NEWSLETTER
Betting odds are not always the best barometer of reality, but I do find them an interesting indicator of – if nothing else – where the bets are going.
I put that caution at the top because otherwise you might look at the following odds and think the market knows something we don’t. I mean, that COULD be the case – but it could also just be the case that there are a whole lot of exuberant Cubs fans putting a whole lot of futures dollars on the team landing free agent shortstop Carlos Correa (h/t @Zones2388 on Twitter):
Those odds at DraftKings don’t just have the Cubs as the betting favorite, they have them waaaaaay out in front. The implied odds there would have the Cubs landing Correa about 26% of the time. Do we think the Cubs right now have a 26% chance of signing Carlos Correa?
… you know, actually … I think it might be closer to that number than people think. Or maybe I’m just one of those exuberant Cubs fans who is overestimating their chances to sign him, despite their reported lack of interest in going beyond six years on any free agents.
Then again, the Twins and Cardinals are tied at the second best odds, and that seems … wrong to me? So how much stock can I really place in the Cubs’ placement if I’m not quite buying what comes next?
Then again again, isn’t Correa’s market really hard to predict? Yeah, I could see the Giants or Yankees going for him if they miss on Aaron Judge. I guess I could see the Red Sox going for him if they lose Xander Bogaerts. The Phillies seem to be mostly about Trea Turner. The Braves aren’t doing it. The Dodgers apparently still worry about World Series backlash. It’s hard to peg.
The Cubs are out there talking to shortstop reps, though, so we shall see.
