NEWSLETTER
I think most around the game would agree that the Chicago Cubs’ farm system is in a better place now than it was a year and a half ago, the last time we were getting prospect rankings that were based on actively-playing dudes. That is owing both to the addition of a lot more talent, and also the early results we’re FINALLY getting to see on the Cubs’ player development overhaul.
But that said, the improvements are more an aggregate situation than tied to very specific guys who’ve absolutely exploded into another tier of national prominence. Yes, there are a few guys who’ve clearly taken huge steps forward and might be on the radar to be top 100 types late this year, but for the most part, the big steps forward have been the types that move guys around a Cubs top 30 list for prospect hipsters.
That is all to say, I’m not necessarily surprised that the first in-season rankings update from Baseball America does not include any new Cubs prospects, and indeed sees a couple of the top 100 guys bumped down in the rankings to accommodate the moves up from other prospects at a national level. Brailyn Marquez remains the top Cubs prospect at number 68, Brennen Davis is at 70, and Cristian Hernandez is at 91.
You can almost certainly attribute the drops in ranking for Marquez and Davis to the fact that they haven’t played much (or at all, in Marquez’s case) this year. Other guys have, and thus have shown some things. There will be time for Marquez and Davis. Marquez (delayed by COVID) figures to be at Double-A soon, and Davis (hit by pitch in Spring Training) just arrived at Double-A.
Also: Adbert Alzolay almost certainly would’ve been ranked, but he has since graduated as a prospect. Miguel Amaya has been just outside the top 100 for BA for a little while, and although he’s posted a 120 wRC+ in his first go at Double-A, I suspect scouts and rankings services really want to see him driving the ball with authority more before they project that he’ll hit in the big leagues. The plate discipline is fantastic, but he’s not yet hitting for any power despite checking the boxes you’d expect for the power to come eventually.
More than those specific circumstances, though, even BA acknowledges that we’re still working on extremely limited data and scouting relative to how long we’ve all been away. It’s just a really challenging time to accurately rank prospects.
Right now we are in the middle of that nether-world where you want to react to real improvements/setbacks but at the same time not over-react to hot streaks/slumps. No MiLB player has 150 PAs yet. No pitcher has topped 40 IP.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) June 7, 2021
But that means there are a SLEW of players who could move on or off of the Top 100 in our midseason (July) update. We're getting there (and we already did a decent bit of shuffles), but getting more games, more data, more looks and more convos with scouts/teams will help a lot.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) June 7, 2021
So, then, it’s a good list to check out and you will appreciate learning more about emerging prospects throughout baseball. But you have to take the rankings with a big grain of salt. It’s gonna be that way for a while, unfortunately.
