NEWSLETTER
Before the 2017 Draft, the Cubs committed to restocking their farm system with pitching. Ten of their first 13 selections would be pitchers, and for years, the lack of progress from those players was held up as an example of the Cubs’ ineptitude at developing pitchers. It often seemed fair, honestly.
Today, two of the Cubs’ three seven-figure bonus players from that draft – Brendon Little and Jeremiah Estrada – are getting called up to join the Cubs in Toronto. A draft that wound up being replete with big leaguers at the top for the Cubs – all seven of the top seven picks have made the big leagues, now with Little and Estrada coming up. Perhaps we can use this moment, and how each of Little and Estrada has reinvigorated his career out of the bullpen in the last 15 months, as an example of the Cubs improvements at developing pitchers?
Eh, it’s probably just best to wait and see how Little and Estrada tackle this last and most profound hurdle. I want to talk about each player as an individual talent, as we await to see how their stuff will translate to the Major League level. In both cases I remain optimistic, though one player has blossomed into the best pure reliever prospect in the system.
Jeremiah Estrada
Jeremiah Estrada was the Cubs’ only high school pitcher signing from the 2017 Draft, and he instantly intrigued as one of the higher upside arms the Cubs had taken in years. What followed is a years-long battle with the UCL in his elbow, best outlined in this piece last year by Pelicans broadcaster Sam Weiderhaft. In short, doctors first determined Estrada would not need Tommy John, so he rehabbed without surgery and missed the 2018 season. Then in 2019, the UCL tore completely, requiring Tommy John surgery that he largely rehabbed during the lost pandemic season of 2020. I was still high enough on Estrada post-surgery – after a fun showing in Eugene – to consider him a favorite off-the-radar prospect.
Given the limited inning workload he’d had for a half-decade, the Cubs converted Estrada to relief in 2021. And when you watch the intensity that Estrada pitches with, it certainly feels like a match made in heaven.
Estrada is now a heavy-set intimidating presence on the mound, far larger than the 6-1, 185 build he was as a projectable teenager (and is still listed). Estrada does a fantastic job of engaging his lower body, and has a long arm action that I think creates deception against right-handed hitters. Or at least that’s what I’m telling myself is one of the reasons behind his absurd 48.5 K% against right-handed hitters this season.
As the 2022 season has gone along, the (knock on wood) healthiest of Estrada’s professional career, Estrada’s velocity has only increased as he’s thrown more. In recent weeks, Estrada has been 96-99 mph, and thanks to Lance Brozdowski, we know the pitch also features elite riding action. When above 97, the pitch is a double-plus offering that lends to a closer projection.
In 2021, Estrada didn’t take off in part because of a lack of a true plus secondary offering. His changeup, which had really improved during the 2018-2019 time off, was the featured secondary, and is still part of his arsenal against left-handed hitters. The curveball was just average last year, so under the tutelage of A-ball coaches Clayton Mortensen and Tony Cougoule, Estrada learned a slider. His career has taken off as a result.
The slider, thrown in the 85-89 range, features good and sharp diagonal action. As the 2022 season has gone along, Estrada has become more proficient at using the pitch in different ways, be it at the back foot of left-handed hitters or a comebacker to the inside corner against righties. We’ll see the changeup and curveball some as his big league career progresses, but with two pitches as good as his primaries, the burden on those other pitches is low.
Brendon Little
As we transition to talking about Brendon Little, it’s fun to see the parallels leading to similar success. Little also has gained weight over his time in the system, and like Estrada, also had a slider replace his (previously highly praised) curveball as his main breaker. A lot of Little’s development occurred during 2020, on his own, taking his career into his hands.
Last fall, the Cubs gave Little an opportunity to win a 40-man roster spot by pitching in the Arizona Fall League following a really intriguing end to the 2021 regular season. Unfortunately, Little suffered a stress reaction in his elbow after just one appearance, ending that opportunity before it really began (it probably caused a 10-spot drop in my offseason rankings, down to 45). He would not make his 2022 debut until May, and while the results were good early on, it seemed like the stuff quality was not the caliber it had been in 2021.
After a June swoon in the strike-throwing department, Little has taken off since the calendar flipped to July. His numbers in the last 13 games: 17 IP, 14 H, 1.06 ERA, 4 BB, 16 K, 73 GB%.
The latter number, Little’s obscene groundball rate, probably speaks best to his stuff profile. The primary pitch is a sinker with really good late diving action. The recent velocity has been in the 93-96 range, with the control well out-pacing the command still. If he can throw strikes consistently, Little has the makings of the reliever you bring in to induce a double play ball.
We’ll see a lot of the slider as well, where he’s down to about 84-87 this year after more pitches in the upper 80s last year. The pitch is less sharp than Estrada’s, and more sweeping, both vertically and horizontally. Really good hitters can see the pitch early enough to lay off, so any cues that Tommy Hottovy’s staff can give him to help tunnel the pitch will be useful in the bigs. Sometimes, he can make hitters look pretty darn silly with it.
If we see a third pitch from Little, I suspect it will be a four-seam fastball before the changeup or curveball. But the key is the sinker-slider mix, with early-count sinker command probably the make-or-break thing to look for in his first few Major League games.
I think it’s safe to say that Little is pitching for a 40-man spot with every outing the rest of the year, so hopefully we see that urgency come with great results during the Cubs trip north.
