Breaking Down the Big Free Agent Shortstops – How Do They Stack Up?

Although we’ve had some free agent classes with a little more star power up top over the years, this winter’s crop is as talented and deep as you can reasonably expect.

And a huge part of that is the big five free agent shortstops, all hitting the market at the same time: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javy Báez, and Marcus Semien. Together, the five of them project to earn somewhere between $750M and $1 billion (depending on which projections you prefer), transforming the market along the way.

And considering the fact that the Cubs have reportedly been doing their homework on the entire group, and have already been loosely connected to Corey Seager (x2), Javy Báez, and Trevor Story, I thought you’d find this breakdown from Mike Petriello at MLB.com particularly useful and enjoyable: Breaking down the ‘Big 5’ FA shortstops.

Petriello breaks down the entire group with a ranking and discussion of age, health, defense, offense, abilities versus the elite fastball, running speed, and 2022 projections.

And while some of it is the perfect example of life imagining itself as a comedian — the ranking of age from youngest to oldest (Correa, Seager, Story, Báez, Semien) is almost the exact mirror of health from most games played over the last four seasons to least (Semien, Story, Báez, Correa, Seager*) — there really is a lot of useful insight.

*(It is important to note that Seager was slowed by Tommy John surgery (not usually a chronic issue for position players) and being hit in the hand with a pitch (totally flukey). With a couple of fresh connections between the Cubs and him, that felt worth bringing up one more time.)

Some other key points arrive when you get to defense. Carlos Correa rates out as – by far – the best defensive shortstop of the bunch looking back on 2021 Outs Above Average. Corey Seager, by contrast, is probably moving to third base long-term. In a vacuum, that would carve out a nice valley between their two guarantees, but hold that thought.

In the middle, there are a lot of tricky defensive considerations to sort out. Marcus Semien rates out fine (or a little worse) at short … and just won the Gold Glove at second. Trevor Story was a top-ten defensive shortstops from 2016-2020, but fell way off in 2021, after injuring his elbow. And Javy Báez had an unexpectedly fine 2020 and 2021 defensively after an absolutely monster defensive season in 2019. Having watched just about every Báez-at-shortstop game over the last six+ years, I wouldn’t have any concerns about him at the position, but I’d also wager he’s not the guy he was a few years ago moving forward. That feels fair.

Offensively, there’s a really good conversation in there that I don’t want to spoil too much, so check it out for yourself (or suffice it to say, Seager is the best hitter, Carlos Correa is right behind him, then there’s a gap before everyone else). But either way, the conversation becomes more interesting when you get to success against the elite fastball, which has been the Cubs’ kryptonite since about 2018.

And, well, that certainly tracks, given one former Cubs’ spot on these lists:

If we start with swing and miss from 2021 against 95+, here’s a big point in Semien’s favor. The Major League average, for context, was 23.5%.

16.2% — Semien
18.7% — Correa
25.3% — Seager
27.3% — Story
40.5% — Báez

The ranking is unchanged over the last three years, and there’s a decent amount of year-to-year consistency for Correa, Semien and Story, though Seager and especially Báez took a big step back in 2021. Again, Semien, Correa and Seager are the top three, with Story and Báez somewhat behind.

What about production against velocity over the last three years? OPS isn’t really a perfect metric for this, as it’s not park-adjusted and we do have a Rockie, but it’s easily understandable and it tells a story here.

1.016 OPS — Semien
.875 OPS — Seager
.810 OPS — Story
.711 OPS — Correa
.653 OPS — Báez

If you’re looking to combat elite fastball velocity, Báez and Correa are not necessarily the way to go. And, in fact, I do wonder if something about this particular skillset is what’s leading the Cubs’ theoretical interest in Seager. If you think the game is only going to feature more higher-velo fastballs, a 27-year-old slugger who excels against them could be worth the investment – especially if you believe the injuries are more flukey than chronic.

There’s so much more in there, including a really interesting discussion on the 2022 projections, which are probably way too unfair for Javy Báez (is he going to need to take a one-year offer this winter?) so check it out. I still think the Cubs’ interest in signing one of these players is more opportunistic than definite, but, hey … it’s good to have an idea of their skills and weaknesses before shopping, right?

Much more in Petriello’s piece here. Enjoy mulling the options.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

Latest News

Braves vs. Phillies: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Spencer Strider will take the ball for the Atlanta Braves when they take on starter Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 3:05 PM ET.If you're trying to watch this game,...

Jonas Valančiūnas Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Bucks – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The New Orleans Pelicans face the Milwaukee Bucks at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, and one of the 3-pointer props available for this matchup requires only one trifecta from Jonas Valančiūnas.Jonas Valančiūnas' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the BucksJonas Valanciunas' over/under...

Top 25 College Basketball Picks and Best Bets: March 28

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Iowa State Cyclones hit the court in one of four games on the college basketball slate on Thursday that include a ranked team.How to Bet on Top 25 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Top 25 Games for...

What Does a Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Down Look Like?

You'd think we'd be well-versed in trade-back options after months of wondering what kind of haul it would take for the Bears to move off taking quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. But trading...

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Arizona Diamondbacks begin their season as -226 favorites in a home tilt against the Colorado Rockies on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on ARID.Arizona's Zac Gallen gets the start, and he'll go against Colorado's Kyle Freeland.Diamondbacks vs. Rockies...

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Seattle Mariners begin their season as -155 favorites in a home tilt against the Boston Red Sox on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on NESN.Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle while Brayan Bello is Boston's starter for...

Guardians vs. Athletics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Cleveland Guardians start their season as road favorites (-156) in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics on Thursday at 10:07 PM ET, live on NBCS-CA from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.Cleveland's Shane Bieber and Oakland's Alex Wood have been named the...

Damian Lillard Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET, and if the Bucks' Damian Lillard drains four 3-pointers, he'll beat his over/under.Damian Lillard's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansDamian Lillard's over/under for three-pointers in this...

Brook Lopez Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this matchup requires two trifectas from Brook Lopez.Brook Lopez's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansBrook Lopez's over/under for...

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

On Thursday at 8:00 PM ET, the Milwaukee Bucks meet the New Orleans Pelicans, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's 3-pointer prop for this clash requires just one trey.Giannis Antetokounmpo's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansGiannis Antetokounmpo's over/under for three-pointers in this game:...

more cubs news