NEWSLETTER
You could make the argument that we already had a good trade comp for Ryan Tepera, looking no further than the Cubs’ own trade of Andrew Chafin. Although Chafin has had more success in the past, he hasn’t looked quite as dominant as Tepera has looked when he’s been on. And although Chafin was gonna net more than $3 million in salary and a buyout this year, Tepera is making just $800,000. So, if you wanted, you could argue there are enough parallels there to note the Chafin trade value – which I think was pretty darn good – is maybe the high end of the range for a Tepera deal?
Maybe it’s too high end, though, given how good Chafin has been this year and in the past. And healthy, too.
So maybe you need a lower-end comp to wrap your head around?
Well, you’re in luck! We just got one:
Yimi Garcia goes to the Astros for OF Bryan De La Cruz in Triple A, teams have agreed
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 28, 2021
De La Cruz, 24, is not among the Astros’ top 30 prospects – just outside that range, it looks like – but he’s a high-contact bat who is hitting .324/.362/.518 (112 wRC+) at Triple-A right now. He’s Rule 5 eligible, which makes him more moveable by the Astros right now if they didn’t expect to roster him this offseason. For a rental reliever, it’s not a bad return. It’s not a huge return.
But what Garcia’s ability and value?
Garcia, 31 next month, has pitched to a 3.47 ERA this year with a 23.2% K rate and 8.6% BB rate. He’s been closing for the Marlins, but when you dig in on the numbers, I don’t know that he’d be acquired as a closer. Indeed, the Astros have already added Kendall Graveman to Ryan Pressly, so this feels more like a setup move.
Garcia has had some solid years in the past, but like Tepera, I’m not sure his track record before 2021 gives you supreme confidence that there won’t be a fall-off. A particularly concerning note on Garcia? His spin rate definitely dropped since mid-June, and his ERA since then has been a whopping 6.10 (with a corresponding drop in strikeout rate and increase in walk rate). Garcia also makes $1.9 million this year to Tepera’s $800,000.
Tepera, by contrast, has not seen his spin rate (or results) appreciably deteriorate overall since mid-June. The 33-year-old righty has a 2.91 ERA with even better peripherals. Tepera has a 30.3% K rate, 7.3% BB rate, and like Garcia was really good in the short 2020 season.
It looks to me like Tepera should net a good bit more than Garcia, so maybe somewhere between his return and the Chafin return? Closer to Chafin, given the lack of concerns about spin rate and productivity changes? Maybe even right there with Chafin given the dramatically improved strikeout rate (whereas Chafin was doing a lot more contact management this year, which is not always valued in late-inning relievers)?
In any case, this return here – a useful Triple-A player with a chance to be a big league bench guy as soon as next year – would be the floor in a Tepera deal, I expect. And probably a floor that’s far below what the actual return is.
Tepera has been a very popular reliever on the rumor circuit, so things might be moving quickly on this front. The White Sox have popped up frequently as an interested suitor.
