NEWSLETTER
Three months. That’s how long MLB’s lockout has lasted, and it marks the final day on MLB’s self-imposed timeline for getting a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place before it starts cancelling regular season games. Given how everything has played out, given today’s threat to cancel a month of games, and given the dwindling hours in the day, I’d say no one has much optimism.
But at last check, the sides were still going back and forth. It got sufficiently late that I wanted to at least get a post up to track any developments through the evening. And if this goes REALLY late, well, that wouldn’t be the worst sign in the world. Updates coming down below when they are available …
Commissioner Rob Manfred on way back: “We’re working at it” pic.twitter.com/vasSITXu7q
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) February 28, 2022
7:11 EST update: Two league negotiators headed back to the player’s side.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 1, 2022
My take on the number continues to be: although I like some of the proposed ideas/formats attached to the 14-teamer, I just think it’s too many teams. I can get wholly on board with 12 if you can figure out a quality format. https://t.co/pAnCnPQBEv
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 28, 2022
The scene outside the players’ parking lot as negotiations drag into the evening in Jupiter, Fla. pic.twitter.com/7m0VAY0ZmJ
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 1, 2022
UPDATE: It’s only just after 8pm Eastern, where the sides are meeting, so it’s still not THAT late for the meetings to still be going on:
Not done for the night — more meetings ahead, says source as #MLB officials leave another session with players. pic.twitter.com/iNiqWi6ekM
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) March 1, 2022
You’ll forgive me for noting that, because of the eventual legal implications about bargaining in good faith – and how poorly that has looked over these three months for MLB – it is in MLB’s best interests tonight to keep the players around and talking for as long as possible. Doesn’t mean they aren’t making progress! But, let’s be honest: they’ve met for seven days straight, hours and hours at a time, and they’ve moved virtually zero this entire week. Meeting a whole lot in a given day – even a “deadline” day – doesn’t necessarily mean a lot.
UPDATE 2 (8:15pm ET): I am sharing this because I saw it, and you’d want to see it, but I’m gonna pump the brakes right after:
There seems to be some momentum now in MLB/players talks. Nothing done, and certainly no guarantee. But there’s a bit more optimism at this hour.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022
Heyman, who admittedly does have good agent connections, is also a contributor at MLB Network. So a little caution is necessary on what his sources might be telling him, and what THEIR motivations might be. He was, for example, the only national reporter holding out hope for a deal by tonight when things fell apart on Saturday. (Hey, great win for him if a deal gets done! … but he’s been on an island, for sure.)
UPDATE 3 (8:40pm ET): This is movement, yes, but without knowing if there is ALSO significant movement on the luxury tax levels and consequences (also arbitration?), it’s pretty hard to know if this matters:
Sources: Deal not close, but not impossible. CBT thresholds, prearb pool big issues, among others. MLB has proposed two choices:
A: 14-team expanded postseason, minimum of ~$700k, ~40m into prearb pool
B: 12-team expanded postseason, ~$675k minimum, ~$20m into prearb pool
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 1, 2022
There has been movement on minimums, bonus pools and CBT by MLB today going in the direction of the players. Still isn't enough for a deal at this point. If they get close enough, though, there's a chance they could put off deadline by a day to continue talks into tomorrow. https://t.co/7O5qh7xQek
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 1, 2022
That last bit is the key from Passan, as it was always the most realistic best hope for today (albeit only small chances): enough progress that it’s worth continuing to try tomorrow.
UPDATE 4 (8:50pm ET): Well this is just cruel:
MLB spokesman Glen Caplin started walking back with Dan Halem, then stopped to walk up to the fence as if he had an announcement to make. We all collapsed around him as if the moment had come.
“Still not done,” he said.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 5 (9:10pm ET): The key here is that things are still not particularly close (which is not surprising, given that the last seven days produced almost no movement at all, such that even BIG movement today by MLB still leaves things quite far apart):
MLBPA message: lots of discussions today covering lots of areas. Possible progress on some. Still very far apart on key aspects of this deal.
Canceling games up to MLB, as is extension on their deadline. More discussions to come tonight. Unclear if meetings tomorrow.
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) March 1, 2022
There has been progress, but source cautions a long way to go on several key issues. Temper the optimism with some realism as the sides have big gaps to close.
They are continuing to meet late into the night. Delaying the owners’ deadline has been discussed, per source.
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) March 1, 2022
But the potential to continue talks tonight and tomorrow is still there. Which is modestly decent news.
