NEWSLETTER
Just to close the loop on this particular topic: as we’ve said, while MLB and Commissioner Rob Manfred can announce the cancellation of games and then not hold those games, doing so is technically a bargaining position, rather than a definitive end.
In other words, the players will be able to take the bargaining position that any games MLB does not hold should be rescheduled, or the players should get paid for them in any case:
MLBPA chief negotiator Bruce Meyer: "It would be our position in the event of games being canceled, that as a feature of any deal for us to come back, that we would be asking for compensation or and or that those games rescheduled."
— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) March 1, 2022
A fair position, given that today didn’t have to happen. I think the longer the lockout goes on and the more games that get “cancelled,” the less likely the players are to actually see that money (reportedly $20+ million PER DAY), or see those games rescheduled, though. Remember, (it is my opinion that) a number of owners are PERFECTLY FINE with April games being cancelled precisely because it saves them player-related expenses. Those owners (I suspect) are the primary reason we are here today, and thus it wouldn’t make much sense if they would suddenly change course three months later and decide that they do want to play those games and pay the players.
In other words, this is just another fight that has been invited by the way these negotiations have played out. Truly asinine stuff.
That said, the players are doing everything in the right way, saying they are ready to keep negotiating immediately:
MLBPA head Tony Clark: "They (the league) set a deadline here. We're willing to stay here and have a conversation tomorrow. We're willing to fly back to New York. We're willing to go wherever we need to go to get back in the room and continue the dialogue that has begun."
— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) March 1, 2022
Again, since (I think) the whole point of today was so that certain owners would have cover to cancel a big chunk of games, I don’t know that the urgency is going to be there on the MLB side to immediately start negotiating again. I suspect there will be a brief lull, and then talks will resume again. But without a meaningful deadline/pain point for owners, I highly doubt we see them move significantly any time soon on – for example – the luxury tax thresholds that very much need moving. Even some of the more … MLB-open-minded members of the media agree on that point:
$220 million for the first CBT threshold is not a serious proposal from MLB's owners, in my opinion. That's an obvious no from players.
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) March 1, 2022
There were concerns from small market team owners (and 1/2 others) but the MLB luxury tax threshold offer didn't have much chance to be accepted. A rise from 210M to 220M 3 straight years in light of player pay stagnation, inflation and rising revenues wasn't going to work.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022
Moreover, since that’s been the topic getting the most attention coming out of MLB’s “best” offer – and was the topic that was thought to be a major threshold issue in these talks all along – it’s pretty obviously the one we’ll have to see considerable upward movement from the owners before anything actually gets done. I would give that multiple weeks yet. At least. Which sucks.
