Japanese Ace Koudai Senga “Will Be Pursued” by the Chicago Cubs This Offseason

Twice in the last ten days, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney at The Athletic have dropped a reference to a specific free agent, and I’m thinking we’re going to want to pay attention to that.

First, in an article primarily about the Cubs’ search for offensive power this offseason, The Athletic duo mention one pitcher specifically by name (emphasis mine):

At minimum this winter, it looks like the Cubs will layer their roster with two more large investments along the lines of the contracts guaranteed to Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman. Signing one of the All-Star shortstops — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — and a frontline starting pitcher like Koudai Senga out of Japan would move the needle.

Then, in a fresh article today about Drew Smyly and the Cubs (great read for that stuff!), Sharma writes this (again, emphasis mine):

It could make sense to try and lure Jacob deGrom on a high average annual value, short-term deal, similar to the one Max Scherzer signed with the Mets (three years, $130 million) last winter. That is probably a long shot though. Carlos Rodón putting together a full, healthy season likely has the Cubs intrigued, and Japanese righty Koudai Senga will be pursued as well. Those are the type of big-name players the Cubs should and likely will be looking to add this winter.

Hmm. A “frontline starting pitcher,” with Koudai Senga name-dropped twice, “will be pursued.”

So, yeah, I would put Senga squarely on your radar.

You remember Koudai Senga, right? He’s the 29-year-old ace out of Japan with a mid-90s fastball, available as a true free agent this offseason — which means no draft pick compensation (like Carlos Rodon this offseason, who is reportedly interested in signing with the Cubs) and no posting fee (like Seiya Suzuki cost the Cubs last winter).

We discussed his availability and attractiveness about a month ago, in case you missed it:

So will he be any good in the states?

Unfortunately, it’s extremely difficult to determine out how a specific player’s skillset will translate from Japan to MLB. Some players have a great deal of success, of course, but some never quite make the transition. And since I’m not intimately familiar with Senga, I can’t tell you for sure that he’ll be a No. 2 or No. 3 (or whatever) in the States.

But I can tell you that he’s been VERY good in the NPB and has the sort of stuff that certainly could work in MLB. Let’s start with a quick look at the numbers:

This season (2022), Senga has a 2.05 ERA over 16 starts and 105.1 IP. He’s struck out a massive 115 batters during that stretch (28.1 K%) while walking just 33 (8.0%), and batters are having a very hard time finding grass when they do put the ball in play (just 74 hits). But he’s far from a one-hit wonder.

Senga has a career 2.45 ERA in Japan over 268 starts and nearly 1,300 IP.

Setting aside the stats, Senga also hurls a fastball around 95-96 MPH on average, but I’ve read multiple reports of him dialing it up into the upper-90s (even touching 100 mph) in the past. Senga also throws a slider, a cutter, and a two-seamer, as well as the occasional curveball, but it’s his forkball that receives most of the attention.

Since I wrote that post, Senga’s ERA in the NPB this season dropped to 2.03. For some context, Masahiro Tanaka was posting ERAs under 2.00 for the four years before he came to the States and joined the Yankees in advance of his age 25 season. It’s been eight years at this point, but Tanaka’s deal was for seven years and $155 million.

Bringing it back to our duo at The Athletic: I found it interesting to see Senga’s name mentioned – of all the possible free agent starting pitchers to bring up — by Sharma and Mooney, whom I consider among the most well-informed and tapped-in writers on the Cubs beat. And while I don’t necessarily think they’re hiding any inside information about where that process is headed (I’m sure Senga doesn’t even know for sure where he’ll end up), I do think it’s worth keeping him in mind. And as a fan, I’m just happy to see a building consensus around what seems to be a pretty obvious fit for the Cubs.

And for even more confirmation of his expected impact, Jeff Passan includes Senga in his second highest tier of impending free agents, a group that includes Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Edwin Diaz, and Chris Bassitt:

Koudai Senga, RHSP: Teams have long awaited the day Senga comes to MLB, and with his free agency finally a reality, if he chooses to do so, he’ll be one of the most popular players this winter. His stuff is unimpeachable: a fastball that hit 101.9 mph earlier this year and a split-fingered fastball that moves as if possessed. At 6-1, 200 pounds, Senga isn’t necessarily imposing, but his numbers this season — 124 innings, 89 hits, 40 walks, 137 strikeouts, seven home runs allowed, 2.03 ERA — certainly qualify.

Needless to say, he’s going to be a highly-coveted free agent this winter.

Brett Taylor contributed to this post.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

Latest News

Orioles vs. Angels Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Baltimore Orioles begin their season as -192 favorites in a home tilt against the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSW.Baltimore's Corbin Burnes and Los Angeles' Patrick Sandoval have been named the starters for...

Wyoming vs South Dakota Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – March 29

The South Dakota Coyotes (23-12) will try to break a three-game road losing streak when they square off against the Wyoming Cowgirls (17-14) on March 29, 2024 at Arena-Auditorium.Wyoming vs. South Dakota NCAA Game InfoDate: Friday, March 29, 2024Time: 8:30...

Minnesota vs North Dakota State Women’s College Basketball Odds and Prediction – March 29

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-15) face the North Dakota State Bison (22-11) on March 29, 2024.Minnesota vs. North Dakota State NCAA Game InfoDate: Friday, March 29, 2024Time: 8:00 PM ETWhere: Minneapolis, MinnesotaVenue: Williams ArenaLast Game For Each TeamMinnesota enters this...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Tampa Bay Rays (0-0) and the Toronto Blue Jays (0-0) face off on Thursday at Tropicana Field for Opening Day. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET.The Rays will call on Zach Eflin versus the Blue Jays and Jose...

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) and the St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) face off at Dodger Stadium on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, starting a four-game series.The Dodgers will look to Tyler Glasnow versus the Cardinals and Miles Mikolas.Dodgers vs. Cardinals...

Padres vs. Giants Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The San Francisco Giants (0-0) begin a four-game series against the San Diego Padres (1-1) on Thursday at PETCO Park. First pitch is at 4:10 PM.The Padres will look to Yu Darvish versus the Giants and Logan Webb.Padres vs. Giants...

Astros vs. Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Houston Astros (0-0) and the New York Yankees (0-0) face off on Thursday at Minute Maid Park for Opening Day. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET.The Astros will call on Framber Valdez against the Yankees and Nestor Cortes...

Reds vs. Nationals Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Cincinnati Reds (0-0) and the Washington Nationals (0-0) face off on Thursday at Great American Ball Park for Opening Day. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET.The Reds will call on Frankie Montas against the Nationals and Josiah Gray.Reds...

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Miami Marlins (0-0) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (0-0) match up on Thursday at LoanDepot park for Opening Day. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET.The Marlins will look to Jesus Luzardo versus the Pirates and Mitch Keller.Marlins vs. Pirates...

Twins vs. Royals Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Kansas City Royals (0-0) host the Minnesota Twins (0-0) in an Opening Day contest at 4:10 PM ET on Thursday.The Twins will call on Pablo Lopez versus the Royals and Cole Ragans.Twins vs. Royals Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen:...

more cubs news