The 2023 ZiPS Projections Are Out for the Chicago Cubs – This Team is Not Terrible

The offseason is not over, and we know the Chicago Cubs are going to do more from here. But the projections have to come out on a publishing schedule, which means the Cubs are getting the ZiPS treatment at FanGraphs today.

Thing is, the overall projections make me slightly MORE optimistic about the season ahead, precisely BECAUSE it’s not hard to see how and where the Cubs could still pretty easily improve from here this offseason:

You can and should go over to FanGraphs to really dig in on the individual projections, because I’m still digesting them myself. I’m going to speak a little more broadly about positional groups for now, and how it relates to the rest of the offseason.

Although you’d like to see at least one of those outfield spots producing an above-3 WAR season, it’s hard to be too upset about all three spots being above average (2.0-ish is about average). And if the Cubs get over 8 WAR from their new middle infield combo? I am sure they would be thrilled.

The rotation projections look awfully strong – if the Cubs have three 3+ WAR starters this year, that’d be pretty nice, when considering the depth – and the bullpen doesn’t look too shabby for not having household names at the back end. And that’s before the official addition of Drew Smyly or any other relievers.

Speaking of the depth, depending on where you’d draw the cutoff for “useful” (let’s say 15% below league average), the Cubs now have a comical volume of projected-to-be-useful arms for 2023 – I count 24(!) of them. And that DOESN’T include a trio of guys that ZiPS is extremely low on, and whom I would definitely call useful: Adrian Sampson, Javier Assad, Drew Smyly. That depth has so much value, because it means when there is an inevitable run on arm health, the Cubs are relying on “slightly below average” guys to fill innings rather than “oh dear god who is starting today?!” Even good teams, on paper, fall into that latter category, and it can really damage a season.

Oh, also? I am willing to be hopeful that the Cubs really turned a corner in the way they work with pitchers the last couple years, and we’re going to continue to see surprisingly good performances that run counter to the projections.

Still, even if you take an optimistic eye toward these projections, it’s not hard to see where the obvious holes remain. Or, I guess more positively framed: the areas where the Cubs have opportunities to still make significant improvements.

At third base and first base – which are going to be somewhat related, depending on what the Cubs do from here, and where Patrick Wisdom winds up getting most of his playing time – there is a clear opportunity to add a bat. First base is probably a touch easier than third base in free agency, and comes with the benefit of being able to coordinate that type of hitter at DH. It’s why Jose Abreu was targeted early, and why Trey Mancini has been percolating as an alternative option. Even if you don’t love Mancini, and even if he doesn’t play every day, his addition would still mark a noticeable improvement to that area of the offense.

Much of the same could be said of Michael Conforto, who could dramatically improve the DH mix, and also provide depth in the outfield (if that throwing shoulder is OK). Again, that’s why there are so many Conforto rumors flowing.

And then, obviously, there’s the catcher spot. Adding someone like Tucker Barnhart is not likely to increase the projected WAR total there THAT much, but it would definitely be a bump, and we know the real reason to do it is to improve pitcher performance (and slide P.J. Higgins into a depth role, rather than a true back-up catcher role).

Overall on the offense, a lot of the value is coming from the gloves, rather than the bats. Just four players who could see meaningful innings this year project as above-average bats: Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Matt Mervis (and the latter three only just barely). They have a ton of guys in the 90 to 100 OPS+ (similar to wRC+) range, but overall there’s just no love here for the bats. SURPRISE! That’s also why we keep screaming for the Cubs to add at least another bat.

In sum, that team on paper right there, according to ZiPS, has the look of a team around .500. Given the rebuilding process, and given the still-can-be-filled holes, I would say that is downright encouraging. The long-stated goal (by me, if not the Cubs) was to see this team as at least an 85-win squad ON PAPER come Spring Training. When you broke down where things stood after last season ended, that was kind of a tall order, but with so much money available to spend and with so much urgency to get there, I thought it was an appropriate, but realistic, goal. I think they’re close. I think with the right last few moves on the offseason, the Cubs can get there.

And once they are there, you have given yourself a real shot at bouncing up toward 87 or 88 or 89 wins – that, in turn, could have you in contention in the division come July, and then all bets are off on how the Cubs might proceed.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – Friday, March 29, 2024

Today's NBA schedule has 12 quality competitions in store. Among those games is the Minnesota Timberwolves playing the Denver Nuggets.NBA prop bets for today's games are available, so if you're interested in placing a bet or building a parlay, you'll...

Updated Elite 8 Odds: UConn Betting Favorite To Win March Madness

There were some great performances last night including a 30-point win by the UConn Huskies sending them to the Elite Eight. Are they the betting favorite to win March Madness? What team is sitting on top of the odds to...

UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

Alabama vs. Clemson: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will take the court for an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM ET,...

Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

We saw some wild games last night as the Sweet 16 started hot as March Madness continues. There are great matchups tonight worth checking out. Take a look at today's March Madness schedule for Friday, March 29. The Sweet 16...

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

more cubs news