NEWSLETTER
Given the extent to which I was expecting disappointment today from the first bargaining session of the lockout, I have to say: I’m not disappointed beyond the disappointment I was already expecting! So, does that mean I’m not disappointed? Have I unlocked the secret to never being disappointed?!
Anyway, the owners came with a core economics proposal (full details not out yet), and the players didn’t dig it. That was expected.
Baseball labor update: There is no deal. There never was going to be one today. MLB made a proposal. The reaction among the players was not positive. Few on either side expected it to be. The question is how soon the MLBPA counters. Spring training starting on time is in peril.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 13, 2022
MLB raised pay for younger players (higher minimum salary and more money for Super 2s) in their proposal. Players union saw overall offer as "disappointing." No word about a counter yet. Long way to go (but fortunately there's still time)
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 13, 2022
This is exactly what was expected by anyone paying even a little bit of attention this week. That doesn’t mean it’s a good thing – you always hoped for a little more movement from the owners – but it also doesn’t necessarily mean the situation is any more or less dire than it already was. Until the luxury tax is on the table in a more serious way, I don’t see how any of the rest of this is going to move the ball much. And if I had to guess? JUST a guess. The owners probably aren’t going to consider seriously moving the luxury tax until the players agree to give up their hopes for earlier free agency and earlier arbitration. Not sure who blinks first or when.
We’ve done the math as best we can, and it’s virtually impossible to see Spring Training go on as normal if there isn’t a deal by February 1, and it is virtually impossible to see a deal by February 1.
That’s just the reality. It sucks, but it’s the baseball world now.
In that world, you just have to hope that the offer(s) made by the owners today at least provide an opportunity for the players to respond. I would expect a lot of digesting and internal discussions through the weekend, and maybe a new proposal from the players this time next week? That’s when, as I’ve said, we’re very likely to see the owners respond that this just isn’t going anywhere, and then negotiations will be cut off again for a time period. Probably into February. And that’s when plans will have to be made to adjust the Spring Training game schedule. That is to say, nothing that happened today makes me think we aren’t losing Spring Training games. At a minimum.
Stay tuned for more details on the offer and/or info on a possibly player counter.
UPDATE: Here are some of the early details trickling out, though, like Passan says, there’s likely to be a more comprehensive update/article/set of articles coming:
Plenty more coming in a story at ESPN but the broad strokes of MLB's proposal, per sources:
– Funnel additional money to all players with 2+ years service
– Award draft picks to teams that don't manipulate service of successful top prospects
– Tweaks to proposed draft lottery— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 13, 2022
That draft pick thing sounds all kinds of terrible on first glance:
Also heard MLB owners offered a potential solution to service time manipulation in their proposal:
•if a highly-ranked prospect (within top 150 on prospect lists) plays a full year and finishes top five for a major award like MVP, Cy, RoY his team would get a bonus draft pick— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 13, 2022
Also, of course:
Also heard MLB's offer to players today included 14 teams in playoffs
That's arguably players' biggest bargaining chip: owners clearly want expanded playoffs.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 13, 2022
