The Rule 5 Draft Is Back, And It Was A Busy One For The Cubs (UPDATES)

The Rule 5 Draft is now complete. See the updates and picks at the bottom of the post.

It’s been quite fun to experience the Winter Meetings acting like the Winter Meetings again this week. And, as we draw closer to their conclusion, it’s time for the normal final event: the Rule 5 Draft.

Due to the lockout, we didn’t have one last year, and it was of course virtual in 2020, so this is the first “normal” Rule 5 Draft in three years. It begins at 4pm CT.

Also, due to the lack of a draft last year, the talent pool is deeper than I ever remember it being for this year’s edition. Given the shortened 2020 Draft and reduction of the short-season A-ball level, this might be the deepest draft for years to come. However, I have had baseball insiders suggest to me it could make for a less active Major League phase than usual, as roster crunches are more pervasive across MLB than usual this winter.

For the uninitiated, the Rule 5 Draft is an opportunity for teams to poach players from other organizations that meet certain criteria. For the Major League phase, it means that a player has not been added to the 40-man roster after 3-4+ years in the organization. A team opting to make a draft pick must pay $100,000 and then keep the player on their 26-man roster for the entire 2023 season (or offer him back to his original team for $50,000).

For the minor league phase, eligible players are those not on the 40-man MLB roster OR 38-man AAA roster. These AAA lists aren’t public, but I did make a guess at what the Cubs list might look like here. Selections in the minor league phase require no special 2023 rostering rules; the selected player changes organizations permanently.

I have written about the Cubs roster crunch for the better part of six months — amid plenty of skepticism from some — and today we’ll see if the concern was warranted. The best Rule 5 preview in the business is behind the paywall at Baseball America, but I can share this: the Cubs are one of only five organizations with five players on the BA preview list (not surprisingly, it’s Tampa, the Dodgers and the Yankees at the top). [Post-publish edit: Cubs are now up to seven, so they passed the Yankees.]

Here is how I rank the players likeliest to be drafted away from the Cubs today:

As for the Cubs, it’s the expectation of both Brett and myself that the Cubs don’t make a selection in the Major League phase. The team’s activity in the free agent market should have the 40-man filled soon enough, and the Cubs seem to feel okay about their depth at the end of the roster.

If the Cubs change course and do make a pick, I expect it to be one of these player types:

  • Left-handed reliever. A current hole in the Cubs roster construction. BN friend Tommy has been banging the Antoine Kelly drum for weeks now.
  • Right-handed CF with great glove. Brett threw out Mets prospect Jake Mangum as a name, and he definitely has traction around MLB. I tend to think Cubs fill this spot with a minor league free agent instead.
  • Ready for MLB short-inning flamethrower. Plenty of options out there that fit this bill, though Zach Greene is the most convincing case I’ve heard.
  • First base. Is camp competition for Matt Mervis worth $100,000?
  • I’ll be updating this post as the picks come in, with longer write-ups for anything involving the Cubs. My prediction, for fun: two Cubs drafted in Major League phase, zero Cubs selections in Major League phase, two Cubs drafted in minor league phase, Cubs make one selection in that part of the draft.

    It appears we know the first pick ahead of time!

    The order, which saw the Cubs move up to the eighth team eligible to select as four teams ahead of them had full 40-man rosters.

