NEWSLETTER
Some Cubs prospect goodness to get into for your afternoon …
Recently named to the Fall Stars Game, Cubs outfield prospect Nelson Velazquez continues to get headlines for his dominant performance in the AFL. It might be best described by Josh Norris at Baseball America this week:
Velazquez has turned the Fall League into a combination of Christmas and Groundhog Day. Like clockwork, he gets up, takes quality at-bats, spits on tough offspeed pitches, makes loud contact and hits a ball a very long way. Then he goes home, goes to sleep, wakes up the next morning and does it all over again. This time, the victim was Peoria righthander and Pirates prospect Roansy Contreras, who was on such an upward trajectory this year that he made his big league debut.
In his first at-bat against Contreras, Velazquez worked the count full before getting a 94 mph fastball on the inner half of the plate. For most players, that might lead to a swing and miss or weak contact. Instead, Velazquez pulled his hands in, got the barrel to the ball and drove it some 400 feet down the right field line for a truly impressive combination of hittability and impact. His eight home runs are the the most in the league, and he also tops the circuit in average, RBIs, and slugging percentage. If he can catch Bryson Stott for the RBI crown, he will win both the traditional and sabermetric triple crowns.
He just keeps doing it over and over. Here’s the referenced homer:
Nelson Velazquez has just destroyed @MLBazFallLeague pitching – this 💣 off of Roansey Contreras.@Cubs @cubprospects @CubsZone @CubsFutures @BaseballAmerica #Cubs pic.twitter.com/25hPwFwiux
— Michael Caplan (@M_Caplan) November 9, 2021
Meanwhile, Trevor Hooth did a very deep dive on Velazquez over at Prospects Live:
https://twitter.com/ProspectsLive/status/1458436193956343811
What Velazquez is doing is “real” in the sense that he’s hitting the absolute crap out of the ball, and he’s got a swing (and quick hands) that work well to that end. The power is no fluke. The glove plays in a corner outfield spot, he’s using all fields more, he battles at the plate, and he takes his walks. If you wanted to start talking him up as a top ten prospect in the Cubs’ system, you would be justified in doing so, based on Hooth’s video review.
HOWEVER. The justifiable concern is the contact rate. As Hooth points out, even as Velazquez destroys the AFL, his contact rate is a frightening 65%. We don’t know the full shape of that number at present (is most of it outside the zone, and it’s a pitch-recognition problem? Or is most of it inside the zone and it’s a hole-in-the-swing problem?), but we do know that succeeding in the big leagues with a 65% contact rate is almost impossible. You have to be Javy Báez or Miguel Sano or Patrick Wisdom to make it work, and we know the stretches those guys can go through. And that’s with a 65% contact rate against BIG LEAGUE pitching. So, yes, whatever the cause, it’s something Velazquez, 22, will have to improve.
More love for Velazquez here from the big boss:
"What he's doing is really fun to watch," Jed Hoyer said of Cubs prospect Nelson Velazquez, who's been red-hot at the plate in the Arizona Fall League.https://t.co/SzbT7gMeBF
— Cubs Talk (@NBCSCubs) November 10, 2021
⇒ Meanwhile, Velazquez’s org-mate and teammate Andy Weber got a shoutout at Baseball America, too:
Quietly, Weber has had a solid AFL campaign. On Monday, he came up huge for his Mesa club during its comeback win over Scottsdale. Weber’s contributions to the win included a triple (his league best-tying fourth of the fall) and a grand slam as part of a five-run fifth inning that gave Mesa its margin of victory. The home run was his second of the year and pushed his season OPS to 1.027. Weber’s offensive outburst is somewhat surprising given that he’s hit just five home runs in 756 career at-bats during his professional career.
⇒ Ideally, that’s exactly what you’d want to see with a spike-grip curve, so that’s good:
Chatted w/ Caleb Kilian about the modifications to his curveball & changeup.
Spiking curve has led to minor velo ⬆️, pitch has gained vertical mvmt and lost some horizontal.
Changeup is more of an offseason project, hasn't thrown it much in AZ.
Full 📽️: https://t.co/P6FsAY1Qhj pic.twitter.com/xlCS6akbxh
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) November 10, 2021
⇒ In general, the spike-grip curve (knuckle curve to some) is a higher-velo, sharper-downward-breaking pitch than its traditional, sweeping counterpart (you could also think of it as more vertical and slower than a slider). The Cubs started working more aggressively on it a few years ago, seeing which pitchers could take to the pitch, which pairs particularly well with elevated four-seamers. Kilian has also reportedly been touching 96-98 mph with his four-seamer in Arizona, so it sounds like the mix is going very well. We know that the results with the pre-tacked baseball have been ridiculous.
⇒ Kilian’s AFL success is all the more impressive when you consider the offensive environment there this year – it’s gone through the roof:
AFL league OPS by year
2021 – 794
2019 – 674
2018 – 727
2017 – 737
2016 – 712
2015 – 728
2014 – 719
2013 – 720
2012 – 754
2011 – 816
2010 – 787
2009 – 804
2008 – 838
2007 – 730Interesting how 2021 is a return to 2008-2011 paradigm after down offense in league from 2013-2019.
— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) November 10, 2021
⇒ Of note, although you can use the same logic to soften the results of Velazquez and Weber, it’s worth noting that their OPS are still waaaaaaay above league average, which is more of what we’re paying attention to, not the raw numbers.
⇒ Congrats again to these award winners who got their hardware:
Honored to have received the Buck O’Neal award this past year and want to congratulate @DavidjohnHerz on an unbelievable year. #Cubtogether pic.twitter.com/xjjK3HfS6q
— Brennen Davis (@BrennenDavis__) November 11, 2021
