The Cubs’ Top Two Approach, What the First Half Showed, Three True Outcomes, and Other Cubs Bullets

Jul 21, 2022

Even when the Cubs are battling for the worst record in the league, I’m still very ready for them to be playing a game by today. No dice, though. One more day of All-Star break.

Well, we have the first signing of a player whom the Cubs could have taken at pick seven, but didn’t: college shortstop Brooks Lee, picked right after the Cubs by the Twins at pick eight, has signed for $5.675 million, which is above slot for the pick, and is just about slot for the Cubs’ pick at seven. In other words, if the Cubs had taken Lee, we can now conclude they would not have been able to take Jackson Ferris in round two – all the more confirmation that the Cubs sincerely did want a “package” of first-round-caliber players with their first and second picks (Cade Horton under slot, Ferris well over slot), rather than a higher-floor college position player in the first, and then a lesser prospect in the second.

(Then again, with a pool of similar size to the Cubs, the Twins took Connor Prielipp in the second round, a TJS-rehabber who would have otherwise been a first round pick, and who was rumored to be among the Cubs’ under-slot options at seven. Maybe the Cubs didn’t evaluate Prielipp all that highly, but, on paper, it’s pretty hard to argue with those first two picks for the Twins. Seems like they did well.)

I don’t think we can truly know for sure whether the Cubs were right or wrong in their approach for several years, but I suppose what we can now know is that the bonus demands were obviously a key factor in how you try to maximize your haul in this class. Nevertheless, I suspect people like me will be watching the development of guys like Lee, Kevin Parada, Cam Collier, and Zach Neto closely in the years to come.

The MLB.com take on the Cubs’ first half: “The Cubs went into last offseason with their rotation as the No. 1 priority and then went out and acquired a trio of veterans in Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley and Drew Smyly. Chicago also made one of the headline signings of the spring by reeling in Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. The best-case scenario seemed to be a club capable of being at least within range of the Wild Card bubble. Instead, injuries have decimated the rotation and roster, and the Cubs endured a brutal first half that put them on a 100-loss pace. It has clouded the ability to project how long this rebuild might last. Expect the Cubs to be sellers at the Trade Deadline (All-Star catcher Willson Contreras is atop the pile of chips) as they keep trying to construct the ‘next great Cubs team,’ as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has phrased it. And expect more development, along with growing pains, from younger players in the final two-plus months.”

I think I mostly agree with that, though I would probably be softer in my language about the injuries and their impact – or at least I would underscore that it became clear this team was not going to be competitive even if everyone had been completely healthy. No, they wouldn’t be even close to a 100-loss pace, but I think we have enough of a sense of the players this year that we can say the team is probably still under .500.

The other part I’d say is more mixed is the extent to which the injuries “clouded the ability to project how long this rebuild might last.” That is certainly true, in part, but it’s also true that some of the injury issues actually wound up providing more information about the rebuild/opportunity for young players to get exposure. For example, if the rotation was fully healthy from the jump, it’s not clear that Justin Steele or Keegan Thompson would’ve gotten nearly this much runway to operate and emerge. And without injuries in the outfield and at second base, maybe Christopher Morel never even comes up this year.

Not that the Cubs have reached a point where you feel confident they can compete in 2023. Maybe we get enough information on that front over the final two and a half months, maybe we don’t. I suspect it’s going to take an offseason of moves to even have a chance.

Speaking of offseason needs, those rumors of the Padres extending Joe Musgrove could put a big dent in the free agent market. The ZiPS projections on his next several years, and the contract he should command, are super rosy. Musgrove projects to be a 2.3 to 3.9-win pitcher for the next six seasons.

Great read at The Athletic about the drops in the three-true-outcome rates this year. If you don’t dig in, you might think, woo hoo, the ever-increasing march of three true outcomes (homers, walks, and strikeouts) has finally stopped. But it’s not exactly that. It looks like home run rates are down slightly because of the deadened ball (not necessarily a behavior change), walk rates are down slightly because they pretty much always move in lock-step with home run rates, and strikeout rates are down slightly because pitchers aren’t hitting anymore and this is the first full season with sticky stuff enforcement. The article goes WAAAAY deeper than that, because all of these things are exceedingly complex, but my main takeaway was that there’s still a whole lot to do if the goal is to get more action on the field in the form of balls in play. (You know, like the adding the pitch clock and banning the extreme shift … )

You may have to open this video up to actually see what he’s doing, but I am blown away by Adbert Alzolay’s strength and body control:

https://twitter.com/CubsZone/status/1549825589346975752

Right lat looks good to me, right? In all seriousness, the hope is that we see Alzolay make an appearance in an ACL game sometime soon-ish coming out of the break. But note that the hope is based not on anything he or the Cubs have said explicitly – just him tweeting an image that SUGGESTED he was close to a return, and then the general timeline we worked out back when he first suffered the injury in Spring Training. It would be really nice to get him up and into the big league bullpen for some multi-inning appearances before the end of the season.

Every single out:

Need some baseball on your timeline?