    1. Nationals – Thad Ward, rhp, Red Sox
    2. Oakland – Ryan Noda, 1b, Dodgers
    3. Pittsburgh – Jose Hernandez, lhp, Dodgers
    4. Cincy – Blake Sabol, of, Pirates
    5. Detroit – Mason Englert, rhp, Rangers
    6. Colorado – Kevin Kelly, rhp, Guardians
    7. Miami – Nick Enright, rhp, Guardians
    8. CUBS – PASS. The first team to do so. This was as I expected, as those inside the organization were citing a roster crunch all year. The Cubs anticipate a full 40-man roster before the month is finished.
    9. White Sox – Nick Avila, rhp, Giants
    10. Orioles – Andrew Politi, rhp, Red Sox.
    11. Milwaukee – Gus Varland, rhp, Dodgers
    12. Phillies – Noah Song, rhp, Red Sox
    13. Padres – Jose Lopez, lhp, Rays
    14. Seattle – Chris Clarke, rhp, Cubs. Okay, I was wrong! Clarke was not on the list of players I thought would be drafted. A big tall righty that pitches on a downhill plane (58 GB% in Double-A), Clarke has fantastic feel and command for his stuff, despite a big body. I think there’s potential for some mechanical changes to unlock a little bit of velocity, and the breaking balls still have the potential to evolve into Major League offerings. Clarke will not be fazed by the opportunity of pitching in the big leagues — Seattle teammates will love him — and his ability to command will give him a chance. For what it’s worth, Clarke was not in the last draft of my top 50 prospects.
    15. Cardinals – Wilking Rodriguez, rhp, Yankees
    16. Mets – Zach Greene, rhp, Yankees

    That was the entire Major League portion, so the front office official at the top of the post that forecasted a less-than-busy Rule 5 Draft was correct. I think we have to consider this a win for the Cubs, who can withstand a small hit to their starting pitching depth, but remain all the flame-throwing relievers that they could potentially ask to pitch in Chicago in 2023.

    MINOR LEAGUE PHASE

    Note that I’ll only put updates in here relevant to the Cubs, be it players they drafted or players drafted away from the organization. Remember, while Clarke may be offered back to the team if he doesn’t make Seattle’s MLB roster, the players selected in the minor league phase are lost without recourse.

    It was just revealed the Cubs have 34 players on their AAA roster right now, so they will be eligible to make up to four selections in the minor league phase. (I don’t anticipate they will use all those.)

    Cubs select Jose Aquino, lhp, Seattle. While most players selected in this phase are guys starting to stall out around Double-A, leave it to the Cubs to pick someone still in Complex ball. Aquino, 20, threw just six innings last year, and none after June 7 (likely due to an injury). However, he did strike out 65 batters in 43.1 innings in the Dominican Summer League in 2021. I’ll dig in and see if I can find anything about his specific stuff. I’d expect Aquino to pitch in Myrtle Beach’s bullpen when he’s next healthy, after a long stretch working with Tony Cougoule at the Cubs complex in Mesa.

    Here’s an intriguing write-up on Aquino from Lookout Landing after the 2021 season, where he ranked as a top 25 prospect in the system:

    At 6-foot-3, 184 pounds, Aquino is starting to grow into his adult body and athletic markers are tantalizing. He’s got long levers and really works down the mound well. The lanky lefty touched 97 this season and worked 91-94, generating the fifth-best whiff rate in the organization at 40.5 percent. Aquino has good spin metrics and throws enough strikes as a 19-year-old to project a starting-caliber arm in the future.

    Cubs select Nick Burdi, rhp, Padres. Now that’s a familiar name. A pitcher that got run with the Pirates in the Majors from 2018-2020, Burdi has been in the Padres organization but has not pitched since then. The Cubs must have some indication that he’s healthy and are trying to take a look. It’s essentially like a veteran minor league free agent signing, similar to what the Cubs did a couple years ago when they took Brock Stewart.

    He threw hard back then:

    It appears Burdi was healthy going into the 2022 season, and looking pretty darn good:

    Astros select Bryan King, lhp, Cubs. King, 26, didn’t make a roster out of Spring Training, but when a hole opened at Low-A Myrtle Beach, he made the most of it. After eight absolutely dominant scoreless innings, King was asked to jump to Double-A Tennessee. Things were doing well there after nine appearances before an injury on July 1 ended his season. I expected King to begin the 2023 season on the Injured List.

