Let’s Talk About the Guys on the Cubs 40-Man Bubble … There Are So Very Many of Them

One shorthand we’ve been using often around here for the past couple months are defining certain players as “bubble” guys as it relates to the pending 40-man roster crunch. This term is meant to suggest that a player exists in the gray area, requiring Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins to make a decision about their future this offseason (I wrote about the schedule for those decisions last month). Remember, this crunch exists because the Cubs will have to protect a number of minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft (more on that part, specifically, in posts to come).

I identified 20 players below, from either the current 40-man roster or one of the inactive lists (and thus would have to go back on the 40-man after the postseason), as players who are on the bubble. I didn’t include Jason Heyward, whose future is already certain, and am operating under the belief that Javier Assad, P.J. Higgins, Adrian Sampson, Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Jeremiah Estrada are “locks.” Your mileage may vary on one or two of those guys, but it seems correct as we sit here today.

These are the guys that I could probably be talked into one way or the other, so let me lay out the cases for and against keeping each on the 40-man roster before coming to any soft conclusions …

David Bote

Case for: He has a guaranteed contract and options remaining, offers versatility and theoretical thump off the bench. Wound up hitting .259/.315/.431/110 wRC+ in his injury-shortened season.

Case against: The upside that Bote’s fantastic exit velocities suggested never materialized, as he’ll be 30 next April. Younger, internal options (like Levi Jordan) provide a similar skillset without taking up a 40-man spot.

Steven Brault

Case for: Really effective when healthy in 2022, particularly as a LOOGY (even though that role doesn’t exist anymore), as left-handed hitters went 2-for-29 against him. Improved slider as a result of working with the Cubs pitching team.

Case against: He’s arbitration-eligible and I think you’d only project him in short relief anymore. Is it worth paying a guaranteed seven figures for this limited skillset? Could you non-tender him and get him to return on an expensive minor league deal?

Narciso Crook

Case for: A guy the Cubs identified as someone they could help discover more power, and it came true, with Crook posting the best HR/FB% of his career.

Case against: Cubs are loaded with RHH outfielders, and outside of a really hot June-July, Crook was relatively below-average in Triple-A. He’s oft-injured, strikes out a lot, and a below-average arm limits his defensive capabilities.

Anderson Espinoza

Case for: Has generally risen to the challenge in Major League opportunities. Pitching coaches definitely see a lot of potential for improvements.

Case against: Stuff went backwards this year, had a 7.55 ERA in the minors this season. The stuff grades horribly, 25 on the fastball and 30 on the slider by Cameron Grove’s 20-80 model. Never rediscovered the changeup after his arm injuries.

Mark Leiter Jr.

Case for: I think he made a pretty good case on the field this year, worth 0.8 wins by bWAR, with an xFIP even better than his ERA. His split-changeup has been one of the most successful in baseball, and with six pitches, you figure some sequence optimization is more than possible.

Case against: Will be out of options and 32 next season, you figure there’s probably not another jump in stuff to be had. Do you let him fight for a middle relief spot in Spring Training, or is a 40-man spot too valuable for that player type?

Brailyn Marquez

Case for: One of the more talented left-handed throwers of a baseball on Earth when healthy.

Case against: Has faced seven batters in the last 161 weeks.

Zach McKinstry

Case for: Versatile, bats from the left, tons of Triple-A success. Signs of getting comfortable; had a .186 ISO in his final 39 games of the season.

Case against: Will be out of options next season, and will you want to be stuck with a bench containing both Nick Madrigal and McKinstry? Has not been able to translate a good contact rate from the minors to the Majors, and I thought (though the numbers don’t really reflect it) he seemed pretty shaky defensively in the second half.

Alec Mills

Case for: Threw a really fun no-hitter. Entered this season with a pretty long track record of being somewhere between average and replacement level, and versatile at that.

Case against: Arbitration-eligible and out of options. Could be his best days are behind him.

Rafael Ortega

Case for: Bats on the left side. Sample is large enough that you trust he’s at least league average against right-handed pitching.

Case against: Can’t play against lefties at all, bad baserunner, seems a stretch in center field anymore. Out of options, and eligible for arbitration for the first time. Do you let him fight for a job in Spring Training because you need the lefty bat option?

Esteban Quiroz

Case for: Fun and (usually) smart player, doesn’t complicate things with his approach or defensively at either second or third base.

Case against: Will turn 31 before next season, limited upside, missed most of 2021 with an injury.

Franmil Reyes

Case for: We saw hints of the power and exit velocities that he can produce when running good. Lived up to his billing as a positive clubhouse presence. Track record of success before 2022.

Case against: Due a raise on his 2022 salary of $4.55 million, which he certainly did not play up to, judging by his -0.9 bWAR. Hit a paltry .197/.284/.299 after that initial good nine-game stretch when he was acquired.