How about every out from Sunday's no-hitter? pic.twitter.com/08vXyYg1la
— Myrtle Beach Pelicans (@Pelicanbaseball) July 20, 2022

Nice picture of Mr. Cub:

Ernie Banks, 1969 @Cubs pic.twitter.com/D40tZH01S8
— Vintage Jerseys & Hats (@PolyesterUnis) July 20, 2022

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Roster Moves: Wisdom and Taillon Are Back, Wesneski and Mastrobuoni Are Out

Even with tonight's rainout, the Chicago Cubs are still making some roster moves. When Patrick Wisdom was removed (perfectly healthy) from the I-Cubs game in the 4th inning on Wednesday, we had an idea of what was coming next. When...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Tonight’s Cubs-Marlins Game Has Been Postponed

The weather wasn't going to cooperate for Jameson Taillon's season debut, and tonight's Cubs-Marlins tilt has been postponed. The game will instead be part of a split-doubleheader this Saturday, with the first game at 1:20pm CT and the second at...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

MLBits: Paul Skenes Could Make His MLB Debut Any Day (But Probably Won’t), Red-Hot Orioles, Houck’s Maddux, More

If you're into tracking young pitchers with star potential like I am—as I watch Jack Leiter's debut while typing this column—then you're probably itching to see Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes make his way to Pittsburgh sooner than later. While...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Back to Wrigley: Cubs vs Marlins – Series Preview

Cubs vs Marlins — Whew! The Cubs got through their first West Coast road trip of the year, and did so with a winning record (5-4) against the Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. They definitely let a couple games slip out...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Farm Report | April 18, 2024: Caissie, Alcántara Go Yard, South Bend and Myrtle Beach Smoked, More

Kevin Alcántara hit his first home run of the season for the Tennessee Smokies last night, and Owen Caissie hit his first Triple-A home run for the Iowa Cubs as Iowa and Tennessee secured victories. The same can't be said...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger Sticking With Scott Boras

Given the way the offseason played out for super agent Scott Boras's top available clients - Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery - you wouldn't be shocked to see some unhappiness behind the scenes. Did Boras overplay...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

You’ll Be Even More Impressed with Hayden Wesneski, When You Hear What it Took to Get Him to Arizona

Hayden Wesneski was the hero of yesterday's finale and series-win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, coming in to clean up Jordan Wicks' (little) mess in the 5th ... and then tossing 4 shutout innings to save an over-used bullpen and help...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Offseason Cubs Target Robert Stephenson Now Out for the Year

Hand up, I really wanted the Cubs to sign reliever Robert Stephenson this offseason. I felt like they could use one more impact arm (accurate), and I felt like Stephenson was one of the best available (about that ... )....

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Rays Closer Pete Fairbanks With a Wonderful and Brutally Honest Line About His Performance

Rays closer Pete Fairbanks has been an extremely effective reliever the last four years, posting a 2.66 ERA from 2020 through 2023, with a 34.8% K rate and worth 4.1 WAR. But things have started out much more rough for...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Pirates vs. Red Sox: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8) host Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox (10-10) at 6:40 PM ET on Friday.The article below will give you everything you need to watch Pittsburgh play Boston.When is Pirates vs. Red Sox...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Padres vs. Blue Jays: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres (11-10) host George Springer and the Toronto Blue Jays (10-9) on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.Keep scrolling to find out all the details on how to watch San Diego...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Giants vs. Diamondbacks: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Blake Snell takes the mound for the San Francisco Giants (8-11) when they host starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks (9-10) at 10:15 PM ET on Friday.The article below will provide you with everything you need to know...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Dodgers vs. Mets: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers (12-9) host Pete Alonso and the New York Mets (10-8) on Friday in a series opener, with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET.If you're planning on watching this game, keep reading for streaming...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The Minnesota Twins will be hosting the Detroit Tigers for a three-game series, with the first matchup getting underway at 8:10 PM ET on Friday, April 19.Twins vs. Tigers Series Info Tigers @ Twins Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:10...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

In the opener of a three-game series, on Friday, April 19 at 8:15 PM ET, the St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.Cardinals vs. Brewers Series Info Brewers @ Cardinals Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:15 PM ET Cardinals...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

On Friday, April 19 at 7:40 PM ET, a three-game series between the Kansas City Royals and the visiting Baltimore Orioles will get underway.Royals vs. Orioles Series Info Orioles @ Royals Time: Friday, April 19 at 7:40 PM ET Royals...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The Seattle Mariners will be on the road, opening a three-game set against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, April 19 at 8:40 PM ET.Rockies vs. Mariners Series Info Mariners @ Rockies Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:40 PM ET Rockies...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The San Diego Padres will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for a three-game series, with the first matchup getting underway at 9:40 PM ET on Friday, April 19.Padres vs. Blue Jays Series Info Blue Jays @ Padres Time: Friday,...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

In the opener of a three-game series, on Friday, April 19 at 10:10 PM ET, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets.Dodgers vs. Mets Series Info Mets @ Dodgers Time: Friday, April 19 at 10:10 PM ET...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

The Cubs’ Top Two Approach, What the First Half Showed, Three True Outcomes, and Other Cubs Bullets

Read More

more cubs news

Latest News

more cubs news

Most Popular

Most Popular

Latest News

Most Popular

Most Popular