NEWSLETTER
It’s a Two Lukewarm Stoves kind of day, my friends. Maybe even three by tonight! Here’s the first one from earlier, and now away with the second …
Craig Kimbrel’s Suitors
Boy, things are starting to get really specific, eh? First it was Anthony Rizzo and the Red Sox, then it was Kris Bryant and the Rays, and, most recently, it was Ryan Tepera and the White Sox. But for however likely (or not) each of those players is to be traded, Craig Kimbrel is even more certain to be moved. Fortunately for the Cubs, Kimbrel is by far the best available closer, which means they hold all the cards.
And it sounds like they’re making good use of that position:
Phillies were having trouble getting traction on Craig Kimbrel at last check. Richard Rodriguez is a possibility for Philly. Young catcher Rafael Marchan interests the Pirates as @JSalisburyNBCS reported
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 27, 2021
If the Phillies are having trouble getting traction on Craig Kimbrel, that’s because the Cubs are keeping the asking price high. That is a good thing. If you’re going to trade a closer as dominant as 2021 Kimbrel, who comes with an additional year of team control at a market rate (for just one year), you have to get yourself a worthy return. Everyone will want a piece of him and he will probably net the Cubs’ biggest deadline return.
Jesse Rogers is here to pick up the excitement. In an interview this morning on ESPN 1000, Rogers reiterated his belief that a Kimbrel trade will not go down to the wire on Friday. He thinks one of the interested teams will step up before then to secure a game-changing postseason closer. As of today, Rogers believes the Dodgers are the leader of the pack thanks to their backend issues (Kenley Jansen has blown 3 of his last 4 saves) and strong farm system. But he adds that the Red Sox and Astros could also become involved.
Ken Rosenthal reiterated the Padres interest in Kimbrel this morning, and while I do believe they’d genuinely love to get him … so would every contender. And so I do wonder if we’re about to start separating the legitimate interest from those who are beginning to understand they won’t give up what it takes (like the Phillies).
Cubs Core Players
On ESPN 1000, Jesse Rogers also commented on three of the Cubs “core” players, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javy Báez.
Unlike what he expects will be a quick turnaround for Kimbrel, Rogers expects any deal for these three players to be more of a waiting game. Interestingly, and uniquely, he said that he is “not completely sold” that Kris Bryant is gone, even if he is clearly the most likely of the three to be moved. To be quite clear, he still thinks Bryant will “probably” be traded, but it was the first wait-a-minute moment on Bryant in a long time. I just thought you should hear that.
Rogers seemed to be aware of the new Bryant-Rays rumors from earlier this morning, but suggested that the Mets continue to lead his market. He did concede, however, that because of Bryant’s versatility, almost any team looking to add a position player must be considered.
As for Anthony Rizzo, Rogers suggested that it’s pretty much Red Sox or bust. And as for that magical shortstop, Rogers “Absolutely thinks Báez is staying.” Perhaps that’s because of the injury, but it also tracks with what we suspect may be the Cubs order of operations on a possible extension/re-signing after the season.
Tangential aside: Jesse Rogers lists the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Rays, White Sox, and Padres as teams currently scouting the Cubs. It was unclear which player was attached to which team, but well, there ya go.
No Traction on Joey Gallo
Are we absolutely convinced that the Rangers are serious about trading Joey Gallo? I think they probably should be, and I think interested teams should give up a nice haul to get him and his 1.5 years of team control, but it certainly feels like it’s been a one-step forward, two-steps back rumor all month.
There’s currently no traction in Joey Gallo contract talks. So trade talks continue. Blue Jays, Yankees and perhaps Red Sox are among possibilities. Hard to see Padres squeezing him in at this point but they are a hard team to predict.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 27, 2021
In any case, I bring it up because his market has often overlapped with Bryant’s, despite an imperfect match on handedness, expected positions, and years of control.
Eric Hosmer Details
The potential Eric Hosmer + prospect salary dump is starting to get some legs.
Here’s a local San Diego reporter getting even more specific on the deal that would allow a team to essentially buy Padres prospects by way of absorbing Eric Hosmer’s contract.
