NEWSLETTER
Remember how the Cubs talked about needing big changes after the 2018 season? Massive changes after the 2019 season? EVEN MORE changes after the 2020 season? And then … nothing of real substance happened?
Well, this time around, they haven’t really had to say much, because the state of the roster is such that they almost literally have to do a whole lot. The holes are everywhere, from the rotation to the infield to the outfield (and, yeah, probably even a touch in the bullpen). It’s not even a matter of maxing out the roster to be a winner in 2022 – there are enough holes that the Cubs need to do a lot just a field a dang team.
The Cubs, for their part, have done a lot of talking about being really active in free agency (and trades, presumably), but also really intelligent. You can take that as code for a lot of cost-conscious moves, or maybe just shorter-term. I tend to think the Cubs are going to be open-minded, seeking out value wherever they can find it, but erring on the side of shorter-term deals this offseason.
But what exactly is “the offseason”? What does it include? What happens when? When do we expect what? And what’s up with the Collective Bargaining Agreement?
With the World Series having concluded, the offseason is officially underway. So now seemed a wise time to lay out a roadmap of the important dates, deadlines, and timelines on the things that will be taking place in the coming months of “the offseason.”
November 3 – The day after the World Series ends, players eligible for free agency become free agents. The Cubs have just four outgoing free agents:
C Robinson Chirinos, 37
RHP Zach Davies, 28
UTL Matt Duffy, 30
C Jose Lobaton, 37
*Others could (and will) become free agents if the Cubs release or non-tender them, and I do expect some fringe guys to be let go almost immediately. Others could last until the non-tender deadline on December 2.
The Cubs could conceivably look to bring back Duffy, who wound up a perfectly solid bench guy. Chirinos, if healthy, could come back as a depth catcher on a minor league deal. I don’t see the Cubs and Davies re-upping after a year where virtually nothing worked in the marriage. I wonder if Lobaton hangs ’em up.
November 3 through November 7 – Although players are immediately free agents after the World Series concludes, they cannot sign with a new team for five days. So, while teams can start reaching out to agents, no new contracts can be inked. This five-day period, then, serves as something of an exclusive negotiating window for teams with departing free agents. Usually you don’t see too many deals struck at this time, but it does happen very occasionally. Does the impending CBA scuffle make deals in this period more or less likely? I could probably make the argument in either direction – we know many teams will not want to lock down huge, multi-year deals until they know the shape of the game for years ahead, but might some players seek out security with familiar teams? We’ve already seen some short-term extensions over the last couple months.
November 7 – Contract options decisions are due around five days after the World Series (it’s actually specified in the player’s contract, but it’s usually right around here). Depending on decisions around baseball, the free agent pool could be further increased. There is also sometimes trade activity in the days leading up to the option decision date (because, for example, Team X might have an option on Player A that they don’t want to pay, but Team Y definitely does want Player A at that option price – so the two teams consummate a trade at the last minute where Team X picks up the option, and then deals Player A to team Y).
The Cubs have no options decisions this year, but there are a number around baseball that’ll be interesting to see (including Craig Kimbrel’s option with the White Sox).
November 7 – At the end of that five-day window following the World Series, teams must make decisions on whether make a “Qualifying Offer” to free agents – in short, in order to receive draft pick compensation should a free agent sign with a new team, his former team must first offer him a one-year deal worth the average of the top 125 salaries in MLB from the previous year. The qualifying offer amount is expected to be around $18.4 million this year. If a player receives a qualifying offer, he can accept it, negotiate a different deal with his former team, or sign with another team, costing that team a pick (or picks) in the 2021 Draft, and pool space in IFA.
The Cubs will not be making any qualifying offers this year, as there are not even any close calls. League-wide, there could be a large number of QOs this year. Maybe even a historic volume. Again, how the CBA plays into things is up for debate, because it’s obviously still going to be so unsettled by the time teams have to make this decision.
Approximately November 3 through March 2021 – The “Offseason.” The “Hot Stove.” The “Lukewarm Stove.” Whatever you want to call it, this is the meaty period where a team’s roster is built for the subsequent year via free agency, trades, tender decisions, minor league decisions, etc. Historically speaking, the hottest period was always from about mid-November until mid-January, but there was always a ton of stuff that happened outside of that window, too. In recent years, though, activity has been pushed later and later, with more of the action in the January to March window than was previously typical. And this year? Well, again, the CBA thing. I’m getting there, I’m getting there.
November 8 to November 11 – The GM Meetings and Owners Meetings present an opportunity to conduct important league business (arguably more important this year than usual, given the CBA talks, the clear needs on the rules side, and the financial questions), and also an opportunity for teams and agents to start laying the very preliminary groundwork on deals.
Teams often conduct organizational meetings around this time, too, and with a lot of turnover in the Cubs’ front office and on the coaching staff, I’d expect them to do a lot of lifting during this time.
