I tend to think that the Cubs will fare much better when full re-ranks come in the offseason after more robust scouting reports are all in, but Baseball America’s latest top 100 update is a reminder that the Cubs are still viewed as lacking in the tip-toppiest of impact prospects. Just Pete Crow-Armstrong (49) and Brennen Davis (51) show up on the list, which now accounts for recent draftees, and interim performance updates. We can’t ignore it just because we don’t like it, and those tip-toppiest of impact prospects do have disproportionate value. It’s an issue.
The Cubs have tons of quality depth – I think everyone agrees on that at this point – but when it comes to the types that you’d regard as clear top 50s? I would have a hard time arguing that services are wrong for not seeing guys like Cristian Hernández or Kevin Alcántara or any of the pitchers as top 50 (or even top 100) types YET. We’ll see what it looks like when all the info is in for the offseason, but that part of the farm development process is still an issue. You look at a guy like Jackson Chourio, the 18-year-old Brewers prospect who went from entirely off the radar to the NUMBER TWO PROSPECT IN BASEBALL ACCORDING TO BA in a single year. The Cubs have done some tremendous things, but they haven’t done that, nor have they seen any of their recent first round picks pop to top 50 status. It’ll hold the system back a bit until/unless some guys really explode.
Other Cubs prospect bits to get into …
Alexander Canario double-dipped on awards for his hilarious July performance, winning Cubs player of the month honors and also Southern League player of the month honors. The 22-year-old Cubs outfielder hit an absolutely silly .354/.500/.800/230 wRC+ for the month. The guy hit the ball that hard that often, despite walking 22.6% of the time. He only struck out 15.5% of the time! HOW?!?!?
Fun fact – it’s only been a week, so we can chill on any extrapolation, but outfielder Yonathan Perlaza has actually be DRAMATICALLY outhitting Canario’s July pace here in August. And it’s not like Perlaza, who hit his 19th homer of the year yesterday, had a bad July himself: .264/.385/.575/149 wRC+. Clearly, he wants to make sure he gets all the honors in August.
Also getting honors, Luke Little won pitcher of the month honors for July for the Cubs. The 2020 4th rounder posted a 1.15 ERA and 1.62 FIP over five July starts, though the Cubs are still keeping the appearances very limited (just 15.2 innings). He struck out 25 in that time, while walking just 5. His huge size, delivery, and stuff are just too much for Low-A hitters, and I think the Cubs must want to see him against High-A batters before the end of the year (especially if he’s not going multiple times through the order). Because of that size and the complicated delivery, I still have my doubts that he can be a starter long term, but obviously you keep him in that role as long as you can.
Luis Devers was probably close to getting his second straight pitcher of the month honors, having posted a 0.42 ERA in July, which coincided with his bump to High-A. He was not registering a lot of strikeouts for the month, which could give you pause – it’s pretty rare that a guy is getting huge results at a low level WITHOUT getting strikeouts, and then goes on to succeed at the higher levels. Then again, the low strikeout rate could be a big flukey, since he was getting plenty at Low-A, and his last two High-A starts have actually featured a ton of Ks. Long story short: yes, Devers is definitely on the prospecting radar.
Speaking of 22-year-old righties at High-A South Bend who should be firmly on your radar: Cubs pitching prospect Daniel Palencia was having a massive “stuff” breakout this year before he injured his ankle on July 16. It looked bad, and I worried that his season might be over, or that he would be hampered upon his return. Well, he returned yesterday, and NO HE WAS NOT HAMPERED:
He touched 102 mph with the fastball and he was throwing his slider in the low-90s. You read those correctly. To me, throwing 27 of 35 pitches for strikes is even more bonkers. Keep this guy healthy and safe, please, because there is ace potential in there. Unlikely? Of course. He’s only 22 and in High-A. Looong way to go. But so few pitchers have the kind of starting point he does.
Just a few years ago, Palencia would be THE story in the farm system. You know how I know? Because when Brailyn Marquez was touching triple digits, he was THE story in the farm system. Now Palencia almost gets ignored, even just on the pitching side, because there are tons and tons of quality pitching prospects all around him.
Speaking of which, we discussed Ben Brown’s dominant Tennessee debut this weekend, which got me thinking again about the prospects the Cubs received at the Trade Deadline. At FanGraphs, they rank all the prospects traded at the deadline, and they are SUPER low on all the Cubs’ gets, relative to the rest of the industry (and the Cubs’ own opinion, clearly). Hayden Wesneski is at the top, but just a 40+ FV and ranked 12th among all prospects dealt. That’s two spots BEHIND the relief prospect the Yankees got for a broken Joey Gallo rental. (As an aside, outside of the Soto, Montas, and Castillo deals, there just weren’t a lot of significant prospects traded this year.)
The theoretical comp pick the Cubs could receive for losing Willson Contreras actually comes in next at 31, with Ben Brown AFTER that at 33 (a 40 FV). I definitely would’ve taken another Brown in a Contreras deal, for what that’s worth, but maybe I’m just buzzing on how good Brown looked this weekend. Then you have relief prospect Saul Gonzalez, traded for Mychal Givens, coming in at 70 (35 FV), which is strikingly low (and definitely calls into question our perception of Givens’ value, just like Ryan Tepera the year before).
What makes all of that very interesting is that FanGraphs is otherwise the high-man on the Cubs’ system, and generally has a lot of the Cubs’ prospects ranking better than various other services. So did the Cubs do poorly this deadline, or did they savvily scout some arms to add, and once they get into the Cubs system and get re-evaluated after the season, their stock will risk considerably? Consider Palencia as the dream example: he was a deeeep scouting pull when the Cubs got him in the Andrew Chafin trade, as he’d only barely pitched at Low-A before the trade (and had no pro game experience before that).
Matt Mervis wants his all-of-baseball RBI lead back (trails Aaron Judge by five after this):
Jeremiah Estrada made his Triple-A debut in that game, giving up a couple hits and a walk, but striking out two in a scoreless frame.
Estrada came in for some singled-out praise on the relief side:
Estrada and Sanders are both Rule 5 eligible after this season, so the Cubs may well bring them up in September to give them that first bit of big league experience in advance of likely being up-down guys in 2023. It’s fun that now “up-down” relief guys for the Cubs are actually really good and there’s just not room for everyone, rather than there being plenty of room, but a lot of the guys are too fringy to be more than up-down.
NEWSLETTER
