The predicate for this post isn’t much more than me being curious about who the worst hitters in baseball were this year. I just wanted to see the list, consider what happened, and, of course, see where any Cubs fell.
I set the minimum plate appearance threshold to 300, which should capture everyone who was at least a semi-regular, or was a true regular but missed some time with injury.
The list winds up an interesting mix of defensive stalwarts that you’d expect to be light with the stick, and then a whole bunch of guys who really weren’t supposed to be THIS bad:
Jackie Bradley Jr. brought the glove this year for the Brewers, but it turned out there was a reason he lingered on the market for so long (though no one would have predicted THIS level of awful). Cody Bellinger’s year was an absolute disaster, with injuries aplenty and absolutely no quality contact. I have no idea what to expect from him next year.
Victor Robles, David Fletcher, and Jarred Kelenic … oof. Also, you see old friend Victor Caratini up there. Also also, Kevin Newman and David Fletcher proving that just because you CAN put everything in play doesn’t necessarily mean you SHOULD.
And, yeah, naturally, there are a couple Cubs: Jason Heyward and David Bote. You are probably not surprised to see them, as each struggled all season when available to play. Bote was the “unluckiest” hitter on that whole list, comparing his results to the results you would expect given his contact quality (but note, even his xwOBA is still really underwhelming). I won’t rehash that whole topic, except to note that Bote has underproduced his expected numbers for the last few years, and it makes you wonder if it’s just the worst bad luck ever, or if the expected numbers are missing something unique about him. As for Heyward, he was simply bad all the way through. He simply did not hit the ball well this year, and sometimes it’s just that simple.
Each of Heyward (concussion) and Bote (COVID List) finished the season on the shelf, and each now faces an offseason of questions not only about their role with the Cubs in 2022, but their standing on the roster at all. It’s impossible to envision the Cubs entering 2022 believing, as they did for 2021, that either can be a regular starter at this point. It’s slightly more possible to envision each entering 2022 as members of a rotation or just pure bench guys. Because he is younger and has more control (with, yes, some offensive upside), I’d probably let the 40-man roster leash be a little longer on Bote. With Heyward, if there’s a true roster crunch at some point, I might be inclined to part ways. The Cubs won’t, mind you, because they will assuredly give him at least the first half of next year to see if he rebounds. I could be proven wrong in time, but I just don’t think that rebound is going to happen for Heyward. It’s only slightly more plausible for Bote, in my view.
Fun fact? Heyward and Bote are the only two position players formally under contract for next year! The Cubs, of course, have a number of other position players retainable via pre-arb or arbitration. But as for firm contracts, they are it.
In 2022, Heyward is set to make $22 million, while Bote will make $2.5 million. In 2023, the final year of his deal, Heyward will make $22 million, while Bote will make $4 million. And then Bote has another $5.5 million coming in 2024.
By the way, Heyward and Bote weren’t the worst hitters on the Cubs. Among guys who got at least 50 PAs, each of Eric Sogard (59) and the Romine brothers (Austin, 44; Andrew 35) had lower wRC+. The worst of all was Kyle Hendricks (-25), but hey, we won’t hold that against him.