Well, the Cubs really needed to get swept by the Twins – for the purposes of the Reverse Standings – and they got it done. That leaves the Cubs now tied in the standings with the Twins, but holding the tiebreaker based on 2020 records.
So, that means the Cubs moved up a spot:
As you can see, the Cubs remain 3.0 games back of the Marlins for the sixth spot – thanks for nothing, Nationals, who started that series probably too far for the Cubs to catch. They’ve now got a two-game cushion on the Royals, and 4.5 on the Rockies. With just 10 games left, it would be pretty difficult for the Cubs to fall behind the Rockies at this point, though certainly not impossible.
The blistering hot Tigers have put themselves behind the Angels AND NOW ALSO the Mets. The Cubs have 5.0 games on the Angels for that 11th spot (which becomes pick 12), so you feel pretty decent about the Cubs’ chances to remain in the top ten when all is said and done.
As for further movement, here’s what we’re looking at on the schedule …
The Cubs host the Cardinals for four games this weekend, including a doubleheader. The Cardinals are trying to lock down that second Wild Card spot, which could happen for most practical purposes if they were to take three of four. Obviously that triggers your cognitive dissonance, because no one wants to see the Cubs helping the Cardinals, but we also know losing is better for the Cubs right now. I say root however you feel this weekend. No wrong answers.
The Royals are facing the Tigers this weekend before four with the Indians, and then a perfectly-timed concluding series against the Twins. That series could wind up preventing the Cubs from falling out of the top eight, or could ultimately help them lock down the seven.
Speaking of those Twins, they’ve got a tough four-gamer against a burning hot Blue Jays team this weekend, so adjust your expectations. Probably gonna need the Twins to do well thereafter against the Tigers and Royals.
The Marlins, who don’t have to do MUCH more losing to hold off the Cubs, are also facing a tough AL East opponent this weekend (Rays), before finishing with the Mets and Phillies. Get hot, Marlins. Get crazy hot.
The Nationals finish with the Reds, Rockies, and Red Sox. Even if the Cubs lost every single one of their remaining games, the Nationals would still have to win FIVE more games for the Cubs to slip past them. Realistically? It’s not going to happen. I’m pulling for the six, or at least hanging onto the seven. That’d be a pretty great outcome, all things considered. Well, as far as draft picks and draft slots go ….
