NEWSLETTER
I’m trying so hard not to be reactionary, because we know that the immediate aftermath of these trickling-out-details situations often wind up looking far different from how they look in the moment. But, my gut says: today wasn’t good enough. And although there was no formal announcement yet, you can safely assume Spring Training won’t start next week.
As you know, representatives for MLB and the MLBPA met today for the owners to unveil their latest offer on the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Given the lack of movement to this point, and the timelines ahead, it is my opinion that without substantial movement today, Opening Day is going to become highly unlikely.
The early chatter on the offer – just their second offer in 73 days(!) of the lockout – does not seem to suggest substantial movement by the owners.
Instead, what you see out there is that the owners moved their position on a lot of issues, but only a very tiny amount on each. Consider some of these offer tidbits – the luxury tax portion is particularly problematic in how little movement there was (it’s a salary cap – the owners are trying to create a salary cap that is even firmer than the soft cap that the current luxury tax already created). There is also no mention of changes to revenue sharing or arbitration, which are two of the biggest items for the union.
Here are some of the details out there:
As part of MLB’s CBT proposal, thresholds go to: $214m, $214m, $216m, $218m, $222m.
(Previously: 214, 214, 214, 216, 220)
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) February 12, 2022
Tax rates are still 50, 75, 100 for the 3 tiers of the CBT. MLB had previously proposed that if you go over 1st tier, you give up a 3rd round pick: 2nd tier, 2nd round pick; 3rd tier, 1st round
Now: no pick surrrendered for going over tier 1. Same picks given up for tier 2 and 3
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) February 12, 2022
MLB presented a 130-page proposal, raising the minimum salary to $630,000 and the CBT to $222 million in 2026. The union's last proposal was a minimum salary of $775,000 and a $245 million CBT beginning now. So yes, spring training will be delayed.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 12, 2022
-Offer included a raise in the minimum for 2+ players, from $700k to $725K. So now would be $615/650/725. OR League offered a straight minimum for first year players of $630k and old system after that.
-Proposal also included a 5 mil bump in the pre arb pool, from 10 to 15 mil.— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) February 12, 2022
Service time: League also offered ability to receive 2 draft picks instead of one if a star prospect is kept up and finishes in top 3 in awards in multiple years. So Cubs would have gotten a pick after Bryant wins ROY in 2015 then one after MVP in 2016. If up all year
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) February 12, 2022
MLB's proposal includes an increase of $23M in signing bonuses and international draft slots. Players who are drafted after submitting to a pre-draft physical must be offered at least 75% of the slot value and that no club can refuse to sign a player on a post-draft physical.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 12, 2022
Some smaller points in latest proposal: Limit option to minors to 5 in a given season.
Also, Re-instituting draft and follow. Means can draft a player then send him to Juco for a year then sign him.
But none of this matters unless the big stuff gets done
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) February 12, 2022
So you’ve got very small movement on minimum salary, pre-arbitration pool, and luxury tax. From what we can see so far, this is just not a substantial move by the owners, and it is not likely to cause the players to make a similarly substantial move in a near-term counter-proposal. This is far more likely to lead to more heels digging in, and it now very hard for me to see how a deal comes together in 10-14 days, which would be necessary to keep Opening Day on March 31.
But, I’ll take a breath. We’ll see if there are some other particulars that haven’t been reported yet that somehow make the offer seem better. The tweets out there that are checking the pulse on the player reactions are not good, as you’d expect (though I’ll preach caution there, because the players and their MLBPA reps are not just one person – they may have slightly different reactions from each other).
