NEWSLETTER
Not unlike yesterday, the negotiations between the players and the owners on a new CBA have seemingly been extremely active, but the leaks have been few and far between. Hopefully that’s good.
In the meantime, it sure feels like we’re coming to a point where I’m gonna want a place to park updates for you. Hence, this post. Here’s some of the latest, with updates to follow as they come along.
MLB has updated two elements of its international draft proposal: start date of 2024; 5% higher bonuses for each slot, starting at $5.5125M for the first overall pick. It's 20 rounds, 600-plus picks, and undrafted players can sign for up to $20K, though they're flexible on that.
— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) March 9, 2022
Along w/ int'l draft, players & owners were separated by $30 million per yr on pre-arb bonus pool at last count. MLB formally offered $40 million (flat) while players suggested they'd go to $70 million (w/ annual increases)
So: framework in place; some movement; work remains.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 9, 2022
MLB is now beginning to study the players union's formal written response to MLB's last offer
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
Things are moving slow so far today in MLB/player talks. Hope was to try to wrap things up late this afternoon but tonight may still be in play. If a deal does get done today, they would play the full 162 with the 6 games made up on off days and by extending season a few days.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (3:05pm ET): As expected, the words “big gaps” make their first appearance on the day, and the pessimism is about as high as it can get once again:
Hearing big gaps still exist following the union counteroffer. Discouraging news for those hoping for deal today. Resistance is strong to international draft. @Ken_Rosenthal mentioned multiple other differences.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 9, 2022
International draft “non-starter” for Latin players and might not be acceptable to union even with major MLB give, sources tell @TheAthletic. Union in latest proposal still wants qualifying offer eliminated, as well as higher CBT thresholds and pre-arb pool than MLB has offered.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 9, 2022
While that does make me pessimistic on a deal today, I do want to point out that this is the owner response to the players’ counter to the owner offer we were hearing about last night into this morning. In other words, unless the players were going to straight up accept that offer, wasn’t it always the case that they would counter with “gaps”? That doesn’t mean this doesn’t scuttle the deal – and boy howdy, if no deal today, things get really ugly, as we’ve discussed – but it does mean this might not be WHOLLY unexpected. The international draft issue, however, well, it seems to be a problem. I’m not quite sure why the sides can’t punt that one for a few years (in exchange for keeping the qualifying offer system in place). It, alone, shouldn’t sink the entire CBA.
UPDATE (3:11pm ET): It’s just a complete twin to last week, right down to the optimism that seemed to sprout up from one side and not the other, only to seemingly fall apart in the afternoon the next day:
Still awaiting numbers and other details of PA offer so we can judge for ourselves but initial reaction from 2 ppl on ownership side has turned very pessimistic. One expresses doubt that a call with owners will even be necessary. Stay tuned
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) March 9, 2022
The only difference is that the owner offer this time at least started to approach reasonable, and unfortunately, that means if a deal does fall apart this time, at least some of the blame from the public is going to fall on the players, unlike last week.
I have said this already a couple times today, but I’ll just keep saying it: I feel like everyone is so focused on the international draft as “the” hang-up, but from everything we can tell so far, there were always still gaps on CBT, minimum salary, and pre-arb bonus pool. I think we got hopeful because, finally, the owners reportedly had an offer that was approaching reasonable in those three areas, but that didn’t necessarily mean they were close *enough* to the players’ asks to get a deal done.
UPDATE (3:22pm ET): Heh. I mean, I actually believe this is true, though I wonder what Steve Cohen is trying to communicate by liking it:
Oh. pic.twitter.com/XzBWhowAq7
— David Lesky (@DBLesky) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (3:30pm ET): If these are the numbers from the new player counterproposal, I believe that means the players did not move on these two items. That seems odd, unless there’s more context this tweet does not offer?
The two sides also remain far apart on the pre-arbitration pool and the CBT after their last proposals.
PRE-ARB POOL:
MLB: $40 million
MLBPA: $70 million plus $5 million increases each year.
CBT:
MLB: $230M, $232M, $236M, $240M, $242M
MLBPA: $238M, $244M, $250M, $256M, $263M— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 9, 2022
(He subsequently deleted, because they were indeed not the right numbers.)
A general reminder: if a deal doesn’t happen today, MLB has indicated it will remove another week of games from the schedule (and not reschedule the ones already lost). So basically, today is a 12-ish game swing, and tees back up the backpay/service time fight for later. In other words, if no deal today, I’m quite sure those big games of chicken are teed right back up, with an opening day before June 1 seemingly very unlikely.
