Suzuki’s Power Production, Managing Pitcher Innings, Happ and Extensions, and Other Cubs Bullets

Two episodes in, and ‘House of the Dragon’ is just straight up succeeding. I didn’t think I could be this sucked in so quickly after the debacle that was the end of ‘Game of Thrones,’ but they have pulled it off so far. Even when last night’s episode intro’d with the GOT theme song, I was like, yeah, cool, this feels right and good and earned. Shocked myself.

  • This is a well-considered chart overlay from Jordan Bastian on the first year of Seiya Suzuki in the big leagues. When Suzuki is making contact, he’s succeeding. When he’s whiffing, he’s not. True for many players, but it’s a pretty stark one-to-one for Suzuki this year:
  • Overall on the year, Suzuki is hitting .252/.331/.419/109 wRC+, which is good enough for his first year transition into the big leagues, but is not what you would need to see going forward from a bat-first right fielder (and/or, we’d need to see some improvement defensively, where he has looked average or slightly below). More power, in particular, is necessary.
  • Speaking of which. The period Bastian references for the most recent stretch of good results – the last 14 games – Suzuki has been SMOKING the ball (average exit velo is 93.5 mph), and has had solid results, but not a lot of slugging. I think there’s some bad luck there, as his average launch angle during the same period is totally fine (12.4 degrees), and his barrel rate is a solid 10.5%. You’d expect to see an ISO much higher than .150 based on that quality of contact. So either there is some other factor at play here (his hardest contact is on the lower-end of his launch angle, maybe?), or there has just been some bad luck on the extra-base hit side of things the last two weeks. If we see the power production take a big step forward the last month, we will credibly be able to say that it wasn’t just the last month of the year that he finally started really hitting for power. That’s what I’ll be watching most from him going forward.
  • Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy spoke with NBC about how the team is thinking about innings limits for guys like Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson, when they’ve already exceeded previous career highs. It’s a delicate balance:
  • “We’re definitely aware of that,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “We try to communicate as much as we can with the players just about how they’re feeling. We know we don’t want to push these guys to a crazy limit. But we also know that every inning we get this year is just going to help with the volume for next year ….

    “I think if we want to do what we want to do next year, these guys are gonna be a huge part of it. We obviously want to protect them. We also want to make sure they understand what it’s like pitching late in September in some really meaningful games. We’re going to monitor that over the next couple of weeks and make a determination based off of everything that we’re getting. I’d love for them to finish in some capacity.”

  • As long as the risk of serious injury – i.e., the kind that completely messes up the offseason (or more) for the pitcher – is measured exceedingly carefully, it’s OK to push young arms past their previous highs, since that is how you build for the years ahead. That said, even getting these guys up into the 120 to 130 innings range is a whole lot, and sets them up reasonably for 150+ in 2023. Maybe not quite where you’d hope they could be if it’s a deep, competitive run, but an increasingly standard level for starting pitchers. In other words, it’s not a lock nowadays that rotation members healthily can exceed 150 innings anyway. In 2021, there were just 51 pitchers who topped 150 innings (less than two per team). In 2019, it was 70. In 2018, it was 74. If you’ve got two or three starting pitchers who top 150 innings in a given season, you’re not really falling behind.
  • Ian Happ believes the CBA being settled, combined with a little more distance from the pandemic, is why we’re seeing more extensions around baseball. As Happ told the Tribune: “Especially now that you’re at the beginning of a five-year period where things are set, I think that it’s easier for teams to go out and create cost certainty than it was in the last couple of years, especially during the pandemic, and then leading up to a negotiation where you’re trying to figure out exactly what the landscape is going to look like. Now that there is a little bit more certainty, generally what the rules are going to be for five years, that’s why you’re seeing guys and teams go out and try to create more certainty for themselves over the next five.”
  • We’ve talked about the Cubs and Nico Hoerner, the obviousness and desirability of an extension there, but what about Happ, himself? The calculus is very different, as Happ is just one year away from free agency and is less versatile defensively, but if you believe Happ is becoming a more complete bat this year and will carry that forward for the next several years, it’s not inconceivable that he would want to lock down a multi-year guarantee in a range the Cubs are comfortable with. Happ has talked about how much he loves being in Chicago.
  • The flip side there is that, organizationally, the Cubs’ strength in the minor leagues is in the outfield. Almost to a ridiculous extent. In order to justify extending Happ, there would probably have to be a belief that a number of the top outfield prospects in the system will wash out, a number will be traded, and a hypothetical Happ deal is simply too great of a value to pass on. It’s pretty hard to see all of that coming together, as much as I like Happ as a player. I think this offseason will be very interesting as far as Happ and the Cubs go, since they’re going to have to talk to him anyway because of arbitration, and you also wonder if the trade rumors from midseason will be revisited (then again, are the Cubs really going to want to lose his bat in a year they hope to be competitive?).
  • If you missed the major overnight news, the MLBPA is pushing to unionize the minor leagues. It’s a big, big deal, whether or not the effort succeeds.
  • And if you missed the roster news for later today, Jeremiah Estrada and Brendon Little are coming.
  • See, Marcus Stroman wants Shohei Ohtani on the Cubs:
  • Josh Hader got blown up again, and some of the numbers are just nutty:
  • We’ve reached the unthinkable point of even ASKING whether Hader might get non-tendered at the end of the year. He’s due a substantial raise on his $11 million salary (arbitration is cumulative, not just about a terrible recent second half), and that seems like a huge bet on a reliever that might have some serious issues. Of course, the flip side is that if you can get him right, he’s one of the best three or so relievers in baseball, and any team with playoff aspirations for 2023 (besides the Brewers) would love to have a guy like that.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

    A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

    Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

    It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

    OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

    That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    *SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

    The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

    I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

    Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

    ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

    There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

    Latest News

    UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

    The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

    Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

    The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

    How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

    The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

    Alabama vs. Clemson: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will take the court for an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM ET,...

    Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

    We saw some wild games last night as the Sweet 16 started hot as March Madness continues. There are great matchups tonight worth checking out. Take a look at today's March Madness schedule for Friday, March 29. The Sweet 16...

    Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

    There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

    SEC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

    The Friday postseason college basketball slate includes two games featuring an SEC team in action. Among those games is the Creighton Bluejays playing the Tennessee Volunteers. Here are our recomendations for the best bets on action throughout the conference.How to...

    Big 12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

    There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big 12 squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on Big 12 Games[lasso...

    ACC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

    There are two games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature ACC squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on ACC Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best ACC...

    Big East Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

    There are three games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big East squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Creighton Bluejays versus the Tennessee Volunteers.How to Bet on Big East Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"...

    more cubs news