NEWSLETTER
Every Blogathon, it is this post – the second day set of Bullets – that is the toughest. I’m usually scrambling madly to keep up with whatever is breaking in the morning (as the rest of the baseball world wakes up, starts texting and tweeting), all while trying to shake off the residue of the grog-inducing overnight period. And the Bullets, by their nature, take a long time. So it’s just a really tough post.
HOWEVA, this year, I’m strategizing! I’ve started drafting these Bullets at 4:14 am CT. I don’t know when they’ll publish, but I should have at least a clear hour or two to power through the grog uninterrupted by breaking shit.
• Speaking of which, it’s Trade Deadline Day. It’s here. And there is no waiver trade period in August anymore, so when it comes to guys on the 40-man, today is *it*. With how much activity we’ve already seen, I can’t say how crazy today is going to get, but certainly Cubs fans are going to be anticipating trades for Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Kris Bryant, among possible others. The Cubs must be pretty far down the road in talks – even if among multiple teams – if they are going to have confidence that they can pull of quality deals. In that group, while I expect all three to be traded, Davies is the only one I tend to expect is going to be traded no matter what, because the Cubs are going to want that rotation spot opened up even if the return is meh. I still do not expect Javy Báez, who started at shortstop yesterday despite the heel recovery, to be dealt today.
• Before I forget to mention it, what with all the other stuff: it really sucks that Nico Hoerner had to go on the IL with his oblique injury. No particulars in David Ross’s comments on the injury, as far as how long Hoerner is going to be out – but obviously the Cubs knew it was an actual strain. That means he’s probably going to miss multiple weeks, which is just such a bummer because he needs the reps against big league pitching. From Ross (Cubs.com): “Injuries stink, especially when you’re the passionate baseball player he is,” Cubs manager David Ross said. “You could see the look on his face. The look on his face – very disappointed. He worked really hard this offseason. You saw how he changed his body, the muscle he put on. How he plays the game, what his expectations for himself are. It’s a big loss for our team when he’s not out there. His energy in the dugout, he just brings a lot to the table. You just hate it for him. He’s dealt with a lot of things – a lot of adversity.”
• Keith Law offered his take on the Anthony Rizzo trade and the prospects in the deal here at The Athletic. He is complimentary of both prospects in the deal, for what they are, and here’s his overall take on the trade, stripped of the emotion we have trouble stripping away: “The Cubs get a pair of faraway prospects with upside back, which is about the best they should have expected for a declining hitter at a position few teams needed and who is headed for free agency.”
• And I guess for as correct as that take might be, the response that I have trouble shaking off:
Four hours later, mulling the Anthony Rizzo trade, and I keep coming back to this:
Absent any other context, it’s an obvious and good trade for the Cubs. Huge value in return for a rental 1B.
… but there *IS* that other context. And that’s making it very hard tonight. pic.twitter.com/Xme6BOCnzo
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) July 30, 2021
• And tied for first in ERA, of course:
If Rizzo never comes back to play for the Cubs, here is where he ended up ranking in Cubs history
Games: 19th
fWAR: 20th
OBP: 23rd
SLG: 21st
wRC+: 17th
HR: 6th
2B: 13th
RBI: 13th
BB: 14th
HBP: 1st— RushingBaseball (@RushingBaseball) July 30, 2021
• Justin Steele looked fantastic last night – Marquee carried the Iowa Cubs game, and we at least got to see the first few innings of his start before they cut in for Rizzo coverage – and it was a good night for a number of key prospects:
Five Stars of Cub Farm, 7/29.
5. Brennen Davis. Reached 4x.
4. TN pitchers: Lugo (again), Little, Roberts (again).
3. Myrtle hitters: Pagan, Nwogu, Warkentin, Verdugo.
2. Yovanny Cabrera.
1. Justin Steele. Efficient, as ordered. As SP: 15.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 19 K.
— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) July 30, 2021
Final line for Justin Steele: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 K, 0 BB
His longest start of the season. And if you are worried about him maintaining his velocity and stuff, he retired his last eight hitters.
He’s ready.
— Alex Cohen (@voiceofcohen) July 30, 2021
• It’s conceivable that Steele’s next start could come in the big league rotation, depending on what happens with trades today. He’s being stretched out for a reason, and I’m sure the Cubs want to see how he looks as a starter against big league hitters before the year is up. Pretty important information for the offseason. (Ditto re: Keegan Thompson.)
• Willson Contreras’s homer yesterday was of the absolutely titanic variety:
• Messing around overnight with various stats, I didn’t love coming across a fairly clear drop in Yu Darvish’s spin rates after mid-June, and a corresponding rough patch in performance. Remember, it doesn’t PROVE anything – and even if it did, we know that the realities of sticky stuff across baseball were made unnecessarily complicated by the league’s inaction and the culture that sprouted up (there’s a reason more than 50% of pitchers saw their spin rates drop by at least a noticeable amount).
Well that’s not something I wanted to notice. pic.twitter.com/7lVXaotk44
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) July 30, 2021
• Rizzo gear at OS:
Anthony Rizzo Forever. Thank you for everything, Captain. #44ever https://t.co/L0g1LABoOR pic.twitter.com/XYvDI2vSQ1
— OBVIOUS SHIRTS® (@obvious_shirts) July 30, 2021
