Obsessive Carlos Correa Watch: Would He Really Take a One-Year Deal? (UPDATE)

Ken Rosenthal dropped one heck of a “hypothetical” tonight, when he pondered the possibility of Carlos Correa — the top free agent on the market — signing a one-year deal in free agency this offseason. (Buster Olney pondered something similar, almost at the same time, which immediately makes you wonder where this is coming from.)

You’ll have to read it to believe it, and even Rosenthal suggests disbelief. But he does lay out some circumstances where you might think about plausibility.

According to Rosenthal, the path for Correa to beat Corey Seager’s $325 million deal with the Rangers, let alone Francisco Lindor’s $341M extension with the Mets, simply does not exist this offseason.

You can blame the lockout, you can blame the crowded shortstop market, or you can blame the big markets (Rosenthal explains why there are clear hurdles for the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers, and Cubs), but that’s just the reality of the situation. And so the thinking is that a one-year deal (at a record-breaking $45 million, no less) could help get Correa paid now *and* next winter, when he’s (1) still going to be the best free agent available, in part because he will (2) still be on the right side of 30, and (3) teams have a better sense of the new CBA and a full regular season of revenue in their pocket.

And the excuse to save face for not beating Seager/Lindor would be “We just didn’t have enough time to get through negotiations.”

To take this a step further, it certainly seems like Rosenthal is suggesting that Houston is the place to do it, which does track with the latest:

As for the Cubs … I’m sorry, but I don’t see it. A one-year, $45M deal for Carlos Correa makes much less sense for the Cubs than for so many other teams. I know we hammered home the idea of short-term, high-AAV contracts all offseason for the Cubs, but this is not the same thing. Absent a remarkably unlikely series of coordinated moves, a one year deal for Correa just does not align with a reasonable expectation for the Cubs (and would NOT be his choice destination on a one-year deal).

Like Rosenthal, I still believe a longer-term deal for Correa, attached to a large sum, is the most likely outcome. I don’t know who’s going to give it to him, but 27-year-old, free agent shortstops coming off MVP-caliber seasons don’t usually take pillow contracts, no matter how big. There’s just so much unnecessary risk.

Oh, also, they don’t have to just take a one-year deal to get the same comfort. Maybe you couldn’t get a record-breaking amount, but plenty of teams would be willing to hand Correa a deal with an opt-out after one year. In other words, if he can get a one-year, $45 million deal, he’d be smarter to take, for an example, a five-year, $150M deal that comes with an opt out after the first year (where the first year pays $40M). The alternative just doesn’t make sense. But, well, it’s out there.

I really don’t see this one. But, since both Rosenthal and Olney mentioned it at the same time – perhaps an agent really wanted to get the info out there to try to loop in some more teams? – we had to mention it.

UPDATE: Well, once source is suggesting intensifying talks with the Astros.

(The is one other factor that bears mentioning, but it feels far less important to me, so it’s going to be a footnote: Technically, Correa’s new agent Scott Boras won’t receive a typical/full commission on his next free agent deal, because negotiations began under Correa’s former representation. But if Correa signed a one-year deal, Boras could make his full bag on Correa’s contract next offseason. Again, it’s not nothing – I’ve seen it mentioned a few places – but Boras would be a pretty bad advisor if he was looking out for himself more than his client. I just don’t think that move is worth the optics.)

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Finally, a Team Wanted the Reigning NL Cy Young Winner

The rumors all wound up being true: Blake Snell would take a two-year deal in the $60 million range, the Giants were probably the favorites now, and the pressure was on to get something done. Per Jon Heyman, it two...

Blake Snell’s Reasonable Price Tag? Why Jordan Montgomery Might Wait a Little Longer?

A couple updates on the top remaining - yup, still - free agent starting pitchers, lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Although rumors picked up on Snell and the Astros late last week, no signing news dropped. It was surprising,...

Garrett Crochet Will Start on Opening Day for the White Sox, Marking an Extreme Rarity

We don't cover the White Sox around here in a particularly close way - maybe a touch more than other non-NL-Central clubs because of the intracity interest - but this was surprising and interesting enough for me to note. The...

Chicago Cubs Shortstop Prospect Jefferson Rojas Wants to Be Javy Báez

I haven’t exactly made it a secret that Jefferson Rojas is one of my favorite prospects in the Chicago Cubs’ farm system. After debuting in the DSL at 17, Rojas skipped complex ball and wound up at Low-A Myrtle Beach...