UPDATE 6 (9:35pm ET): A little bit on the CBT discussions, and also some thoughts from me I kept meaning to jot down:
This is why I mention that stuff – can't fully evaluate offer based only on thresholds & taxes (though those are obvs important). If recidivism gone, if no draft pick penalties OR QO penalties, & no revenue-sharing implications? Big change from last CBA. https://t.co/Z2uSW8ulGX
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 1, 2022
I really think we’ve probably been sleeping on that “other” stuff too much. The recidivism penalties (i.e., it got worse each year you were over the tax) and the loss of revenue-sharing rebate dollars were cited as HUGE REASONS why teams were always trying to “reset” for a year under the luxury tax. If that stuff goes away, then, yes, the thresholds and the tax might still suck for the players, but a number of teams might be perfectly content to be over at least the first tier every single year. That would be a *positive* change for the players.
UPDATE 7 (10:04pm ET): Still going:
10 pm EST update: MLB and the MLBPA have been inside Roger Dean Stadium for 12 hours. There have been six negotiating sessions between the sides so far.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 1, 2022
Morgan Sword and Pat Houlihan from MLB just went over to the players’ side. Calling in some relievers
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 8 (10:25pm ET): If this is true, you would definitely be as optimistic as you’ve been, since status quo on penalties and $225 million for the first tier was what a lot of people were projecting back in DECEMBER:
Sources: Growing optimism CBT tax penalties can be negotiated back toward old, status quo levels. Unclear if draft picks will still apply to highest levels of spending. This major issue is seeming workable all of a sudden. First threshold expected to land around $225-230 million
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) March 1, 2022
But the playoff number is still an issue:
Earlier, @EvanDrellich reported MLB is offering a minimum salary of $675K for a 12-team playoff with $20 million pre-arb bonus pool. Or $700K/$40mil if 14-team playoffs accepted. Some dispute from sources whether first number is $630 or $675, but you get the basic choice here
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 9 (11:00pm ET): It’s not necessarily a sure thing that the number of playoff teams is the final major hurdle, so don’t get carried away. HOWEVER, there does seem to be a question on whether that could be what throws a wrench in things:
Hearing now that players are resistant as a group to 14 teams in the playoffs, and it’s not just 1, 2 or a few against it. Theres’s “widespread consensus” not to go to 14 postseason teams.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022
Remember, there’s a $ figure for the league associated to those two extra teams in the postseason. So, with the general consensus of the players sticking to 12, could MLB pull a concession or add something in to try and offset? Having the deal crumble on 12 or 14 would be bad
— Maury Brown (@BizballMaury) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 10 (11:43pm ET): The sides are now on meeting number 11 on the day, and these sure seem like significant tweets:
The two sides appear to have reached a compromise on a 12-team postseason.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 1, 2022
So there will be a 12-team postseason pool and the owners have agreed to have similar luxury tax penalties as the last CBA
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 11 (11:58pm ET): Someone is really feeding Bob the goods (well, or the other thing):
Strictly speaking, almost every issue is smaller than the CBT thresholds, so that could be anything. 😈 https://t.co/1s3GAkMsiD
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 12 (12:06am ET): Ope, deadline passed, season cancelled. No, they’re still talking. But slow your roll on any hopes that it’s almost done:
pic.twitter.com/xvXyv7Wi8b https://t.co/MsfMuhSUYc
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 1, 2022
Talks ongoing and progress has been made per sources. Still work to do
CBT being actively discussed which is a good sign. Players working to be sure thresholds increase over the life of the CBA (likely five years).
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 13 (12:31am ET): Still grinding:
MLB's numbers still aren't there from player standpoint but sides still described as inching closer on some core issues per source.
Hearing that MLB wants a deal tonight while players are deciding how long to continue talks, which have been ongoing for 14+ hours off and on
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 14 (12:49am ET): The owners want a deal done tonight, clearly:
Current plan is to stay in the stadium and keep talking until a deal is done. Determination to finish this exists.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 15 (1:52am ET): Yup, still going:
https://twitter.com/jareddiamond/status/1498550898611703809
UPDATE 16 (2:18am ET): Nobody wants to see the shift killed more than me, but is this a 2am conversation? I mean, other than when I’m at the bar arguing with friends about killing the shift, which is a good idea because it should be killed:
Shift restrictions have entered the discussion. MLB and players are hitting on everything, which may not be a bad sign.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022
UPDATE 17 (2:30am ET): I stayed up until 2:30am for this, eh? That’s ok – no deal, but this is certainly the best I was was realistically hoping for today (er, yesterday?):
There will be no deal on a new collective-bargaining agreement in this early hour, sources tell ESPN. Enough progress was made that MLB and the MLBPA will meet again later today in hopes of finalizing one. Deadline to miss regular-season games has been moved to 5 p.m. today.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 1, 2022
See you tomorrow. Er, today. Later this morning. I am so tired. Goodbye.
