NEWSLETTER
Starting next season, there will be a timer running from the moment the pitcher receives the ball back from the catcher, until he starts his delivery. The pitcher will have 15 seconds between pitches when the bases are empty, and 20 seconds with runners on base.
The coming rule has been cheered by a majority of fans and league executives (and virtually everyone who has experienced it in the minor leagues is, at worst, agnostic), but maligned by a handful of outspoken pitchers at the big league level.
That always left an open question: how many current big league pitchers would ACTUALLY be impacted by the new pitch clock? We know that it’s a lot more than zero, since that’s the whole point, but is there anywhere we can check to see how guys have been performing, speed-wise, even before the clock is implemented?
Yes!
Today, the crew at Statcast dropped a fascinating and helpful set of data on pitcher tempo, designed to give us a rough sense of how pitchers MIGHT be impacted by next year’s pitch clock. There is some estimating involved, but it’s a pretty good guideline, or at least more than we had before.
For the Chicago Cubs, not a single active pitcher’s median estimated time between pitches is over that 15 second mark with the bases empty. Not one! The only pitcher on the 40-man roster who was over the mark (at about 19.3 seconds) was Ethan Roberts, and unfortunately he is out right now after undergoing Tommy John surgery. (Roberts is likewise the only Cubs pitcher over 20 seconds with runners on base, at 24.3 seconds.)
Most Cubs pitchers fall into the 11 to 12-second range, with only Erich Uelmen (13.5) over the 13-second mark. On the other end of the spectrum, Wade Miley (5.3 seconds) is notoriously fast. Drew Smyly (9.5), Sean Newcomb (9.9), and Keegan Thompson (10.1) are also rather zippy.
Basically all pitchers increase their time between pitches by quite a bit when there are runners on base (hence the different timers), but it’s worth noting that there are two Cubs pitchers who take a really sizable jump with runners on base: Adrian Sampson and Javier Assad. Both still have median times under 20 seconds, though.
Around the league, there are only 61 pitchers (among pitchers who are regular starters or relievers) whose median pitch time comes in above 15 seconds with the bases empty. Just 47 are above 20 seconds with runners on base.
Of course, that doesn’t QUITE tell us what we want to know, since we’d maybe rather know the guys who’ll be impacted most frequently by the rule (i.e., the guys who more often than not take those SUPER LONG recovery times between pitches, even if their median time isn’t that bad).
Thankfully, Statcast has that measured as well, noting the guys who most frequently take 30 seconds or more between pitches – i.e., the times when your routine would really be screwed up by a pitch clock. You’ll recognize some of the slowest names with the bases empty, and it’s probably not a coincidence that they are power relievers. Among them: Cardinals reliever Giovanny Gallegos, Guardians hair man James Karinchak, Brewers closer Devin Williams, and White Sox closer Liam Hendriks.
With runners on base, you start seeing a lot of starting pitchers show up higher on the list of guys who frequently (20% of the time or more) have a between-pitches moment that lasts 30 seconds or more. Among them: Blake Snell, Frankie Montas, Marin Perez, Zac Gallen, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, Max Fried, Paul Blackburn, Jordan Montgomery, Joe Musgrove, and Alek Manoah. These are the starters who could be most impacted by the addition of the pitch clock. (Ohtani being on the list is perhaps notable if you are among those who REALLY want the Cubs to go after him this offseason, as I do. He can adjust without issue, right?)
Adrian Sampson would fall on that list (22.5% of the time with runners on base he takes 30 seconds or more between pitches), and Javier Assad is pretty close (19.1% of the time).
All in all, the sense I get from perusing the data is that it’s not as if MOST pitchers are gonna be hammered by this change. Yes, it will impact a whole lot of pitchers some of the time. They will have to adjust their routines, and frankly, sometimes they’re going to violate the rule and the batter will get an extra ball called. Overall, pitchers are just going to have to pick up their rhythms a bit, which of course, is the whole point: more consistent and expeditious flow to the game. Less downtime. I truly believe pitchers will adjust fine overall.
Then again, not to be lost in this discussion of the pitch clock: it’s not JUST about the pitchers. The batter has to be in the box and ready for a pitch with at least eight seconds left on the clock. That means the batters who do a very pronounced set of rituals after every pitch will be impacted by the clock as well. I don’t have any data available on those guys, other than to say Nomar Garciaparra has announced his retirement again.