    Cubs select Jefferson Encarnacion, of, Phillies. A 21 year old that has never played stateside, and hasn’t played at all since 2019, the Cubs likely had a good scouting report on Encarnacion as an amateur and maybe an inkling that he’s healthy again. I would expect that Encarnacion competes for a roster spot on the 2023 AZL Cubs.

    Or perhaps they were scouting the Phillies backfields in October?

    Cubs pass in Round 4 of the Minor League Phase.

    Astros select Luis A. Rodriguez, lhp, from Cubs. This was a really good pick by the Astros, and likely the player I would have had atop the Cubs available player list. Rodriguez has a history of success, with some dominating minor league numbers: 216 IP, 157 H, 3.04 ERA, 98 BB, 268 K. It’s not overwhelming stuff, but he has fantastic feel for his breaking balls and does a nice job of hiding the baseball. Wore down a bit as last season went on — particularly when he was moved into a starting role — but I think the Astros will do well to utilize him as a two-inning reliever moving forward.

    Draft over! Busy minor league phase today, especially from the two teams that competed in the World Series.

    FINAL THOUGHTS

    I know there’s going to be some sarcastic hand-wringing that I made much ado about nothing as it related to the Cubs and the Rule 5; I was merely passing along what I was hearing from the organization. I think the takeaway is that the Draft was a win for the Cubs, who only saw one player selected in the Major League phase, and that’s a guy heading to a team with championship ambitions that can’t afford to stash a guy on the roster; Clarke will need to succeed. Perhaps the Mariners will try to convince the Cubs that their upper level rotation depth is enough to allow Seattle to acquire him in trade … we know Jerry Dipoto will at least utilize this opportunity to talk about another trade.

    Cubs were active in the minor league phase, but not with players that ended the 2022 season in healthy fashion. I look forward to hearing when the Cubs see these players getting back on the field, particularly Burdi, who I would think could win an Iowa roster spot pretty easily. Losing Rodriguez is probably the worst sting of the day, because I don’t see a ton of depth around that South Bend bullpen where he was projected to in 2023 (depth was impacted by the Zarraga-Mastrobuoni trade last month).

    written by

    Bryan Smith is a Minor League Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @cubprospects.

    more cubs news

    Finally, a Team Wanted the Reigning NL Cy Young Winner

    The rumors all wound up being true: Blake Snell would take a two-year deal in the $60 million range, the Giants were probably the favorites now, and the pressure was on to get something done. Per Jon Heyman, it two...

    Blake Snell’s Reasonable Price Tag? Why Jordan Montgomery Might Wait a Little Longer?

    A couple updates on the top remaining - yup, still - free agent starting pitchers, lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Although rumors picked up on Snell and the Astros late last week, no signing news dropped. It was surprising,...

    Garrett Crochet Will Start on Opening Day for the White Sox, Marking an Extreme Rarity

    We don't cover the White Sox around here in a particularly close way - maybe a touch more than other non-NL-Central clubs because of the intracity interest - but this was surprising and interesting enough for me to note. The...

    Chicago Cubs Shortstop Prospect Jefferson Rojas Wants to Be Javy Báez

    I haven’t exactly made it a secret that Jefferson Rojas is one of my favorite prospects in the Chicago Cubs’ farm system. After debuting in the DSL at 17, Rojas skipped complex ball and wound up at Low-A Myrtle Beach...

    Taillon Throwing and a Roster Benefit, Amaya Catching, Friedl Wrist, Williams, Alonso, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know, if Seiya really rakes, and Cody hits again, and if Nico and Happ get on base a ton and Busch turns out to be a stud, and if Dansby is above average and Amaya breaks out and Morel...

    Spring Training Miscellany: Celebrate With a Green Beer, Happ Returns, Assad Solid, Cubs Win

    The Cubs won their St. Patrick's Day game over the Rangers 8-6 today, and it's time to tip back a green one in celebration ... About what you'd want to see from Javier Assad today as he continues to stretch...

