If you want to know what the ABSOLUTE FLOOR is for a Carlos Correa free agent contract, the Houston Astros just supplied it.
After reports of previous extension efforts that came up well short, the Astros have made an offer to retain Correa now that he is actually on the doorstep of free agency:
MLB sources: The @astros have offered free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa a five-year contract worth $160 million, averaging $32 million a year.
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) November 6, 2021
While I don’t think Correa (or anyone any time soon) is going to match Francisco Lindor’s $341 million deal, which was the product of unique circumstances with the Mets, I do think he’s going to get a heckuva lot more than $160 million guaranteed over five years. Heck, might get literally double that.
The $32 million AAV isn’t egregious or anything, it’s just that he’s going to want many more years – and probably an opt out or two built in so that he gets to have his cake and eat it, too. Something like eight years and $32 million annually, with opt outs after years three and five. Or whatever – that way, he has the security of the full guarantee, but also has the option of walking if he thinks he can do better in a few years at age 30.
Anyway, you can consider that Astros offer the floor for Correa’s free agency going forward, because even if this is an offer the Astros are making and then taking off the table so they can allocate funds elsewhere, it’s a level that is obviously where a lot of teams would be perfectly comfortable. You’re just not going to get Correa on a deal like this, and things would have to fall apart dramatically between now and February for him to feel the pressure to accept a deal even close to this.
That is all to say, the price to play is going to be at least $32 million per year, and more than five years. I don’t expect the Cubs to be involved beyond that kind of relative bargain.