November 17 – Players must decide whether to accept the Qualifying Offer by this date (they used to have just seven days after receiving a QO, but that’s since been increased to ten days). Big-time free agency won’t really get going until after this date, and even that’s on the early side (especially this year, I suspect).
November 7 to November 18 – The various MLB awards are announced, starting with the Gold Gloves and concluding with the MVPs. Patrick Wisdom figures to get some down-the-ballot Rookie of the Year votes, but that’ll be it for the Cubs on those. And Zach Davies is the Cubs’ lone Gold Glove finalist.
November 19 – A team’s 40-man roster must be set for the purposes of the Rule 5 Draft (i.e., players already in the organization that the team would like to protect must be added by this date). The Cubs will purge some names from the 40-man roster over the coming weeks, partly to open up spots for Rule 5 purposes. From there, the Cubs will decide on a few young players to add to the 40-man so that they cannot be selected in the Rule 5 Draft (about which, more below).
December 1 – Here it is. The CBA expiration. If a new deal is not in place between the players and the owners by midnight on December 1, then … well … something happens. The owners could immediately lock the players out and freeze everything until a new deal is made. The sides could agree on a temporary extension of business activities if they are getting close to a deal. There’s some flexibility in what exactly will happen on this date, depending on the state of talks. Tentatively? Everyone you ask is expecting a lockout of at least some duration. Not necessarily long enough to impact the 2022 season, but long enough to shut down free agency and trades for a while. You can presume, then, that every date from here on out comes with a CBA-sized asterisk.
December 2 – Deadline for tendering contracts to players under team control but not signed for 2022 – i.e., players in their first three years of service time who can be “renewed,” and arbitration-eligible players (players with three or more years of service time, but fewer than six years of service time). This decision will include Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Rex Brothers, and Adam Morgan. Note that tendering a contract to these players is optional. Players shy of arbitration level service time are also sometimes non-tendered by this date.
December 6 to December 9 – The Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida … maybe. The event hasn’t officially been cancelled yet, but the pandemic makes it highly unlikely that in-person meetings will proceed as normal. There is business to conduct at the meetings, so there will be SOME version, but it’s probably not going to look like years past.
Historically, the gist: MLB executives, agents, and players (as necessary) get together for a week. The Winter Meetings are a notable source of rumors, signings, trades, etc. While not all of the big offseason moves go down at the Meetings, there’s always a ton to discuss (not only amongst ourselves, but also amongst those MLB executives, agents, and players). In short, it’s an exciting time for folks who love rumors – like a mini version of the Trade Deadline, but spread out over four days. It’s not quite a Blogathon around here, but it’s pretty close, and we do find ourselves waking up at 3am to quickly check in and make sure nothing is breaking.
December 9 – The Rule 5 Draft. Players who’ve been in an organization’s system for a while (several years) without yet reaching the 40-man roster are eligible to be selected by other teams for a small fee, placed on that team’s 26-man roster, and then kept for good if the player can stick on the 26-man roster for almost all of the subsequent season. Typically, in this draft, rebuilding clubs do some selecting, and competitive clubs do some sweating. Then again, if you’ve built up extraordinary depth in your farm system (like the Cubs), you might also do a little sweating.
You can see the full list Cubs players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft over at TCR. The Cubs should be able to protect upwards of five or six, if they so choose, but historically you see about three or four prospects rostered before the draft. It depends on talent, on which guys are likely to be selected, and on how much 40-man roster space you need for other moves. (We dig in deeper on the prospects as the rostering deadline on November 19 approaches, though Bryan took an early look here.)
Approximately January 1 to January 31, 2022 – This is about the time that the Cubs will be sending out non-roster invitations to 2021 Spring Training. The invitations go to prospects and players in the Cubs’ system who’ve not yet been placed on the 40-man roster, as well as veterans who are looking for a 2022 job, but have to “prove it.” You will roll your eyes at most of the minor league free agent non-roster invitees, but it doesn’t hurt to grab as many of the best as possible – and sometimes it pays off, as we saw last year.
January 14, 2022 – This is when teams and arbitration-eligible players will submit arbitration requests (each side picks a number – we’ll have more on those details when the dates approach), and then hearings will be set, if necessary, for early February.
January 14 to January 16, 2022 – The Cubs Convention … is not happening? We haven’t gotten official word yet that the 2022 installment will join the 2021 installment as a pandemic cancellation, but we haven’t heard anything good yet either. I am not currently making any travel plans, and that makes me very sad. It’s always a great time.
Approximately February 16, 2022 – Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and your heart climbs up into your throat once again, not to depart for (hopefully) another eight and a half months. That, of course, presumes the 2022 season is expected to begin on time. Given the CBA situation, it’s possible the start of Spring Training could get bumped back if the talks are ongoing.
