NEWSLETTER
Michael’s recent post about how much the Cubs saved at the trade deadline – and how that surprisingly large chunk of money could/should roll over into the baseball operations budget – got me thinking about another financial and budgetary consideration going into next year. Just another way of thinking about what the Cubs should have available to spend this offseason.
And it’s what the headline asks. I was curious, very simply, how much “room” the Cubs would have in 2022 payroll if they simply spent up to the level of the payroll in 2021. The reason I was curious was not because I expect the Cubs to do precisely that, but instead because last year’s Opening Day payroll is arguably the floor for what the Cubs could reasonably be expected to spend in 2022, particularly when you consider that revenues should be much better in 2022 than in 2021.
Again, I’m not saying this is how much the Cubs will add, because a lot is going to depend on the availability of certain targets, the length of deals, trades for controlled players, and on and on. I was just curious how much they COULD add in 2022 payroll if the relatively modest 2021 payroll was the target. Because my suspicion was … it’s a lot!
First up, the 2021 Opening Day payroll.* Given the spartan offseason commitments and the Yu Darvish trade, the Cubs’ Opening Day payroll last season was sharply down from the few years that preceded it. Depending on your preferred source, you’ll see some mild variance in the Cubs’ on-field payroll for Opening Day, but it was right around $155 million. (The Cubs hadn’t been that low since 2015, and in the years from 2016 to 2020, the Cubs averaged a payroll of around $200 million. Just for what it’s worth.)
At present, with no other additions and projected arbitration raises, the Cubs’ on-field payroll for 2022 would be about $65 million.
So, then, if the Cubs simply committed to enough new 2022 contracts to bring the current projected payroll up to the (depressed) 2021 level, the Cubs would STILL HAVE $90 million available to add in new commitments this offseason.
Sorry for shouting, but it’s just a striking reminder of how much flexibility the Cubs have right now even if payroll stays very low compared to recent years. There really is no short-term target who should be off the board from a financial perspective. Longer-term, you start to get into the question of how many 2024-2026 dollars you want to commit right now in service of a “maybe” year like 2022, but that’s a whole separate conversation we had this weekend.
Generally speaking, though, there are no players the Cubs cannot afford right now. Spread that $90 million (give or take) around thoughtfully and you can really make some hay. The Cubs might be able to not only put together a modest contender in 2022, but they could probably “buy” a prospect or two if they play their cards right.
*(For our purposes here, I’m talking about the on-field, actually-paid-out payroll, rather than the luxury tax figure, which uses AAV and includes player benefits/insurance. We’re not looking to do a luxury tax calculation today (who even knows what will happen to the luxury tax in the CBA talks). We’re just looking to ballpark how much the Cubs could commit to in new 2022 dollars.)
