Early Free Agency Tiers Provide a Lot of Options and Question for the Chicago Cubs

For reasons we have discussed at length over the last few months, it is reasonable to EXPECT the Chicago Cubs to be very active in free agency this offseason. No, you cannot guarantee that Target X will definitely sign with your team, but the Cubs could identify enough high-impact targets, and make enough dollars available, that they should be able to make notable upgrades to a team that has the chance of being an on-paper NL Central contender come March.

Honestly, I don’t think anything is entirely off the table, even if there are a handful of free agents whose pursuit would really surprise me (for example, Aaron Judge getting 10 years from the Cubs doesn’t make a TON of sense to me, given the roster, the farm system, and the other areas where big impact spending could take place (plus, I just don’t love the risk of his huge body aging well into his 30s)).

So, when Jeff Passan, working with a group of other ESPN evaluators, drops his early free agency tiers, I’m paying attention to almost every name on the list as a possible Cubs target. The Cubs aren’t actually going to pursue every nine-figure free agent, but they will have the ability to do so. And, again, I think they are at a stage where they’ve got some quality regulars on the roster, a ton of useful depth, but not necessarily a lot of tip-top impact types in the upper minors or ready to go in the big leagues. That seems like a good spot to be thinking about high-dollar impact investments, spread across, say, last offseason (Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman) and the next two.

Anyway, ESPN’s early ranking tiers have just four free agents in the very top tier, and I’ll call one of them a mild surprise: Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado, Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner.

For me, the surprise isn’t so much those four names in the abstract, but the fact that only Turner gets the inclusion among the shortstops. Carlos Correa (citing a step back in defense), Xander Bogaerts (a couple years older than Correa), and Dansby Swanson (limited track record at this elite level) all wind up in Tier Two for various reasons. For Passan, then, he’s got Turner clearly atop the shortstop group.

Turner (recently connected to the Cubs!), 29, is putting together another strong season in the field and at the plate (.305/.350/.488/134 wRC+), though I personally remain a little concerned about how much of his production is floated by his elite speed, which is likely to see a decline sooner rather than later – his .347 BABIP is heavily speed-based, and his .183 ISO (lowest in four years) is not necessarily the product of huge power as it is his hustle speed (consider the mediocre 7.9% barrel rate). Those are somewhat nitpicky, mind you, because he also hits a lot of line drives and doesn’t strike out, and it’s not like his speed doesn’t significantly boost his value, even if it declined a bit from here. It’s not hard to imagine a world where the larger bases and pick-off limits boost it further next year. I can understand why Passan and Co. put him in Tier One.

The other Tier Two free agents, joining the shortstops: Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Edwin Diaz, Koudai Senga, and Chris Bassitt. The Cubs have been connected to Rodon and Senga this week, and have had a connection to Verlander in the past (TBD whether a guy at his age is going to be willing to roll the dice on the Cubs winning right away in 2023).

Noticeably absent from Tier Two? Willson Contreras, who is in Tier Three with guys like Brandon Nimmo, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Bell, Adam Wainwright, and Jose Abreu, among others. The question remains: will Contreras and his agent find the open market strong enough right away to confidently reject the Qualifying Offer from the Cubs, and then sign a big deal out there despite being attached to draft pick compensation?

Tiers Four (46) and Five (42) are where the sheer number of free agents explode, but you do still see a ton of interesting options for a team like the Cubs, who are going to be in the market for sure-fire impact, yes, but also complementary/upside/reclamation types.

Stray names that jumped out at me in a “oh yeah, that guy is going to be a free agent, too, hmmmm” kind of way: Carlos Carrasco, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Noah Syndergaard, Taijuan Walker, Christian Vazquez, Kevin Kiermaier, David Peralta, Zack Britton.

I don’t know that Joey Gallo or Michael Conforto are the right move for the Cubs, but I do think their free agencies and attempted reclamations in 2023 will be interesting to follow.

Check out the full list of free agents and tiers over at ESPN, and start formulating those offseason wish lists. Like I said, I think it’s going to be completely reasonable to have an aggressive list. We’ve been very good boys and girls.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

Latest News

Orioles vs. Angels Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Baltimore Orioles (0-0) open their 2024 season with a home game against the Los Angeles Angels (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 3:05 PM ET.The Orioles will call on Corbin Burnes versus the Angels and Patrick Sandoval.Orioles vs....

Celtics vs. Hawks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Atlanta Hawks (33-39) are big, 17.5-point underdogs as they attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Boston Celtics (57-15) on Thursday, March 28, 2024 at State Farm Arena. The matchup airs at 7:30 PM...

Celtics vs. Hawks Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Atlanta Hawks (33-39) are big, 17.5-point underdogs as they attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Boston Celtics (57-15) on Thursday, March 28, 2024 at State Farm Arena. The contest airs at 7:30 PM...

Bucks vs. Pelicans Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The New Orleans Pelicans (44-28) are only 2-point underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks (46-26) at Smoothie King Center on Thursday, March 28, 2024. The game begins at 8:00 PM ET on NBA. The matchup's point total is 223.If you are...

How to Watch Indiana State Sycamores vs. Utah Utes: Live Stream or on TV

The Indiana State Sycamores (31-6) will attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Utah Utes (22-14) on April 2, 2024. The Utes have also won three games in a row.Indiana State won its most recent...

How to Watch Seton Hall Pirates vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Live Stream or on TV

The Seton Hall Pirates (23-12) will attempt to extend a three-game win streak when they host the Georgia Bulldogs (20-16) on April 2, 2024. The Bulldogs have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Seton Hall beat...

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Arizona Diamondbacks, led by Corbin Carroll, take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies in their first game of the season, at 10:10 PM ET on Thursday.Keep reading to find out all the details on how to watch Arizona...

How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Seattle Mariners when they square off against starting pitcher Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox in their season opener on Thursday, with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET.The article below will...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Cleveland Guardians, led by Jose Ramirez, square off against Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics in their first game of the season, at 10:07 PM ET on Thursday.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for streaming and...

Senators vs. Blackhawks Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The sportsbooks pick the Ottawa Senators to beat the Chicago Blackhawks in their matchup on Thursday, March 28, with the Senators given moneyline odds of -198 on home ice, and the Blackhawks at +164.Senators vs. Blackhawks Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Senators...

more cubs news