Alfonso Rivas

Case for: Good defensive first baseman, pre-arbitration with multiple option seasons remaining. Takes his walks, offers all-fields approach. Different look.

Case against: Contact abilities have regressed as he’s faced better pitching, especially breaking pitches. He’s a first baseman that doesn’t slug, and the team has internal options that seem equivalent or … preferable?

Ethan Roberts

Case for: Showed really exciting and hyper-unique stuff during his brief time in the Majors. Will only eat a 40-man spot during the offseason, can slide him onto 60-day IL when Spring Training begins.

Case against: Will miss a good chunk of 2023 with an injury, so can you non-tender him and give him a bit of a raise on a minor league deal to rehab off the 40-man roster?

Manuel Rodriguez

Case for: A theoretical plus in raw stuff, plain and simple. Staff hasn’t had the opportunity to develop him, plenty of low-hanging fruit for improvement.

Case against: Fastball dropped a tick-and-a-half in 2022, and it already yielded less whiffs than you’d expect when it was closer to 98. Stuff seems less sexy as organization has other options that throw in the upper nineties.

Michael Rucker

Case for: Executes. Offers multi-inning versatility with multiple pitches that he commands at a better than league average rate. Secondary pitches have good big league track record.

Case against: Fastball velocity has dipped as season went along, and pitch was just average before. Fungible players are the most likely to feel the impacts of roster crunches.

Erich Uelmen

Case for: It’s just really good stuff. Uelmen’s sinker and slider both grade really well, and I think the changeup is big league caliber, too. Unique release point that should make the stuff even play up, if located correctly. 2.16 ERA in final eight appearances.

Case against: Too often threw balls or pitches down the middle third. Some memorable blow-ups in big spots. Do you worry he can’t rise to occasion?

Alexander Vizcaino

Case for: A really fun prospect with an intriguing set of skills. I argued that his stuff late in 2021 was good enough to succeed out of a Major League bullpen in 2022.

Case against: Will turn 26 early next season, hasn’t thrown a pitch above A-ball, and voluntarily sat out the 2022 season.

Rowan Wick

Case for: Has been 12% better than the league average pitcher during his time in the Majors, with not-insignificant stretches where he’s been a really successful set-up man. A lot of the failures he’s had seem to be when used incorrectly (for second inning or back-to-back days), so should be correctable.

Case against: Has had not-insignificant stretches where he’s completely ineffective; runs into barrels way too often. Arbitration-eligible, and should be able to command fairly decent salary.

Brad Wieck

Case for: Would come off the 40-man roster on the first day of Spring Training, where he’d go to 60-day IL. Is always so successful when healthy and on the mound.

Case against: Likely wouldn’t reach Majors in 2023 after Tommy John surgery. Should surely be non-tendered and asked to return and rehab on a minor league contract.

Jared Young

Case for: Beautiful left-handed swing with 4-5 positions of versatility that he can offer a big league bench.

Case against: Got an everyday opportunity at Iowa in 2022, and his 91 wRC+ suggests an offensive upside that isn’t enough for his defensive profile.

Okay, it’s put up or shut up time. Here’s what I got, using the timeline laid out in my aforementioned offseason calendar post.

Outrighted the day after postseason (must be 7): Heyward, Bote, Mills, Wieck, Quiroz, Brault, Vizcaino.

DFA’d or traded at least by protection day (6): Crook, Espinoza, Rivas, Rucker, Wick, Young.

Non-Tendered and then offered an above-market minor league deal (4): McKinstry, Roberts, Reyes, Ortega.

Kept, with status revisited when needed with other offseason additions: Marquez, Rodriguez, Uelmen, Leiter.

This would open up to 10 spots for free agents, trades, waiver claims, and prospect protection decisions. The Cubs will get an additional 3 spots as Willson Contreras, Drew Smyly, and Wade Miley hit free agency.

written by

Bryan Smith is a Minor League Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @cubprospects.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – Friday, March 29, 2024

Today's NBA schedule has 12 quality competitions in store. Among those games is the Minnesota Timberwolves playing the Denver Nuggets.NBA prop bets for today's games are available, so if you're interested in placing a bet or building a parlay, you'll...

Updated Elite 8 Odds: UConn Betting Favorite To Win March Madness

There were some great performances last night including a 30-point win by the UConn Huskies sending them to the Elite Eight. Are they the betting favorite to win March Madness? What team is sitting on top of the odds to...

UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

Alabama vs. Clemson: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will take the court for an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM ET,...

Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

We saw some wild games last night as the Sweet 16 started hot as March Madness continues. There are great matchups tonight worth checking out. Take a look at today's March Madness schedule for Friday, March 29. The Sweet 16...

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

SEC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

The Friday postseason college basketball slate includes two games featuring an SEC team in action. Among those games is the Creighton Bluejays playing the Tennessee Volunteers. Here are our recomendations for the best bets on action throughout the conference.How to...

Big 12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big 12 squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on Big 12 Games[lasso...

more cubs news