NEWSLETTER
This is really interesting stuff coming from Sahadev Sharma, who I’m going to tell you is *NOT* one who is prone to fits of irrationality. It’s just speculation, mind you, so you can take it only so far. But when Sharma speculates, I listen.
From his appearance on Marquee, talking about the shortstop market and the Chicago Cubs:
Bold predictions indeed.
So, there are two big things in there. For one, it’s another local prediction of the Cubs landing Carlos Correa, as Sharma joins Gordon Wittenmyer on that front. More informed speculation? Perhaps. But even setting that aside, I think the important thing that this tells you is that the Cubs, yes, seriously are serious about being serious about Carlos Correa. I don’t know how many more times we have to see the evidence to know that it’s just true. The Cubs are heavy on Correa. Period.
Which leads to the other thing, which was the first VERY BOLD prediction of Sharma’s: none of the free agent shortstops gets 8+ years. I had to do a double-take on that one, even as I understand his rationale. Basically, the only players who get deals of that length anymore are a good bit younger than the current group. The exception was Corey Seager last year, and that did have the feel of some Rangers desperation (and also he was still 27 at the time of signing).
Can I really see ALL of Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson signing for seven years or fewer? Well, I think that’s easy enough on Bogaerts and Swanson. To me, six years feels like the realistic cap there. But Turner? Even at 29/30, and even where speed is such a key part of his game, I would bet on him getting eight years or more. And Correa, that’s been my running expectation.
HOWEVER, if Sharma is right – he does allow for the situation changing down the road, mind you – and Correa (and Turner) max out at seven years, then suddenly it’s a LOT easier to see how it’s possible that the Cubs could land him, and why Sharma might be bold enough to predict that it’s going to happen.
We know that the Cubs pursued Correa before the lockout last year, reportedly on a seven-year offer. Perhaps they’re sticking there, even though Correa is now a year older. And perhaps the market really will not be there for a team to go to eight years or more, and/or to top the Cubs’ AAV.
