In Theory Today is Big, Recent Cubs History, BABote, Joyride on the Field at Petco, and Other Cubs Bullets

The Littlest Girl uses a device to speak, and she recently discovered the word “owl,” which she must really love the way the word sounds. Because, while I’m sure owls are great and all, their awesomeness cannot be the sole explanation for why she will look up at you and smile while she absolutely spams the button for owl. “Owl. Owl. Owl. Owl. Owl. Owl.” But, hey, if the sound makes her happy, then I love to hear it, too …

•   Well, I guess it’s a big day for Major League Baseball, the lockout, and the Collective Bargaining Negotiations. It’s the first day since the lockout began 82 days ago that a significant group of representatives from each side will hunker down for a full day of in-person negotiations. In theory, anyway. Like, not one of those 15 minute meetings. The league has stated its intention to negotiate every day this week if necessary, with an eye on getting a deal done by Friday (or at least by Monday, February 28), which is the deadline MLB has set for preserving the March 31 Opening Day. So, given how far apart the sides are, each day this week is going to have to feature substantial movement (starting with the owners coming in with a huge move on the luxury tax today).

•   I have long lost any sense of optimism on any of this, so it’s hard for me to look at this week as anything more than “this is what we have to do before we can say, sorry, April is cancelled.” I’m sure I’m being OVERLY negative at this point, but can you really blame a guy after nearly three months (and, frankly, two years) of this crap? HAPPY MONDAY MORNING, FRIENDS!

•   This is an article at The Athletic about killing the shift, and while I don’t agree with large sections of it (because the discussion ignores long-term behavior changes by hitters, which is absolutely part of my thinking, at least), I do think it’s good reading overall. And a great point from Freddie Freeman on why, in the short-term, hitters can’t just suddenly start slapping the ball the other way:

•   A little bit of Cubs history, and I can’t believe it’s been a decade since I was breathlessly tracking this annoying story:

•   That said … pretty good trade for the Cubs.

•   It remains such a vexing topic, because of how consistently funky it has been, but yet another metric – a theoretically better version of expected BABIP – has David Bote as one of the most unlucky hitters in baseball in 2021, having posted a mere .235 BABIP, but you would’ve expected something closer to .300 based on his contact quality, directionality, and sprint speed. That is a huge difference. Two big caveats on that, though: (1) even with those extra 60 points of BABIP, Bote would’ve been only a near league-average hitter overall, and (2) we’ve seen this issue repeatedly with him in his career (which is now over 1000 PAs).

•   I still don’t quite know what to make of this constant results/expectations disparity for Bote, since, yes, it is of course possible that over the full scope of baseball there would occasionally be guys who are massively unlucky even in the face a large sample like 1000 PAs. But it is also possible that there is something about Bote’s contact that isn’t being captured in the data, and he really is “earning” his bad luck, so to speak. Without health and opportunity, we may never truly know the answer. In any case, you just hope Bote can get that shoulder healthy, resume playing capable infield defense, and be a league-average-ish bat off the bench. That’s what’s realistic at this point.

•   Not unlike running on to the field during a game, I suppose I can understand the very momentary allure, but there’s just no possible way it’s ultimately worth the punishment you’re going to face:

•   Of course, with running onto the field – don’t do it, by the way! – you might be able to claim that you’d been drinking, got caught up in an exciting moment in the game, and you just made a split-second decision to just go for it. This guy had to have seen an open gate or something, while driving in his car, and thought, “It’s time to make the donuts!”

•   I can understand why the Cleveland Naps wound up laying down that season, but the other three have no excuse:

•   Pretty cool moment:

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The game starts at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The matchup's point total is...

Brewers vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The New York Mets (0-0) host the Milwaukee Brewers (0-0) in an Opening Day contest at 1:40 PM ET on Friday.The Brewers will call on Freddy Peralta against the Mets and Jose Quintana.Brewers vs. Mets Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen:...

Cavaliers vs. 76ers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) are 8-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Friday, March 29, 2024. The game starts at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup's point total is set at 212.5.Our computer predictions...

Heat vs. Trail Blazers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) will attempt to end an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena as heavy, 14-point underdogs. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on...

Rockets vs. Jazz Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Utah Jazz (29-44) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Houston Rockets (37-35) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Vivint Smart Home Arena as 7.5-point underdogs. The contest airs at 9:30 PM ET on...

Bulls vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Chicago Bulls (35-38) hit the court against the Brooklyn Nets (28-45) as 5.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under set at 214.5 points.Before you place an informed wager...

Suns vs. Thunder Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The matchup begins at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The point total is set...

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves (50-22) are 6.5-point underdogs when they host the Denver Nuggets (51-22) in a battle between the top two teams in the Western at Ball Arena on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 9:00 PM ET on ALT. The...

Knicks vs. Spurs Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The New York Knicks (44-28) will try to continue a three-game win streak when they visit the San Antonio Spurs (17-56) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at AT&T Center as big, 10-point favorites. The game airs at 8:00 PM ET...

Kings vs. Mavericks Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks (43-29) will look to Luka Doncic (first in the league scoring 33.9 points per game) when they try to beat De'Aaron Fox (eighth in the NBA with 26.5 PPG) and the Sacramento Kings (42-30) on Friday, March...

more cubs news