NEWSLETTER
It was an expected move given how good he’s been with the Reds, but now we know it’s definitely happening: Nick Castellanos is opting out of his deal and hitting free agency once again.
Nick Castellanos opts out. Castellanos, 29, had .309/.362/.576 slash line this year. Had $34M and 2 years to go. Now a free agent. #reds
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 4, 2021
The market for Castellanos, in a world where the Designated Hitter is arriving in the National League, is likely to be very strong. He’ll probably market himself as a guy who made significant improvements after moving on from the Tigers, and whose high-contact, high-power, line-drive-BABIP, not-a-lot-of-walks differentiates him from so many other top hitters out there (you can debate what’s best, but it does help to have a variety throughout your lineup – I think we Cubs fans have learned that).
Castellanos will play next year at age 30, is a middle-of-the-order upgrade for any lineup, and can rotate among the corner outfield spots and DH.
Yes, I would very much like the Cubs to pursue him … Qualifying Offer be damned.
That is to say, Castellanos will now receive a QO from the Reds, which he will reject, and thus he will be attached to draft pick compensation unless the CBA rules change mid-stream. For many players, it’s not going to make sense for the Cubs to give up their high second rounder (and bonus pool space, and $500K in IFA space), but that consideration is softened considerably if you’re talking about someone you want for the next three or four or more years. I tend to think that’s the range of deal Castellanos is going to be able to command, so *IF* the Cubs are in on him, the compensatory stuff is slightly less concerning. So many free agents are going to be attached to QOs this year that I suspect the Cubs are going to consider at least a handful of them where they believe there is still value to be had.
But will the Cubs actually be in on him? They might love the player, but unless his addition was coordinate with significant other additions for the 2022-23 period (without just loading up on dead money for 2024+), then even I admit it makes less sense to go hard after him. I just love the player so much, not only for his time with the Cubs, but for the type of bat he can provide, as well as his infectious competitive energy. And his alley-to-alley line drive approach is a fantastic fit for Wrigley Field.
We’ve talked a lot about Castellanos already. Some thoughts from our most recent write-up:
To be sure, you’re a little more comfortable giving up a draft pick (and IFA pool space) for a guy you’re expecting to sign to a long-term deal, but it’s definitely a non-zero factor. And for the Cubs, who have their highest relative pick in each round of the draft since 2014, it’s something to consider.
Going further with the Cubs’ involvement, they have openings all over the outfield and (theoretically) at designated hitter plus a TON of payroll space and a need for power in a lineup that does finally figure to have some contact throughout (Nick Madrigal, Nico Hoerner … Frank Schwindel?). However, their ENORMOUS needs in the rotation are expected to trump their efforts elsewhere. They also arguably still need a full-time shortstop and maybe third baseman, too. It’s a very needy roster, and a turning-30-year-old-bat-only guy might not be a primary focus. There could be clubs out there that see him as a “final piece,” and really ball out.
So while Castellanos fits positionally, financially, and perhaps especially in a marketing sense (the Cubs have some goodwill to buy back after this past deadline), it’s not so easy to see them leading the charge on Castellanos if he winds up seeing massing, long-term offers out there. Which, well, would be disappointing.
And let me phrase that another way to be clear: the Cubs should be involved on Castellanos. I think he’d be an excellent target for so many reasons, on the field and off, but whether they will seems to depend entirely on how his market shakes out. The Cubs keep telling us they intend to be opportunistic this offseason, not aggressive. So a big early push by the Cubs, a huge offer, and a disregard for the draft pick/IFA money considerations, would be at least a mild surprise.
There’s also the fact that Castellanos is one of the more outwardly competitive players on the market and he might not view the Cubs as his best chance to win in 2022. So not only could they have trouble convincing him to make Chicago his last big score, but other teams will get their chance to woo him, as well.
