21, and getting to know some of the prospects who get mocked to the Cubs, too.
First up, at Baseball America, Vanderbilt ace Jack Leiter goes number one to the Pirates (spoiler, the same is true at MLB Pipeline, since Leiter is looking absolutely unbelievable and I hate that the Pirates are going to get him), with his teammate (and preseason favorite for number one in many circles) Kumar Rocker going at four. Shades of the Gerrit Cole/Trevor Bauer UCLA draft, when the Pirates took Cole first overall, and Bauer went third to the Diamondbacks.
The draft is very heavy on prep position players up top, and maybe that volume would help contribute to the Cubs landing who they do in this one: high school outfielder James Wood, expected by many to go much higher. BA’s comment on the 6’6″ 230 pound beast of a lefty bat:
There’s been some chatter within scouting circles that Wood is sliding and his selection here by the Cubs could represent one of the bigger steals of the class. Wood has some of the biggest pure upside in the 2021 class thanks to his power potential, athleticism, bat speed and size—it wasn’t long ago that he was considered a potential top-five pick by some scouts. He performed well over the summer and showed power against top pitchers, but he’s shown more swing and miss than some scouts are comfortable with this spring. Perhaps this is a case of nit-picking or prospect fatigue, because as one upper-level scout put it, “if he didn’t swing and miss he would be going 1-1.”
I’m sure Cubs fans see “swing and miss” and get wary, but you’re going to have warts at 21 no matter who you pick, and if you could otherwise land a high school bat with great tools and near top-of-the-draft upside? Pull the trigger and don’t look back (unless there are continued issues this spring with his game). Keith Law’s recent prospect rankings (with Wood at 11, which is roughly where you see him on other lists) suggests some teams just flat out wouldn’t take him in the top 15, whereas others would be climbing all over themselves to land him. Wide range of opinions, apparently. To that end, at MLB Pipeline? Wood is ranked down at 25. (UPDATE: Actually, that was an older set of rankings from Law, who dropped Wood off his of his most recent top 50 because he’s looked so rough this spring, with questions now about whether he can hit at all. Ouch.)
Over in MLB Pipeline’s mock, the first seven players selected are all the same as BA (albeit in slightly different orders), so you’re already getting a sense of what that top tier might look like. For the Cubs at 21, it’s a prep catcher:
21) Cubs: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Ga.)
Ford has an intriguing set of all-around tools, with the ability to really hit and the skills to stick behind the plate, though he’s quick and athletic enough to move elsewhere if needed.
Ford is generally described as a quality all-around prospect with good athleticism, who could play multiple positions including catcher. At 5’10” and 200 lbs, he’s already well-built, and the bat apparently just rates out as good. I get the sense that Wood ranks higher to some because of the substantial upside, but there’s more risk there than with a well-rounded type like Ford (generally ranked in the 18-22 range).
The Cubs have a new drafting chief in Dan Kantrovitz, whose first draft with the team was last year’s shortened affair. Then, the Cubs went with the top prep shortstop in the class in Ed Howard – a great athlete with a well-rounded skillset and certainly plenty of offensive upside. That is to say, despite not having drafted a high school bat in the first round since Albert Almora in 2012, the Cubs got back on that wagon under new leadership in 2020, so I would fall back on the old thinking that it was going to be a college bat or a college arm.
The 2021 MLB Draft kicks off on July 11, the Sunday night of All-Star weekend.
