The Final ZiPS Projected Standings DO Give the Chicago Cubs a Chance

With the offseason more or less at a full close now, and with the various rosters around baseball now (more or less) set, we can look at the final preseason standings projections and know that at least they now have all the information.

To that end, Dan Szymborski pumped out his final ZiPS projections for the National League standings this year, and I know all you want to know: do the Cubs even have a chance?

They do! A chance! A slim chance:

When combining their chances at winning the NL Central with the expanded Wild Card situation, the Chicago Cubs have a 9.3% chance at making the playoffs this year, per these final preseason ZiPS projections. Not only does that pass the eyeball test for me, but it also squares with where we realistically thought the Cubs could get themselves this offseason while keeping their primary eye on 2023 and beyond.

Note some of Szymborski’s comments about the Central, which also track: “Chicago is the team in the division that improved the most over the winter, but the Cubs also started from a lower point than all but the Pirates. Even though the retooling went well, there’s probably not enough star potential to take advantage of the Cardinals’ or Brewers’ conservatism.”

The Cubs improved the most in the division this offseason … but that is mostly the product of how far they had available to climb. So it’s not much of a credit. Instead, it’s just more color to the idea that they’ve managed to give themselves a shot, but not much more.

Interesting that the Cardinals now project a click better than the Brewers, though ZiPS has kinda always been down on the Brewers’ style of succeeding (i.e., getting way more out of their pitching than you might think is possible). Also, note that neither club projects to win even 90 games. If the Cubs do manage to get out to a surprising start, and if the Brewers and Cardinals do stumble, then it isn’t inconceivable that the Cubs could be buyers come July (and August). But even that is going to require some really surprising breakouts on offense, the bullpen pitching to its peak level, and the rotation succeeding despite the unmistakable presence of duct tape.

Like I said, it’s possible! It’s just that it feels no more than 10% possible at the moment. Only five NL teams – the Reds, Pirates, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Rockies – have lower postseason odds in these projections than the Cubs, for what that’s worth.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Washington State vs. Illinois Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Two hot teams meet when the Washington State Cougars (21-14) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (17-15) on April 1, 2024. The Cougars will put their three-game win streak on the line against the Fighting Illini, who have won three straight.On...

Villanova vs. Penn State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Villanova Wildcats (21-12) will try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Penn State Lady Lions (22-12) on April 1, 2024. The Lady Lions have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Villanova...

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers are moneyline favorites (-110) to begin their season with a road win over the New York Mets on Friday at 1:40 PM ET, live on SNY.Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee while Jose Quintana is New...

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) host the Atlanta Braves (0-0) in an Opening Day game at 3:05 PM ET on Friday.The Braves will look to Spencer Strider against the Phillies and Zack Wheeler.Braves vs. Phillies Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The game starts at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The matchup's point total is...

Brewers vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Milwaukee Brewers (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a road matchup against the New York Mets (0-0) on Friday, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET.The Brewers will give the nod to Freddy Peralta versus the Mets and Jose...

Cavaliers vs. 76ers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) are 8-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Friday, March 29, 2024. The game starts at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup's point total is set at 212.5.Our computer predictions...

Heat vs. Trail Blazers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) will attempt to end an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena as heavy, 14-point underdogs. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on...

Rockets vs. Jazz Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Utah Jazz (29-44) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Houston Rockets (37-35) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Vivint Smart Home Arena as 7.5-point underdogs. The contest airs at 9:30 PM ET on...

Bulls vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Chicago Bulls (35-38) hit the court against the Brooklyn Nets (28-45) as 5.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under set at 214.5 points.Before you place an informed wager...

more cubs news