The 2021 MLB Draft is exactly two months away, and with more amateur games in the books, you’re getting a better and better sense of how the boards are shifting. Keep in mind: there was almost no, if any, game action last year for these draft prospects. So everything we’re getting now – even if it’s only a months’ worth – is so valuable. Some of the names/spots are changing enormously after the very top tier, so I’m really digging watching those movements on the latest mocks.
For example, MLB Pipeline put out a new mock a few days ago, with the Cubs taking UC Santa Barbara righty Michael McGreevy at number 21, when it was just 10 days earlier that he was there for the Rays at 28. Check out his description from one mock to the next: “This is the area of the Draft where the ‘safer’ college arms come in and tend to creep up as the Draft gets closer. McGreevy has an intriguing combination of feel for pitching and some upside.” … then a couple starts later with some more eyes to scout him, and, “No college pitcher has more helium right now than McGreevy, who endears himself to clubs with his combination of pitch data, polish and performance. He struck out 15 while permitting just two hits and no walks against Cal Poly in his last start.”
In a normal timeline, you’d probably call that kind of an extreme swing in just 10 days unreasonable. But with the data/scouting we have available? I have no doubt Pipeline is simply doing what the rest of the industry is doing – which is the best they can! It’s going to make this year’s draft, not unlike last year’s, a significant challenge in how to properly weight what information.
Over at ESPN, Kiley McDaniel today dropped his first mock of the season, with the Cubs taking Florida outfielder Jud Fabian at 21: “Fabian was in the top half of the first round to start the year but fell because of whiff problems. Due to the high bonus expectations, he is likely to go back to Florida for the 2022 draft to prove himself again. He has trended up the last few weeks though and now is seen as likely to find a home in the middle to latter part of the first round.”
Fabian is a good example of the huge swings we’re seeing, as he came into the year considered by some a top 10 prospect in the class, but within six weeks of the season was totally out of some of the first round mocks. Now he’s hitting a bit again, and he finds himself back in the first round, so to speak. His strikeout rate to open the season was egregiously high, but he’s been raking of late, and maybe getting himself right. But, hey, don’t bank on anything yet, because there are still two more months to go of swings before the draft!
Oh, more evidence of the swings? In the last Baseball America mock a couple weeks ago, the Cubs were taking high school outfielder James Wood at number 21, as his stock had started to fall from the top ten. That was a couple weeks ago. Now? He’s not in the first round of either of the latest Pipeline or ESPN mocks.
Final draft-related note for now: one of the top college pitchers in the draft, a guy who was not expected to make it out of the top ten, is now very possibly going to be there for the Cubs at 21. If they are willing to risk the rehab:
Disappointing to hear that Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund will have to undergo Tommy John surgery with a UCL tear. He seemed like a pretty solid lock to go inside the top 10 picks. Arguably the best command in the 2021 draft class. #MLBDraft
— Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) May 11, 2021
McDaniel, who’d had Hoglund at pick eight, says that he’ll likely now fall into the 15-25 range.