    Chicago Cubs Lineup: Ian Happ is Back!

    *SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse this Chicago Cubs lineup? Don't miss out! For a limited time only, RECEIVE 10% OFF your...

    The Third Cut Includes Mervis, Four Others

    (Hear the song in your mind - it still fits!) The Chicago Cubs made their next set of cuts from big league camp today, sending out five players who were generally not expected to make the Opening Day roster. The...

    Spring Leaders, Key Injuries, Rays Payroll, Luck of the Irish, and Other Cubs Bullets

    A mighty fine St. Patrick's Day to you all. Although I've got a good bit of Irish in my blood, it's never been something I've connected to all that much. You can't really force it, but I kinda want to...

    Spring Training Miscellany: Cubs Sweep the Split-Squad Day

    It was a split-squad day for the Cubs today, and they won both by a total of two runs. It was 4-3 over the Angels and 8-7 over the Royals. The only teams with a better spring record than the...

    Latest News

    Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

    The Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21) are underdogs (+7) as they try to build on a three-game win streak when they host the Denver Nuggets (47-21) at 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Target Center. The game airs on...

    Mavericks vs. Spurs Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

    Southwest Division opponents square off when the Dallas Mavericks (39-29) visit the San Antonio Spurs (15-53) at AT&T Center, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. The Mavericks are 8.5-point favorites in the game, the fourth...

    Pelicans vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

    The Brooklyn Nets (26-42) will try to break a three-game losing streak when they host the New Orleans Pelicans (41-26) on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Barclays Center as 8.5-point underdogs. The matchup airs at 7:30 PM ET on YES....

    Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

    The Minnesota Timberwolves (47-21) are 7-point underdogs as they try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Denver Nuggets (47-21) on Tuesday, March 19, 2024 at Target Center. The contest airs at 9:00 PM ET on NBA....

    Canucks vs. Sabres Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History and Picks – Tuesday, March 19, 2024

    The oddsmakers give the edge to the Vancouver Canucks on home ice (-198) over the Buffalo Sabres (+164) when they play on Tuesday, March 19 at 10:00 PM ET.Canucks vs. Sabres Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Canucks (-198)Underdog: Sabres (+164)Total: 6Best Canucks...

    OH MY: ANTHONY EDWARDS JUST HAD THE BEST DUNK OF THE YEAR

    Anthony Edwards has done it again. The emerging Minnesota Timberwolves superstar jammed the most impressive poster dunk of the season against the Utah Jazz on Monday night. Pushing the pace in transition during the third quarter, Edwards passed the ball...

    De’Aaron Fox Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Grizzlies – Monday, March 18, 2024

    To beat his 3-point prop, De'Aaron Fox must make three from beyond the arc on Monday, when his Sacramento Kings face the Memphis Grizzlies, tipping off at 10:00 PM ET.De'Aaron Fox's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the GrizzliesDe'Aaron Fox's over/under for...

    Malik Monk Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Grizzlies – Monday, March 18, 2024

    Will Malik Monk make three 3-pointers when the Sacramento Kings face the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday at 10:00 PM ET? If so, he'll beat his prop for the game.Malik Monk's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the GrizzliesMalik Monk's over/under for three-pointers...

    Bogdan Bogdanovic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Lakers – Monday, March 18, 2024

    At 10:30 PM ET on Monday, it'll be the Atlanta Hawks against the Los Angeles Lakers, with Bogdan Bogdanovic needing three trifectas to beat his 3-pointer prop.Bogdan Bogdanovic's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the LakersBogdan Bogdanovic's over/under for three-pointers in this...

    Anthony Davis Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Hawks – Monday, March 18, 2024

    The Los Angeles Lakers face the Atlanta Hawks at 10:30 PM ET on Monday, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this clash requires just one make from Anthony Davis.Anthony Davis' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the HawksAnthony Davis' over/under...

    more cubs news