NEWSLETTER
We will never escape the gravitation pull of Carlos Correa rumors, even 24 hours before Opening Day, after he’s signed on with an entirely different team. Deep breaths. Okay, here we go.
Earlier this afternoon, Stephen Nelson (MLB Network) jumped on 670 The Score to talk about the Chicago White Sox and the 2022 MLB season, when this mini Cubs-Correa bombshell dropped out of his pocket:
“Quick note on [Carlos Correa]. I’ve heard this from a couple people, one of them being really reliable. Correa and the Cubs, there was not just a little smoke there. There was a huge offer thrown Carlos Correa’s way in Chicago, but because of some representation issues, let’s say, with Correa and his camp, that deal never came to pass.”
And, yes, he heavily implied that Correa, who has a player option for 2023 and 2024, could eventually unite with the Cubs, perhaps as soon as this coming offseason, if the stars align.
But let’s back up a bit, because it’s possible that this isn’t quite as newsy as it appears on the surface. If we remember back before the lockout began, we can recall a very specific report connecting the Cubs to Correa on a seven year deal. Obviously, nothing materialized before the lockout and then Correa used the time off to switch agencies to Scott Boras.
So I could see a series of events wherein the Cubs made a “huge” offer in that seven year, mid-$200M range, and perhaps felt like they had some momentum towards a deal with his prior representation. But then, Correa, wanting his ten-year, record-setting deal switched agencies, the momentum was lost, and boom: you’ve got (1) the Cubs making a “huge” offer *and* (2) it not working out because of “representation” issues.
In all likelihood, that’s what this is all about, because last we heard, the Cubs did not seriously reengage Correa after the lockout. And to stop tiptoeing around my broader point here: No. I don’t think there’s any/enough bad blood between Boras and the Cubs to prevent one of his clients from taking the best deal possible. Instead, Correa and Boras probably just had a different idea (than the Cubs) of the best kind of deal in a world where he was *not* getting ten-year offers.
But either way, this does substantiate many of those pre-lockout rumors and underscore their potential future interest in a marriage after this season.
As a reminder, here’s what Correa’s deal looks like, and what he’d be opting out of after 2022:
2022 (age-27): $35.1M
2023 (age-28): $35.1M (opt-out)
2024 (age-29): $35.1M (opt-out)
Frankly, as long as he’s *healthy* this season (and isn’t a total disaster at the plate), I suspect he’ll opt-out this coming winter. But the range of contracts thereafter will depend on just how well he performs. If he’s again an all-star/MVP candidate, he’ll probably get that ten-year, $325M+ deal he’d been seeking. If he’s just healthy and good enough, I think he can still get a lengthy deal, but perhaps something between $200M-$300M (obviously still worth opting out). But again, if he’s hurt or way underperforms, he’s already got a very expensive pillow contract built into his current deal. And another one after that.
We have no idea if the Cubs will FEEL like they’re in a position to commit to the sort of money Correa will be seeking next winter, but if they really were interested this time around, and there’s still no obvious internal solution at shortstop, maybe they’ll get back to the negotiating table. Who’s up for Obsessive Correa Watch Part II?
UPDATE: Well, there you go. It’s exactly as we suspected, at least according to this one report. The Cubs offered Correa a deal for seven years and something north of $210 million total, but after switching agencies the momentum fell apart.
You can do your own math on the total cost of AAVs of $31M, $32M, $33M, etc. over seven years. But either way, as reported, that offer was a real, honest-to-goodness attempt to get him to sign. Obviously, it wasn’t enough to get something done, and it wasn’t even the greatest total commitment Correa received in an offer this winter (Tigers, $275M), but it would have been a huge win for the Cubs and a big-money deal for Correa. Maybe next year.
For better context than I could give while chasing a crawling 8-month-old: I was told the Cubs offered Correa a 7-year deal worth more than $30M/year. But in the complicated nature of Correa’s agent switch, that deal was never even presented to him. https://t.co/hNgoUHGfmr
— Stephen Nelson (@StephenNelson) April 6, 2022
