NEWSLETTER
The consensus is … there is no consensus. The situation is more or less what we projected the last time we discussed the Cubs’ farm system ranking. Thanks to the extreme volume of legit prospects in the Cubs’ system, the striking lack of upper-level impact prospects, and the loads of high-upside but very young prospects, you’re gonna see a very wide range of rankings for the Cubs’ far system.
The latest comes from MLB Pipeline, which rolled out its farm system rankings this week, and placed the Cubs 18th, up four spots from the preseason list, which was itself up four spots from the list this time last year:
Which team has the best farm system?
Here is the updated ranking of all 30 farms: https://t.co/iRkBIcMglw pic.twitter.com/iQuaNqWQLh
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 24, 2021
It’s progress, which, for as much as the Cubs sold off at the deadline (and in the Yu Darvish trade), is something you have to remember is relative. When it comes to farm rankings, the Cubs of 2021 are going up against organizations that have institutional advantages: higher draft picks in recent years, more draft picks from competitive balance rules, more IFA money to spend, and more frequent sell-offs. It’s absolutely on the Cubs to keep succeeding despite any of that, but moving up the list every six months is a good sign.
That said, I would have liked to have seen the system in the top half given the depth – so many guys who could be top 100s by this time next year – but I am also incredibly biased, with limited information on other systems, and I constantly let myself forget that just because you have a ton of guys who COULD become top 100s doesn’t mean you can bank on a chunk of them to reach that level. The Cubs still have to show that they can successfully develop more than relief pitchers.
In the Pipeline discussion of the Cubs’ system:
The Cubs system has received a major of influx of talent since the end of last season, via a slew of trade acquisitions (led by outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie and Alexander Canario, shortstop Reginald Preciado and right-hander Caleb Kilian), the international signing of shortstop Cristian Hernandez and the drafting of left-hander Jordan Wicks and shortstop James Triantos. Among the prospects who were already in house, SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game MVP Davis has blossomed into one of the game’s best, but many of Chicago’s top pitchers (Marquez and right-hander Kohl Franklin among others) have missed all or most of the season.
It’s fair to say. It sucks, but it’s fair to say: for all the influx in talent into the Cubs farm system over the past 12 months, and for all the huge steps forward from some of the fringier, lower-level prospects, the Cubs have suffered huge injuries/lost seasons to a number of their would-have-been best prospects (add Miguel Amaya and Riley Thompson to Marquez and Franklin as former top ten system guys who have missed basically all of this season).
You also have to be honest enough to note that the 2020 draft has, so far, not been one that’s going to boost these kinds of rankings: Ed Howard has struggled badly in his pro debut, Burl Carraway has had flashes of dominance but has hardly been the fast-mover anyone expected, Jordan Nwogu has broken out after a slow start but he’s a college bat at Low-A, Luke Little is still working toward a Complex Ball debut, and I believe Koen Moreno has missed the year with injury issues/ramp-up stuff. The Cubs did great to get Ben Leeper as an UDFA last year, but when your entire draft class (albeit in a shortened five rounds) is not giving you much juice the year after the draft, that’s gonna ding you. (Moreover, since it was Dan Kantrovitz’s first time running the Cubs’ draft, it’s going to get all the more scrutiny in the years ahead.)
For context, FanGraphs has the Cubs with a top 7/8 system, Keith Law has the Cubs right about middle-of-the-pack, and Baseball America has the Cubs with a bottom 7/8 system. Not sure I’ve seen a spread like that before in my days tracking the Cubs’ farm system, but neither have I seen a system quite like this.
Looking ahead, thanks to the bulk of the best prospects in the system still being on the young/inexperienced/highly-projectable side of things, it’s a farm system that could easily explode into being a top three system by this time next year … or could see a lot of the younger and riskier prospects, who have a lot of hype at the moment, fizzle out. That’s where development will obviously be key, and it will be the first big test for that development overhaul (which has, so far, looked pretty good, but it’s so hard to judge with the pandemic last year).
Ah, but that high-risk, high-upside collection of prospects? It’s also why *other* rankings may not be as rosy on the Cubs just yet ….
You have to remember: higher-level, true-impact prospects are disproportionately valuable to a farm system. The Cubs went from arguably being viewed as a system with three of those guys in March to now having only one in Brennen Davis. That’s not good, and however much depth you have in “legit prospects,” some services focus more heavily on the true impact types who’ve really established themselves at the upper levels. The Cubs don’t have that.
So it’s hard for me to get too mad at BA for being ultra-conservative on a system that is heavy on guys who COULD break out at High-A/Double-A, but have yet to actually do it.
