NEWSLETTER
A byproduct of the lockout and the lack of a CBA is that it becomes harder and harder to even have enjoyable discussions about the season ahead – like, what’s a “who’s the Cubs’ DH gonna be?” discussion even supposed to look like as we get into March or April without a deal? It just rings so false. And that sucks, because I genuinely just want to talk about big league baseball at this point in the calendar. Badly.
•  The sides will meet again today in person, but I can no longer phrase anything lockout related with a “I hope … ” predicate, because I don’t even think you can realistically “hope” for any particular outcome at this point. If the owners, who started the lockout and didn’t negotiate for months and have yet to make a single reasonable offer, are claiming they are “out of ideas” at this point, then there cannot possibly be a deal by Monday. Worse, I don’t quite know where you go from there, since the cancellation of one game (and loss of expanded postseason) is going to mean some owners would rather just cancel upwards of two months of games. Even then, what changes at that point that suddenly give MLB “new ideas” to resolve the chasms between the two sides? Yesterday was the first day I started to think it was plausible – not likely, mind you, but plausible – that the entire 2022 season could be lost. I’m sorry to kick off the day with something that alarmist, but I’m truly just evaluating the situation, and – from the outside – it seems to be that bad.
•  My personal up to the moment expectations – chances for a deal by Monday: less than 1%. Chances of a deal in the subsequent day or two, MLB relenting a little and still saving the full regular season: 5%. Chances of a deal within the next couple of weeks to cost only a couple weeks of the regular season: 25%. Chances of a deal that moves Opening Day to May 1: 25%. Chances of a deal that moves Opening Day to June 1: 30%. Chances of a deal that moves Opening Day some time between June 1 and the end of the season: 10%. Chances of an entirely lost 2022 season: 5%. I am operating with very limited information, of course, but that’s just my read on the whole situation when considering the available reporting, the history, the landscape, etc. Maybe my distribution is wrong.
•  At least we’re going to have this no matter what:
My projected opening day lineup for Low-A Myrtle Beach (@Pelicanbaseball)
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)
2. James Triantos (2B)
3. Owen Caissie (DH)
4. Felix Stevens (1B)
5. Kevin Alcantara (RF)
6. Ed Howard (SS)
7. Reggie Preciado (3B)
8. Ethan Hearn (C)
9. Ismael Mena (LF)— Greg Huss (@OutOfTheVines) February 25, 2022
•  It’s a relatively minor element of the CBA negotiations – compared to the big ticket financial items – but I appreciate Jeff Passan sharing the full breakdown of the players’ proposed most recent anti-tanking measure:
There's a lot of talk about tanking and how to fix it. This, according to sources, was part of the MLBPA's proposal today — similar to what it has proposed in the past. The league's counter has been simple: the top four picks are subject to a lottery with no other adjustments. pic.twitter.com/Ikz41Wk36h
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 25, 2022
•  The Cubs, of course, would be in a category by themselves in the NL Central (since the categories include the low-revenue OR small-market teams), and this may be partly designed by the players to get some small-market owners more on board with their offers. But if this actually played out, you would frequently have years where the large-revenue Cardinals got TWO MORE first/second round draft picks IN ADDITION to their annual competitive balance pick. Come on now.
•  Six years ago today – I can’t believe it’s been six years! – something wonderful and magical and rare happened at Cubs Spring Training. Out of nowhere, Dexter Fowler returned:
•  Happy birthday, Ronnie. Would love to be able to hear him on the radio just one more time:
One of the most popular players in @Cubs history, Ron Santo, was born #OTD. The Hall of Famer, 9X AS & 5X GG 3B debuted in 1960 & played 14 yrs on the North Side of #Chicago. He was later the longtime radio voice of the team. @sabr https://t.co/TaZP7CmncK pic.twitter.com/VhmDPJkH17
— SABR BioProject (@SABRbioproject) February 25, 2022
•  Not sure how else to talk about DeMar DeRozan, because he’s amazing overall, but his efforts in the waning minutes of games this year have been unbelievable (he did it again last night):
https://twitter.com/BN_Bulls/status/1497050887310786562