Taillon Throwing and a Roster Benefit, Amaya Catching, Friedl Wrist, Williams, Alonso, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know, if Seiya really rakes, and Cody hits again, and if Nico and Happ get on base a ton and Busch turns out to be a stud, and if Dansby is above average and Amaya breaks out and Morel...

Spring Training Miscellany: Celebrate With a Green Beer, Happ Returns, Assad Solid, Cubs Win

The Cubs won their St. Patrick's Day game over the Rangers 8-6 today, and it's time to tip back a green one in celebration ... About what you'd want to see from Javier Assad today as he continues to stretch...

Chicago Cubs Lineup: Ian Happ is Back!

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse this Chicago Cubs lineup? Don't miss out! For a limited time only, RECEIVE 10% OFF your...

The Third Cut Includes Mervis, Four Others

(Hear the song in your mind - it still fits!) The Chicago Cubs made their next set of cuts from big league camp today, sending out five players who were generally not expected to make the Opening Day roster. The...

Spring Leaders, Key Injuries, Rays Payroll, Luck of the Irish, and Other Cubs Bullets

A mighty fine St. Patrick's Day to you all. Although I've got a good bit of Irish in my blood, it's never been something I've connected to all that much. You can't really force it, but I kinda want to...

Spring Training Miscellany: Cubs Sweep the Split-Squad Day

It was a split-squad day for the Cubs today, and they won both by a total of two runs. It was 4-3 over the Angels and 8-7 over the Royals. The only teams with a better spring record than the...

Latest News

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21) are underdogs (+7) as they try to build on a three-game win streak when they host the Denver Nuggets (47-21) at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Target Center. The game airs on...

Mavericks vs. Spurs Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Southwest Division opponents square off when the Dallas Mavericks (39-29) visit the San Antonio Spurs (15-53) at AT&T Center, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. The Mavericks are 8.5-point favorites in the game, the fourth...

Pelicans vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The Brooklyn Nets (26-42) will try to break a three-game losing streak when they host the New Orleans Pelicans (41-26) on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Barclays Center as 8.5-point underdogs. The matchup airs at 7:30 PM ET on YES....

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21) are 7-point underdogs as they try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Denver Nuggets (47-21) on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Target Center. The contest airs at 9:00 PM ET on NBA....

Canucks vs. Sabres Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The Vancouver Canucks are fancied by oddsmakers to defeat the Buffalo Sabres when they match up on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET, with the Canucks at -205 on the moneyline, and the visiting Sabres at +170.Canucks vs. Sabres Favorite, Moneyline,...

OH MY: ANTHONY EDWARDS JUST HAD THE BEST DUNK OF THE YEAR

Anthony Edwards has done it again. The emerging Minnesota Timberwolves superstar jammed the most impressive poster dunk of the season against the Utah Jazz on Monday night. Pushing the pace in transition during the third quarter, Edwards passed the ball...

De’Aaron Fox Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Grizzlies – Monday, March 18, 2024

To beat his 3-point prop, De'Aaron Fox must make three from beyond the arc on Monday, when his Sacramento Kings face the Memphis Grizzlies, tipping off at 10:00 PM ET.De'Aaron Fox's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the GrizzliesDe'Aaron Fox's over/under for...

Malik Monk Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Grizzlies – Monday, March 18, 2024

Will Malik Monk make three 3-pointers when the Sacramento Kings face the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday at 10:00 PM ET? If so, he'll beat his prop for the game.Malik Monk's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the GrizzliesMalik Monk's over/under for three-pointers...

Bogdan Bogdanovic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Lakers – Monday, March 18, 2024

At 10:30 PM ET on Monday, it'll be the Atlanta Hawks against the Los Angeles Lakers, with Bogdan Bogdanovic needing three trifectas to beat his 3-pointer prop.Bogdan Bogdanovic's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the LakersBogdan Bogdanovic's over/under for three-pointers in this...

Anthony Davis Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Hawks – Monday, March 18, 2024

The Los Angeles Lakers face the Atlanta Hawks at 10:30 PM ET on Monday, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this clash requires just one make from Anthony Davis.Anthony Davis' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the HawksAnthony Davis' over/under...

more cubs news