NEWSLETTER
I don’t actually think this will have a substantial impact on the trajectory of his free agency from the outsider perspective, but this is nevertheless pretty major news in the middle of a lockout. And there will assuredly be some impact.
Top free agent – and Chicago Cubs target – Carlos Correa is changing agents, signing up with Scott Boras:
I followed up and asked Correa why he chose to change representation during the lockout. He said he preferred not to answer any questions and referred to his statement.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 19, 2022
Scott Boras on landing Carlos Correa (@TeamCJCorrea) as a client: "We're very privileged to represent an elite talent like Carlos. We look forward to helping him achieve all of his goals in Baseball."
— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) January 19, 2022
It’s not hard to imagine a world where Correa was unhappy with how the pre-lockout period proceeded for him, with his only reported offer of significance being 10 years and $275 million from the Tigers, much less than fellow free agent shortstop Corey Seager received from the Texas Rangers. And maybe that’s all this is: Correa knows this is the biggest offseason of his career, and he got a taste of how it was going with his previous agency, and he decided it wasn’t great. Correa rightly wants to max out what he can get right now, and Boras obviously has the reputation for, and track record of, getting the most for the top free agents. Sometimes it’s not complicated. (There’s also a potential future issue with Correa’s now-former agency continuing to represent MLB players after its sister entity bought all those minor league teams, but that’s a bit unclear.)
But let me offer another theory. Well, not another theory, exactly. Just another layer to consider.
Buster Olney has reported previously about the injury concerns teams had pre-lockout on Correa, and perhaps it’s possible that he and his camp already know that the market will be wary about giving him a straight 10-year deal at a better AAV than Seager. Maybe they know it’s gonna have to be more creative than that, and Boras has a recent history of working on highly creative contract structures to get guys great deals in situations where things got thorny.
Recall the “swellopt” concept that Boras’s agency pioneered (he’s done them as recently as this offseason), and imagine an example of how it could work in a Correa deal: he gets a seven-year, $245 million deal … but he can opt out after three years … unless the Cubs tack on another three years at $35 million per year (thus making it a three-year, 10-year, $350 million deal). Play with the years and the numbers all you want, but that’s the point: creatively trying to structure a deal that balances the interests of a large guarantee, a large AAV, opt-outs, opt-ins, and all that stuff. Maybe Correa knows he has to be flexible, and wants an agent who can engage that flexibility but still get his client a monster deal.
As for the impact here on the Cubs’ pursuit, that’s where I say, as in the intro, that I don’t think it’s substantial. Jed Hoyer can work with Scott Boras. I’m not concerned there. And Correa was always going to seek the best deal he could possibly get, so, again, there’s not necessarily a big change here. It’s possible he could hold out a little longer with the confidence that Boras inspires, but it’s equally possible that Boras and his collective of agents and employees will simply put Correa in a better spot to figure out a creative deal as soon as the lockout ends. The change in agents thus could impact all possible pursuers equally.
There have been reports of “mutual interest” between Correa and the Cubs, and the Cubs wanting to get creative on an offer to Correa. It already felt to me like the Cubs weren’t going to be the team to land Correa on a strict 10-year, $350 million deal (or whatever). So maybe having a more creative mind involved will help them a little, relative to other orgs? Or at least will not affirmatively hurt the Cubs’ pursuit? I do believe the Cubs will try to get creative on this. But the Cubs actually landing Correa remains a significant long-shot, and nothing that happened here with Boras should change your thinking on that in either direction.
Please end, lockout. I’m so ready for this stuff.
