Given the state of the Cubs roster (and their self-proclaimed ability to spend this offseason), I often find myself pining over some of the top positional free agents on the market. But the more I listen to Brett, Sahadev Sharma, and Patrick Mooney discuss the Cubs plans this winter on their podcast, the more I’m convinced that the needs in the rotation trump everything else. There’s not much of a point in addressing the offense (which at least does have some short-term upside if you squint in all the right places) if you don’t first make some improvements to the rotation, which is currently Kyle Hendricks and then … four question marks. Hendricks now comes with a little question mark, too.
So, go get us some starters, Cubs.
Me asking the #Cubs to sign quality free agent starting pitchers this winter. pic.twitter.com/UDPsG8O1L8
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) October 18, 2021
Elsewhere around baseball …
Shildt Drama and Cardinals Next Manager
Shortly after their early playoff exit, the St. Louis Cardinals fired their homegrown and hand-selected manager, Mike Shildt, after he led his team to the postseason three years in a row. The only explanation offered was “philosophical differences,” and Cardinals President John Mozeliak refused to expand on that, adding only: “I’m here to protect employees, I’m here to protect (Shildt). If he wants to discuss those with you, that’s his choice.”
Well, Shildt, do you care to explain?
Mike Shildt, in a public Zoom statement:
"I was taught not to speak out of school. … Clearly, there were differences that led to this parting of ways, but out of respect for the organization and people that run it, I can only express my gratitude."
— Zachary Silver (@zachsilver) October 18, 2021
I … guess not.
But it’s not all a black box. At The Athletic, Katie Woo describes some internal disagreement on the front office’s initial refusal to bolster the roster at the deadline. But the more damming explanation seems to be, well, yeah a difference in philosophy: “A source described one of the biggest differences between management and the front office came over the implementation of analytics, something Mozeliak and the front office wanted to push further, but something Shildt wasn’t eager to do.”
Seems like that would explain everything, right? Shildt may have wanted to make decisions relaying more on his traditional background while the front office wanted to get analytical with it. Or, at least, more analytical than Shildt preferred. And it’s funny to think about how that could’ve played out at the deadline. Like, what if the Cardinals front office looked at the numbers in late July and became justifiably dubious that a playoff run was likely. But Shildt was like “I know we can do it. I feel it in my gut.” And then the Cardinals went on that unpredictable 17-game winning streak, and Shildt was like See!? Numbers and data are stupid!
I kid, but it’s also kind of hilariously plausible.
In any case, Derrick Goold has more on the firing, including how surprised Shildt and some of his players (like Yadier Molina) were, as well as how they should be able to grab any manager they want because “Who wouldn’t want this opportunity?”
Goold also teases some old school vs. new school internal strife, saying “A source described a rising frustration for ‘losing tradition.'”
With all that said, I’m not sure if this is good or bad news with respect to the Cubs. Like it or not, the Cardinals have had more than their fair share of success over the years, and perhaps refusing to homogenize with the rest of the league played a significant part in that. On the other hand, I believe in the power of data and analytics and would generally prefer the Cardinals stay behind the times. What do you think?
Lucky Wainwright?
Speaking of all that stuff – well, maybe. When it comes to Adam Wainwright, I just have to throw my hands up in the air and admit that he bucks trends. I’ve been expecting him to FINALLY be washed up every season for about the last five years, and he just keeps on doing his thing, even at age 40 in 2021: 3.05 ERA, 3.8 WAR.
So how’d he do it this year? Well, in addition to his own work, he was also the benefactor of some truly absurd defense. And while I’m inclined to scream that his particular advantage was nothing more than a fluke, I’m not actually sure that’s entirely fair. Maybe Wainwright is just good at pitching to his circumstances and that’s how he’s been able to continue succeeding, even in his 16th big league season. Whatever the case, it was EXTREME this year:
Adam Wainwright talking about how Nolan Arenado "spoiled" him with great defense behind him this year
STL led MLB with +50 OAA
Behind Wainwright? They had +25 OAA.
Next-most by any team behind a specific pitcher was +9!
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 12, 2021
But next year he’ll definitely be washed up.
AFL, Atlantic League Rule Changes
MLB is experimenting with pitch clocks, robot umpires, and shift restrictions, but so far it has not gone well. At least, that’s how Keith Law paints it at The Athletic.
On Saturday night, for example, an AFL game was called after seven and a half innings over three hours, because both teams ran out of pitchers. Why? Well, Law suspects it was the 22(!) walks issued during the game, which he believes was due, in large part, to an automated strike zone that was tighter than a human umpire probably would call.
I struggle to concede that as much of a problem (if the strike zone is too narrow, we can just widen it, and if it’s exactly right, then getting the calls right isn’t really a problem we need to address). At some point, the pitchers will learn to get in the zone more often, and, yeah, it should lead to more balls in play, but that’s the entire point. In the meantime, however, I can see how it would lead to a terrible night like that. I also think the pitch clock probably played a much bigger role than Law does, though he had separate issues with that, as well.
But ultimately, none of this bothers me too much. The entire reason the league is testing this out in the AFL is to find and address problems while tweaking their possible solutions. This is all part of the process, and we don’t need to throw everything away because some minor leaguers couldn’t find the zone or some overzealous umpires wanted to ring up (or walk) prospects as soon as the pitch clock expired.
The independent Atlantic League is also testing out some rules, including moving the mound back to 61 feet and 6 inches … guess how that’s going over among pitchers?
My only concern is if the league has given themselves enough time to test out these rules before codifying anything in the new CBA (that wouldn’t necessarily be required, certain rule changes can be enacted at any time with the agreement of the league and players association, but handling everything at once seems to have its benefits).
Odds and Ends
• This is a great idea:
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred says to expect more nontraditional types of venues for MLB games, like what occurred this past summer with Field of Dreams.
He mentioned "going to locales where they don't ordinarily play Major League Baseball."#SBJWCOS
— Mark J. Burns (@markjburns88) October 12, 2021
• In fact, I wish the league would just keep doing new ideas every year, instead of trying to recapture what has worked in the past (for example, I thought the Field of Dreams game was amazing … and doesn’t need to be repeated with the Cubs next year, which it is). It won’t live up to it. Just keep getting creative. That’s the fun part.
• Very easy to root for the Braves over the Dodgers, in my opinion:
You think they are having fun in Atlanta?!
(MLB x @GoogleCloud) pic.twitter.com/pVONeTCRoI
— MLB (@MLB) October 18, 2021
• Congrats, Sky!
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1450140037522333700?s=20