All right. I kinda had to just re-set myself (I’m a bit of a mess right now, cognitively, thanks to the Blogathon), and in so doing I’ll try to re-set where things stand in the wake of the Juan Soto deal.
Firstly, the Padres are getting Soto. No one seems to have any concerns about the deal falling through. It’s going to feature a monster return going to the Nationals (though still feels light overall given who Soto is).
But having tried to include Eric Hosmer in the deal to save some salary, and having seen him reject the trade on the basis of his 10-team no-trade clause, the Padres are going to have to figure something else out. You simply cannot keep him after this (and, luxury tax-wise, they might not be able to keep him anyway). And that’s where the Cubs might be able to slide in and finally buy a prospect.
The question is whether the Cubs try to make it a bigger deal – sending the Padres an actual trade chip, and getting an even more substantial return – or whether the Cubs simply try to buy a prospect, and now will trade their pieces elsewhere.
Speaking of which, those dominoes are coming:
My guess is the Cubs are going to continue first exploring a big version of the deal with the Padres until and unless they know it can’t happen. At that point, they sprint out to make the other deals. They’ve got a little over four hours …
UPDATE: No surprise that the Cubs are mentioned here, but just to, you know, confirm that they’re mentioned:
If the Cubs play this just right, they could make out very well. There is a fortuitous opportunity right now.
UPDATE 2: I’m taking a deep breath until we know exactly what this looks like. Maybe the prospect isn’t that great. Maybe the Red Sox are taking on a ton of salary. Maybe. Maybe.