It looks like if Eric Hosmer goes, so does one of the Padres’ top four prospects.
That’s what is being discussed.— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) July 27, 2021
Note: Acee followed this tweet up with a version of “Don’t count on it, but also nothing is off the table with A.J. Preller.”
Hosmer, 31, has $59M due after this season, which is a whole lot of cash to take on for a poor defensive first baseman who’s been around a league average hitter for his career (yeah, there have been some individually nice seasons, including the one that got him the big contract from San Diego in the first place, but make no mistakes: It’s a salary dump and a big one at that.
And whoever takes on his deal wouldn’t just be doing the Padres a long-term favor. Trading Hosmer now would provide some immediate breathing room under the luxury tax threshold to help them add even more at the deadline to make their run this season.
Long-story short, the Padres will have to make it worth a team’s while, and according to Acee, they just might! (Might even have to eat some salary to make it happen.)
According to FanGraphs updated prospect rankings, all of the Padres top-four prospects are top-100 types. In fact, that’s probably an understatement given where they each rank: CJ Abrams (No. 4), Luis Campusano (No. 20), MacKenzie Gore (No. 30), and Robert Hassell III (No. 76).
I have to imagine Abrams is off the board at this point even after his injury, but … maybe a team (cough … the Cubs) could get a struggling Gore at his low point? Gore was the top pitching prospect in MLB before the season, but a few blisters and some delivery issues have tanked his value, relatively speaking. I know that would be a risk, but it’s one that costs the Cubs only money. How could you not want to get your hands on a pitcher that young and talented, even if he has had some problems? I say it’s worth a shot. Think of it like signing him to a seven-ish year, $50-ish million deal!
For what it’s worth, the Cubs were at times connected to Robert Hassell in the draft last season, before he was selected with the 8th overall pick in the draft.
Odds and Ends
• Just a note to follow up on those earlier Max Scherzer rumors:
Teams pursuing Scherzer believe Nats want to act within next 48 hours to create time to work through his no-trade. Chances of Scherzer making his start Thursday seem remote. Scratched from last start due to right triceps discomfit. Teams might ask: How do we know he is healthy?
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2021
• Mets still seeking a starting pitcher:
Tyler Anderson a Mets target, as SNY has reported. Proobably too late to get him to start tonight in NY, which Mets need. Very strong Alderson/Cherington relationship btw. Alderson wanted BC hired as his replacement in 2018.
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) July 27, 2021
• The Braves haven’t given up yet.
The Braves are 49-51 and have been hammered by personnel losses this season. But they continue to indicate to other teams they will look for roster upgrades before Friday's trade deadline.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 27, 2021
• A little rumor-y conversation on the Cubs, including some insight into what the Cubs were seeking from the Nationals for Kris Bryant over the offseason (they were shooting high).
A new “trade deadline” Starkville is here! Jayson and I spoke with Jim Bowden to learn about the hot news and what is like to be GM at the deadline! Check it out! @jaysonst @TheAthletic @JimBowdenGM #MLB #Cubs
⬇️
Apple: https://t.co/aBN72QLMMu
Spotify: https://t.co/y9t6Iv1lfn pic.twitter.com/e6gIKjKVQH— Doug Glanville (@dougglanville) July 27, 2021
• And here’s a little fun.
We'll see plenty of trades this week, but will any be out-of-the-box moves? Here are five crazy trade ideas that probably won't happen – but should. https://t.co/OdTo2FBK00
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) July 27, 2021
And here’s Brett sliding in during the editing process to add one more, because things are just flying.
OOF. You wonder to what extent the fear of failing to sign Rocker will impact how much prospect-hugging the Mets do this week:
.@KenDavidoff was first to report the nature of Rocker’s issue. This could become a high-stakes game of chicken for the Mets and Rocker’s camp (Boras Corp).
The most similar high-profile situation happened in 2014, when top overall pick Brady Aiken didn’t sign with the Astros.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 27, 2021
Stay tuned. The deadline is now just three days away, this hour!
