NEWSLETTER
I was with Brett – I really was – when he initially said that the month of June and, specifically, that final three-game set against the Brewers probably shouldn’t change our minds about the immediate future of the franchise. But as he’s softened on that stance (What Being Down 6.0 Games on July 1 Means for the Cubs) I’m pretty firmly a step further down the road.
Losing to that team in that way means almost as much to me as being 6.0 games out at the half-way point.
What Now, Cubs?
Do I think the Cubs *could* win this division? Sure. The schedule is about to get much easier and the Cubs won’t always play without Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Nico Hoerner (among many, many others). But it just feels over. That series was so crippling, so deflating. I don’t know. Maybe I’m letting my heart steer more than my head, but I’m getting back to my early offseason vibes of letting go and moving on.
And, no, it didn’t have to be this way. Some different, more creative maneuvering over the winter could’ve pushed this off (though that would’ve taken some SERIOUS confidence in the vaccine rollout, which I don’t think anybody had at the time). But here? Today? The Cubs are 3-9 against the Brewers, their second-best reliever, Ryan Tepera, is injured, one of their top relievers, Tommy Nance, is almost certainly being impacted by the new era of sticky stuff enforcement, the rotation may actually be at a lower point than it was earlier in the season, and the injuries just keep piling up (Jose Lobaton, Patrick Wisdom, Rizzo’s back, Bryant, etc.).
Pick someone (or two) you think you can/should extend, trade what you can, and look to make a quick turn around in 2022-2023. It’s not impossible, especially if you believe in Nico Hoerner, Willson Contreras, whomever you extend, Kyle Hendricks, Adbert Alzolay, and the Cubs new pitching infrastructure (all of which I do believe in!). There are some solid prospects on the way, the upcoming free agent class is fairly loaded and the Cubs have hardly any money on the books. Just give us something new next year. Something different. I’m sick of the staleness of this team.
… But Can an Ugly Series Sweep Be a Referendum on the Buy-Sell Decision? – https://t.co/8BnmlYCGp2 pic.twitter.com/UDWCGuAhuU
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) July 1, 2021
What Now, Cubs?
The Twins just designated Matt Shoemaker for assignment, who was the only starting pitcher with a worse fWAR (-0.7) than Jake Arrieta (-0.5). So, well, that’s where I land on The Jake Arrieta Question. If you were wondering.
Matt Shoemaker has been DFA’d. #MNTwins
— danhayesmlb (@DanHayesMLB) July 1, 2021
NYY Are Feeling Down (And We Can Help!)
You know the era is different when this doesn’t immediately provide some schadenfreude. If it were the Dodgers, I’d be in stitches, but this is kinda … ouch.
Oh, I guess I should introduce it first. Yankees Owner Hal Steinbrenner opens a statement on his team’s underperformance by taking responsibility and sharing it with his baseball ops leadership, managers, and coaches … and then basically says, just kidding it’s the players’ fault. Really wild ride, this one.
Asked Hal Steinbrenner today how he apportions the blame for the underperformance of Yankees players this season. pic.twitter.com/09rVJe7Icr
— Lindsey Adler (@lindseyadler) July 1, 2021
For what it’s worth, Hal Steinbrenner is not looking for the Yankees to become sellers at the trade deadline. In fact, it’s quite the opposite:
Hal Steinbrenner: "If I feel we're not good enough" to win a championship and baseball ops feels there's a player who could make the ultimate difference, "then I'm going to seriously consider" going over the luxury tax threshold
— Erik Boland (@eboland11) July 1, 2021
I don’t love how the Steinbrenner is treating the luxury tax threshold with such reverence (man, the owners really won that fight, eh?), but I am impressed with the overall message. Good for him. Now send us all of your best young players for our old vets. It’ll be worth it!
The Impact of Enforcing the Rules
At ESPN, Buster Olney has a really good story on how front offices are responding to the enforcement of sticky stuff rules, from the draft, to internal valuations, to the trade deadline. Obviously, it’s going to change a lot. And not just for pitchers. Certain hitters that struggle with certain types of pitchers/pitches, could be in store for big breakouts.
Hitters:Â A general manager talked last week about one of the veterans on his team whose batting average has been hovering around .200. “We think he’s going to break out,” the GM said, “because his biggest problems have been against really good breaking balls.”
And guess what? The volume of really good breaking balls might be in decline over the next 3½ months. So that slugger who has been swinging-and-missing at a high rate might suddenly face more benign breaking balls and do some damage.
I mean, come on … this isn’t just the weather heating up:AS
Yesterday was baseball's highest-scoring day of the season by far.
Two lines of demarcation: June 3, when it was reported MLB would crack down, and June 21, when it enforced the rule.
April 1-June 2: .236/.312/.395
June 3-June 20: .247/.317/.417
June 21-June 30: .245/.326/.414 https://t.co/uoDyePhJi0— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 1, 2021
Brett makes his specific point in the Tweet below, but this really makes you consider whether we underestimated how well some guys could use sunscreen+rosin (if he’s telling the truth!)
If Richards was really only using rosin+sunscreen, then holy crap. Because his curveball spin rate dropped about 700(!) RPMs after the enforcement. Slider & 4-seamer dropped about 300. We knew that different guys could use it differently, but … I'm kinda gobsmacked. https://t.co/Hd320KtQ60
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) July 1, 2021
Kyle Schwarber:
I don’t know if Kyle Schwarber, specifically, is one of the guys who’s offense is improving *solely* because of the new enforcement, but it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me given the timing. But also … we know how talented he is. Hell, we’ve seen him have absurdly hot stretches before (certainly not to this extent, but it *has* been very good before). Like, a 190 wRC+ in June is great, but it’s not insane. And even if you want to start at the beginning of the homer binge (which cuts out his ice cold start to the month: .148/.273/.148; 29 wRC+) he’s got just a a 254 wRC+. Crazy high, no doubt, but unheard of for 83 plate appearances? Nah. Not at all, really. Patrick Wisdom had a 244 wRC+ from May 27-June 14th.
This isn’t meant to be a dig at Schwarber, it’s supposed to illustrate my belief that he probably always had this in him, regardless of sticky stuff enforcement.
And to that end, our friend, Sara Sanchez (now writing for FanGraphs!), discussed Schwarber leveling up his power earlier today. And, unsurprisingly, there’s a lot more to it than sticky stuff. He deserves credit, too.
My latest for @fangraphs takes a look at Kyle Schwarber's historic June power surgehttps://t.co/MPvW70SVui
— Sara Sanchez (@BCB_Sara) July 1, 2021
Odds and Ends:
•  FanGraphs asks: What’s up with Nolan Arenado’s Defense?
What’s Up With Nolan Arenado’s Defense? https://t.co/TtDhibaODi
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) June 25, 2021
•  Nothing like making history, am I right?
A Strange But True note from @EliasSports
Record of teams scoring 7+ runs in the 1st inning:
1900-Tuesday: 608-25
Wednesday: 0-2Baseball!
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 1, 2021
•  Congrats.
https://twitter.com/NCAACWS/status/1410418061950205953