UPDATE (3:45pm ET): I knew that tweet looked funky. Yes, the players did move:
Source: MLBPA proposal today moved to $65 million on prearbitration pool and $232m, $235m, $240m, $245m, $250m on CBT thresholds over the deal.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
The pre-arb pool difference is still pretty big, given the increases the players propose ($5M each year), but the luxury tax numbers really aren’t that far apart at this point.
UPDATE (3:55pm ET): More on the international draft/qualifying offer issue:
Ownership source indicates league previously thought there was a trade ready to be made: International draft in exchange for direct draft pick compensation. Union is not there on the draft. 1/3
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 9, 2022
Second option: Do the entire package without the draft which means without draft pick compensation.
Third option: Take the original deal. League gets the international draft and draft pick compensation is eliminated. 3/3— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (4:07pm ET): These are just not far enough apart to scuttle a deal:
MLB moved pretty close to the Feb. 24 midpoints, players are even closer:
*Midpoint pre-arb bonus pool: $67.5 million
MLB: $40m flat
Players: $65m (+$5m each year)*Midpoint on CBT base level: $229.5m for
'22/$247.5m in '26MLB: $230 '22/$242 '26
Players: $232 '22/$250 '26— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) March 9, 2022
Either there’s more (well, we know there is because of the international draft), or we haven’t yet heard that the gaps on the minimum salary are still huge in the aggregate.
UPDATE (4:16pm ET): OK, so they basically agree on the min salary for all practical purposes. Again, the financial differences in these offers just seem absolutely absurd to scuttle the deal. (Based on what we’ve seen, caveat, caveat.)
On minimum salaries: MLBPA now starts at $710k and goes up to $780k. Players were recently starting at $725k, had dipped to $715k before this offer. MLB remains at $700k to start, finishing at $770k.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (5:05pm ET): So, does this mean that the owners refused to come back with a counter to the counter? Because that sure makes me nervous as heck:
Players meeting internally at 5 ET to determine next steps, source tells me and @ShiDavidi. That conversation will determine whether players vote formally on owners’ latest proposals.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (5:15pm ET): They can’t even agree on who said what. Reminds me of the infamous pandemic meeting between Manfred and Clark:
Per union source, MLB told PA it would counter on all issues today, but now league is saying it will do that only if union agrees to one of three options regarding int’l draft. League source disputes that account.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (5:26pm ET): The owners want the draft portion dealt with first:
MLB has asked that the union choose one of these options before they continue negotiating — or before MLB sends over the rest of the details of next proposal (CBT, minimums, etc). Said owners are waiting to hear from the union on which option (if any) players choose. https://t.co/Hf8HtV2J3h
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) March 9, 2022
I don’t understand – and I mean that in a sincere way, not a judgment – why the players wouldn’t just choose one of the three options, get the draft off the table, and then move forward? If they don’t want the draft, fine, choose that option (keeps the qualifying offer in place) and go. What am I missing? Is the qualifying offer really that critical? Because it shouldn’t be.
UPDATE (5:37pm ET): I tried to come up with a theory, because it was gnawing at me:
The best theory I could come up with (in four minutes) is that the players would prefer, instead, to trade the international draft for something else. So they don't want to take it entirely off the table just yet, but also don't want to give it for the QO.
OK. That's plausible.
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (5:45pm ET): This is what an implosion looks like to people on the outside who have no idea how or why it is happening:
MLB has given PA another deadline, sources tell @TheAthletic. If union declines to pick one of three options regarding int’l draft, league believes there is nothing else to discuss. Union position is that league said it would give full counter today.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (5:56pm ET): Here’s why there is a hold up:
2. There is the league-proposed option for the qualifying offer to remain intact, and for the international amateur system to also go unchanged. But in that scenario, the big question for players becomes: is the rest of the deal enough of a gain, without eliminating the QO?
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 9, 2022
Here’s where I have to admit a blindspot: I have been very focused on the younger players getting paid in this CBA and improvement in luxury tax levels – those being the “big” things – that I have just kinda not really seen ditching the Qualifying Offer as a “big” issue. It affects so few players. So it’s been easy for me to say “just keep it.” Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m not. It’s a blindspot.
UPDATE (6:35 CT): It’s not good news. After the union rejected the league’s three options (re: the International Draft), the league cancelled the next set of games through April 14. More coming.
MLB just announced cancellation of games until at least April 14.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 9, 2022
The MLBPA rejected the league's three offers on an international draft resolution and presented its own, a source tells ESPN.
The proposal: Remove qualifying offer this year. If parties can't agree to int'll draft by Nov. 15, QO returns and revert to previous int'l system.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 9, 2022
UPDATE (6:52 ET): Here’s an update on the latest:
MLB Just Cancelled Another Week of Games – https://t.co/JajDxkUL1q pic.twitter.com/xN67n2xSiF
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 9, 2022
